Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Category sales turn positive but remain weak
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2010-20
- Consumers cutting back outnumber those eating more
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- Figure 2: Prepared meals consumption, February 2016
- Convenience is foundation, but growth could come from other areas
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- Figure 3: Reasons for eating prepared meals, February 2016
- The opportunities
- For parents, keep it natural, make it easy
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- Figure 4: Desired features, by number of children younger than 18 in household, February 2016
- Wide range of specific health priorities creates targeted opportunities
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- Figure 5: Importance of health attributes, February 2016
- Variety, snacking, customization key to connecting with young adults
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- Figure 6: Attitudes toward prepared meals, any agree, by age, February 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category sales turn positive but remain weak
- Growth in side dishes partially offsets declines in frozen meals
- Increasing interest in cooking could spell trouble for prepared meals
- Meal kit delivery represents competition for premium prepared meals
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category sales turn positive but remain weak
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Growth in side dishes partially offsets declines in frozen meals
- Refrigerated meal sales level off after recent gains
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- Figure 9: Share of prepared meals, by segment, 2013 and 2015
- Frozen meals decline while sides gain strength
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- Figure 10: Sales of prepared meals, by segment, 2010-15
Market Factors
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- Increasing interest in cooking could spell trouble for prepared meals
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- Figure 11: Attitudes/opinions about food, any agree, May 2006-June 2015
- Prepared meal consumption resonates among households with children
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- Figure 12: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for prepared meals/sides
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- Figure 13: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Market Perspective
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- Meal kit delivery represents competition for premium prepared meals
- A widening array of meal-kit options
- Leveraging prepared-meal advantages
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Nestle and ConAgra lead category but leave ample room for others
- Catering to specific dietary needs
- Value position may hold less appeal as people look to eat better
Manufacturer Sales of Prepared Meals
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- Nestle and ConAgra lead category but leave ample room for others
- Pinnacle Foods gains with Birds Eye
- Private label on the rise, but presence varies widely by segment
- Manufacturer sales of prepared meals
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- Figure 14: Manufacturer sales of prepared meals, 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Catering to specific dietary needs
- New cuisine exploration
What’s Struggling?
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- Dieting brands struggle to redefine themselves amid changing attitudes
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- Figure 15: Lean Cuisine #WeightThis video, 2016
- Growth stalls for refrigerated meals
- Value position may hold less appeal as people look to eat better
What’s Next?
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- Bridging the gap between prepared meals and meal kits
- “Snackification” of meals
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers cutting back outnumber those eating more
- Convenience is foundation, but growth may come from other areas
- Dinner still the top use occasion, but snacks could be path to growth
- A push for all natural ingredients
- Wide range of specific health priorities creates targeted opportunities
- More nutrition information, less processing
Changes in Prepared Meals Consumption
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- Consumers cutting back outnumber those eating more
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- Figure 16: Prepared meals consumption, February 2016
- Younger men more likely to be increasing consumption
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- Figure 17: Consumption of frozen meals that serve one, by gender and age, February 2016
- Higher-income consumers increasing consumption
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- Figure 18: Consumption of frozen meals that serve one, by household income, February 2016
- Consumption increases with number of children in home
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- Figure 19: Consumption of frozen meals that serve one, by number of children younger than 18 in household, February 2016
- Hispanic consumers likely to be increasing prepared meal consumption
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- Figure 20: Consumption of frozen meals that serve one, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2016
Reasons for Eating Prepared Meals
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- Convenience is foundation, but growth could come from other areas
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- Figure 21: Reasons for eating prepared meals, February 2016
- Taste and variety could drive increases in consumption
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- Figure 22: Reasons for eating prepared meals, by consumption of frozen meals that serve one, February 2016
- For younger men, it’s all about taste
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- Figure 23: Reasons for eating prepared meals, by gender and age, February 2016
When Prepared Meals are Eaten
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- Dinner still the top use occasion, but snacks could be path to growth
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- Figure 24: When prepared meals are eaten, February 2016
- Young men more likely to snack on prepared meals
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- Figure 25: When prepared meals are eaten, by gender and age, February 2016
Desired Features
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- A push for all natural ingredients
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- Figure 26: Desired features, February 2016
- Natural ingredients especially important young adults
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- Figure 27: Desired features, by gender and age, February 2016
- For parents, keep it natural, make it easy
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- Figure 28: Desired features, by number of children younger than 18 in household, February 2016
Importance of Health Attributes
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- Wide range of specific health priorities creates targeted opportunities
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- Figure 29: Importance of health attributes, February 2016
- Traditional low/no claims most appealing to older adults
- Young adults more likely to focus on added nutrition
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- Figure 30: Importance of health attributes, by age, February 2016
Attitudes toward Prepared Meals
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- More nutrition information, less processing
- Store brand opportunity
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- Figure 31: Attitudes toward prepared meals, any agree, February 2016
- Variety, snacking, customization key to connecting with young adults
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- Figure 32: Attitudes toward prepared meals, any agree, by age, February 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 34: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 35: Total US sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 36: Total US sales and forecast of multiserve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 37: Total US sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Total US sales and forecast of frozen side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 39: Total US sales and forecast of refrigerated side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 40: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
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- Figure 41: US supermarket sales of prepared meals, at current prices, 2010-15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 42: MULO sales of single-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 43: MULO sales of multi-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 44: MULO sales of refrigerated meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 45: MULO sales of frozen side dishes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 46: MULO sales of refrigerated side dishes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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