Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Seasonal events market sizes
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- Figure 1: Estimated Autumn/Winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2015
- Retail sales in autumn/winter
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- Figure 2: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by autumn/winter months, 2013-15
- The consumer
- Bonfire Night purchasing overshadowed by Halloween
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- Figure 3: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
- UK consumers get in the spirit of Halloween
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- Figure 4: Participation in Halloween activities, December 2015
- The supermarkets dominate
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- Figure 5: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
- A third spent more on Halloween in 2015
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
- 80% of parents purchase for back-to-school
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- Figure 7: Products purchased for the start of the 2015-16 school year, December 2015
- Amazon ranks third for back-to-school purchasing
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- Figure 8: Retailers used for purchasing for the start of the 2015-16 school term, nets, December 2015
- Parents are willing to trade up on school uniform
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards back-to-school, December 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What are the prospects for the back-to-school market?
- The facts
- The implications
- What is driving growth in the Halloween market?
- The facts
- The implications
- How have the supermarkets fared? What are the opportunities and challenges facing them?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Seasonal events market size
- Favourable economic conditions
- Change to school leaving age legislation
Market Size
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- Favourable economic conditions
- Back-to-school worth £580 million
- Changes to school leaving age legislation
- Halloween delivers strong growth
- Bonfire Night overshadowed by other events
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- Figure 10: Estimated Autumn/Winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2015
Retail Sales across the Year
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- Autumn takes greatest share of retail spend
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- Figure 11: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2015
- By month, December dominates by far…
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- Figure 12: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
- …yet, in 2015, December sales were down year on year
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- Figure 13: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
- Retail sales by category
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- Figure 14: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2014-15
- Autumn and winter events in focus
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- Figure 15: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by autumn/winter months, 2013-15
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- Figure 16: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
Online Retail Sales across the Year
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- November is the biggest month for online
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- Figure 17: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, monthly, 2014-15
- Figure 18: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2014 and 2015
- January boasts highest year-on-year growth
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- Figure 19: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
- Online retail sales by category
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- Figure 20: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2014 and 2015
Advertising Spend across the Year
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- Advertising peaks in November
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- Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, 2015
- Figure 22: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, monthly as a % of total spending, 2015
- Back-to-school advertising: M&S focuses on innovation
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- Figure 23: Selected leading retailers’ above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on back-to-school products, 2013-15
- Figure 24: Marks and Spencer’s ‘First Day of School’ television advert, 2015
- Halloween advertising: Asda leads the pack
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- Figure 25: Selected leading retailers’ above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on Halloween products, 2013-15
- Figure 26: Asda’s Halloween-related Facebook posts, 2015
- Bonfire Night advertising: Morrisons investment pays off
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- Figure 27: Selected leading retailers’ above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure around Bonfire Night, 2013-15
- Television is the dominant channel
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- Figure 28: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers during the autumn and winter months, by media type, 2015
- Nielsen Media Research coverage
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Back-to-school
- Marks and Spencer’s innovative approach
- Aldi introduces most affordable uniform to date
- Sainsbury’s launches Tu online in time for autumn/winter events
- Pep&Co and FG4 take on school wear market
- Halloween
- The Co-op’s ‘Local Shop of Horrors’
- Nisa to ‘have a hoot’ this Halloween
- Asda’s augmented reality monster campaign
- Harrods’ Halloween themed conserves
- Other events
- Tesco joins in Diwali celebrations
- Tesco celebrates the nations for Rugby World Cup
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Bonfire Night purchasing overshadowed by Halloween
- Parents of young children and Millennials drive seasonal spend
- One in five young Millennials dresses up on Halloween
- Supermarkets dominate
- A third spent more on Halloween in 2015
- Pet owners are a key demographic for retailers to target
- 80% of parents purchase for back-to-school
- Amazon gains more back-to-school shoppers than Sainsbury’s
- Parents shop around the lowest prices…
- …yet they are willing to pay more for school uniform innovations
- Millennial parents the most influenced by advertising
Halloween and Bonfire Night – Purchasing
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- Four in ten spend on Halloween
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- Figure 29: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
- Parents and Millennials are the key consumer groups
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- Figure 30: Product purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night - parents, non-parents and Millennials, December 2015
- Halloween generates multiple product purchases
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- Figure 31: Repertoire of types of product purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
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- Figure 32: Repertoire of product types purchased for Halloween – Parents, December 2015
- Amount spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night
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- Figure 33: Amount spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
Participation in Halloween Activities
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- 13% of UK consumers carved a pumpkin
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- Figure 34: Participation in Halloween activities, December 2015
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- Figure 35: Participation in Halloween activities and products purchased for Halloween, December 2015
- East Midlands the least interested in Halloween activities
- One in five young Millennials dresses up for the occasion
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- Figure 36: Activities participated in for Halloween – Parents of young children, December 2015
Halloween and Bonfire Night – Retailers Used
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- Supermarkets dominate
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- Figure 37: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, nets, December 2015
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- Figure 38: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
- Discount sector take on the supermarkets
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- Figure 39: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
- Profile of Halloween shoppers
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- Figure 40: Profile of consumers who purchased for Halloween in 2015, by retailers shopped at, December 2015
- Profile of Bonfire Night shoppers
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- Figure 41: Profile of consumers who purchased for Bonfire Night in 2015, by retailers shopped at, December 2015
Attitudes towards Halloween and Bonfire Night
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- A third spent more on Halloween in 2015
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards Halloween, December 2015
- Majority of Halloween shoppers plan their purchases
- Pet owners are a key demographic for retailers to target
- Consumers re-use their existing fancy dress
- Bonfire Night: Organised displays are the preference
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards Bonfire Night, December 2015
Back-to-School – Purchasing
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- Products purchased for the start of the 2015 term
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- Figure 44: Products purchased for the start of the 2015-16 school year, December 2015
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- Figure 45: Products purchased for the start of the 2015-16 school year, by the age of parent’s children, December 2015
- Teenagers drive stationery purchases
- Who’s buying the most?
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- Figure 46: Repertoire of product types purchased for back-to-school, December 2015
Back-to-School – Amount Spent
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- Just under £100 spent on uniform
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- Figure 47: Amount spent on back-to-school products, December 2015
- Average spend grows in 2015
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- Figure 48: Percentage change in average spend on back-to-school products, by category, 2014-15, November 2014 and December 2015
Back-to-School – Retailers Used
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- Tesco and Asda resonate well with parents
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- Figure 49: Retailers used for purchasing for the start of the 2015-16 school term, nets, December 2015
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- Figure 50: Retailers used for purchasing for the start of the 2015-16 school term, nets, December 2015
- Discounters overtake specialists
- Profile of back-to-school shoppers
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- Figure 51: Profile of consumers who purchased for back-to-school in 2015, by retailers shopped at, December 2015
Attitudes towards Back-to-School
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- Parents make considered back-to-school purchases
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- Figure 52: Attitudes towards back-to-school, December 2015
- Parents willing to trade up on uniform
- Millennial parents the most influenced by advertising
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- Figure 53: Attitude to the statement “Seeing a 'back-to-school' advertising campaign has encouraged me to buy from a particular store” - Older Millennials and Generation X, December 2015
- ABs choose retailers that offer personalisation
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- Figure 54: Marks and Spencer’s ‘Make it Personalised’ offer on its back-to-school online homepage, 2015
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Market sizes
- VAT
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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