Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Pace of dollar sales growth slows
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2010-20
- More than a quarter of consumers are buying less chocolate than a year ago
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- Figure 2: Change in chocolate purchase, December 2015
- Snack size, gift box, sugar-free segments struggle
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- Figure 3: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2010-20
- The opportunities
- Growth in the mature category can come from boosting consumption occasions/frequency
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- Figure 4: Chocolate consumption, December 2015
- Half of US adults buy seasonal-themed chocolate
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- Figure 5: Chocolate purchase – Net – Format, December 2015
- Opportunity exists to grow chocolate sales online, especially seasonal chocolate
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- Figure 6: Purchase location, by chocolate segment purchased, December 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dollar sales of chocolate confectionery grew 23% from 2012-15, but the pace is slowing
- Boxes/bags/bars >3.5 oz maintain largest share, seasonal sees strongest growth
- Snack size, gift box, sugar-free segments struggle
- Snacking benefits the category, but young consumers are open to getting their chocolate fix from nonconfectionery sources
- Opportunity exists to boost online sales
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dollar sales of chocolate confectionery grew 23% from 2012-15
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Boxes/bags/bars >3.5 oz maintain largest share, seasonal chocolate sees the strongest growth
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- Figure 10: Share of total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
- “Other” sales channels maintain the largest share and are growing
- Boosting chocolate’s health profile can help retailers meet the needs of consumers
- Opportunity exists to boost online sales
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- Figure 11: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by retail channel, 2010 and 2015 (est)
Market Perspective
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- Snacking benefits the category, but young consumers are open to getting their chocolate fix from nonconfectionery sources
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- Figure 12: Nonconfectionery chocolate, by generation, December 2015
- Consumers view chocolate as healthier than other candy/snack options
- Preserving relevance by expanding beyond confectionery
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- Figure 13: Health ranking – Mean, December 2015
Market Factors
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- Obesity remains a big issue meaning health should be a consideration
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- Figure 14: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2-19 years: US, 1999-2000 through 2013-14
- Figure 15: Current diet status, July 2015
- Candy consumption up slightly among adults/kids; down for teens
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- Figure 16: Chocolate and other candy consumption, 2011-15
- Millennials represent a large consumer base, can drive the future of the category
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- Figure 17: US population by generation, 2010-20
- Households with children on the decline overall
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- Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Growth in the mature category can come from boosting consumption frequency
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- Figure 19: Chocolate consumption, December 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Hershey continues to dominate, little change among category leaders
- Major manufacturers make a move to improve healthfulness of products
- Seasonal claims are frequently featured in new products
- Plain launches decline by 5% 2012-16
Manufacturer Sales of Chocolate Confectionery
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- Hershey continues to dominate, little change among category leaders
- Market leaders work to improve perception of health, move to eliminate artificial ingredients
- Hershey’s Brookside focuses on clean/natural; adds bars to the lineup
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- Figure 20: “Read all About It,” online video, February 2016
- Manufacturer sales of chocolate confectionery
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of chocolate confectionery, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- More than a third of chocolate launches carry a seasonal claim, health/quality claims see uptick
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- Figure 22: Chocolate launches, by leading claims, 2012 and 2016*
- Valentine’s chocolate sees strong product launch growth
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- igure 23: Seasonal chocolate launches, by holiday, 2012 and 2016*
- Younger consumers embrace store brand chocolate
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- Figure 24: Chocolate purchase – Net – Store brand, by generation group, December 2015
- Mix-ins and flavored launches outperform plain
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- Figure 25: Chocolate launches, by leading flavors, February 2015-January 2016
- Store brand purchase not necessarily driven solely by a pursuit of cost savings
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- Figure 26: Chocolate purchase – Net – Store brand, by HH income, December 2015
What’s Struggling?
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- Snack size, gift box, sugar-free segments struggle
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- Figure 27: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2010-20
What’s Next?
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- Natural channel trends can inform market direction
- Organic, Fair Trade, and non-GMO sales grow
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- Figure 28: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by organic ingredients*, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
- Figure 29: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by fair trade certification, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
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- Figure 30: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
- Flavor and mix-in innovation may be an attention getter
- Latin America
- Asia
- Chocolate confectionery can remain relevant through adoption of foodie trends
- Sea salt
- Smoked
- Beer
- Yogurt
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 81% of adults purchase chocolate
- More than a quarter of consumers are buying less chocolate than a year ago
- Half of US adults buy seasonal-themed chocolate
- Half of chocolate buyers do so for snacking
- Chocolate gets a pass, but consumers need some assurance
Chocolate Purchase
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- 81% of adults purchase chocolate
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- Figure 31: Chocolate purchase, December 2015
- Individual candy bars lead, nonindividually wrapped pieces gain favor
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- Figure 32: Chocolate purchase – Net, by segment, December 2015
- Millennials appear as a key consumer group
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- Figure 33: Chocolate purchase – Net, by generation group, December 2015
- Purchase generally correlates with HH income
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- Figure 34: Chocolate purchase – Net, by HH income, December 2015
- Black and Asian respondents are less likely than average to purchase chocolate
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- Figure 35: Chocolate purchase – Net, by race, December 2015
- 90% of parents purchase chocolate
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- Figure 36: Chocolate purchase – Net, by parental status, December 2015
- Men are strong targets for gift boxes
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- Figure 37: Chocolate purchase – Net, by gender, December 2015
Change in Purchase
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- More than a quarter of consumers are buying less chocolate than a year ago
- Health leads reasons for reduction
- . . . but price is also a factor to consider
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- Figure 38: Change in chocolate purchase, December 2015
- Millennials among the most likely to be reducing chocolate purchases
- Appealing to Millennials through innovation
- Millennials appear price conscious, but can be swayed by quality
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- Figure 39: Change in chocolate purchase, by generation, December 2015
Types of Chocolate Purchased
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- Half of US adults buy seasonal-themed chocolate
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- Figure 40: Chocolate purchase – Net – Format, December 2015
- Individual bars do well for the holidays
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- Figure 41: Chocolate purchase – Net – Format, December 2015
- Seasonal
- Seasonal particularly resonates with younger consumers
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- Figure 42: Chocolate purchase – Net – Seasonal, by generation, December 2015
- . . . may appear as a luxury
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- Figure 43: Chocolate purchase – Net – Seasonal, by HH income, December 2015
- Mix-ins
- Mix-ins may be perceived as an upgrade, appeal to key populations
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- Figure 44: Chocolate purchase – Net – Mix-in, solid, by HH income, December 2015
- . . . find strong appeal among Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 45: Chocolate purchase – Net – Mix-in, solid, by Hispanic origin and Millennial status, December 2015
- Dark chocolate
- Dark chocolate may meet the health needs of older consumers
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- Figure 46: Chocolate purchase – Net – Dark chocolate, by generation, December 2015
- Variety
- Variety is a strong selling point for Millennials
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- Figure 47: Chocolate purchase – Net – Variety packs, by generation, December 2015
- Organic/Single-Origin/Fair Trade
- Responsible chocolate attributes appeal to Millennials
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- Figure 48: Chocolate purchase – Net – Organic, single-origin, fair trade, by generation, December 2015
- . . . especially Millennial parents
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- Figure 49: Chocolate purchase – Net – Organic, single-origin, fair trade, by parental status and millennial status, December 2015
- Responsible positioning appears as a luxury
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- Figure 50: Chocolate purchase – Net – Organic, single-origin, fair trade, by HH income, December 2015
- Organic finds greatest appeal in West, Northeast
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- Figure 51: Chocolate purchase – Net – Organic, single-origin, fair trade, by region, December 2015
Chocolate Occasions
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- Half of chocolate buyers do so for snacking
- Holidays also have a strong draw, but “everyday” products will be key
- Expanding gifting opportunities and chocolate for dessert
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- Figure 52: Chocolate occasions, December 2015
- Women are strong targets for chocolate gifting/holiday purchase
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- Figure 53: Chocolate occasions – Gifting/holidays, by gender, December 2015
- Women are more likely to plan indulgence, men look for energy/on-the-go
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- Figure 54: Chocolate occasions – Planned/energy/on-the-go, by gender, December 2015
- Chocolate gifting of interest to Millennials, but holidays have greater appeal among older shoppers
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- Figure 55: Chocolate occasions – Gifting/holidays, by generation group, December 2015
- Millennials look for an emotional/physical pick-me-up
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- Figure 56: Chocolate occasions – Reward/energy/mood, by generation group, December 2015
- Affordable varieties can meet the needs of snackers and impulse buyers
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- Figure 57: Chocolate occasions – Snack/dessert, by HH income , December 2015
- Figure 58: Chocolate occasions – Planned/energy/reward, by HH income , December 2015
- . . . while premiumization can work for gifting
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- Figure 59: Chocolate occasions – Gifting/holidays, by HH income , December 2015
- Mood and energy boosting positioning can appeal to parents
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- Figure 60: Chocolate occasions – Mood/energy, by parental status, December 2015
Purchase Location
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- More than half of chocolate buyers do so at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 61: Purchase location, December 2015
- One in five Millennial chocolate buyers do so from an online retailer
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- Figure 62: Purchase location, by generation, December 2015
- Online retailers don’t appear as an affordable option
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- Figure 63: Purchase location, by HH income, December 2015
- Opportunity exists to grow seasonal chocolate sales online
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- Figure 64: Purchase location, by chocolate segment purchased, December 2015
- Mass merchandisers are a mecca for unplanned chocolate purchases
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- Figure 65: Purchase location, by chocolate occasion, December 2015
Role of Health in Chocolate Purchase
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- 20% of respondents think chocolate candy is unhealthy, but buy it anyway
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- Figure 66: Role of health, December 2015
- Health does not play a role in the purchase decision of the majority of chocolate buyers
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- Figure 67: Why health does not play a role, December 2015
- Premiumization can limit flight caused from health concerns
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- Figure 68: How health plays a role, December 2015
- 20% of consumers are willing to pay more for healthier chocolate
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- Figure 69: Role of health, December 2015
- Millennials have higher opinion of premium chocolate
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- Figure 70: Role of health, by generation group, December 2015
- Health more likely to play a role among higher-income earners
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- Figure 71: Role of health, by HH income, December 2015
- . . . and when kids are involved
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- Figure 72: Role of health, by parental status, December 2015
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- Figure 73: Role of health, by purchase for child, December 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 74: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 75: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 76: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 77: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of snack size, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 78: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of snack size, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 79: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 80: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of gift box chocolate, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 81: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of gift box chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 82: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 83: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of seasonal chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 84: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar-free chocolate, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 85: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar-free chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 86: Chocolate launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
- Figure 87: US supermarket sales of chocolate, at current prices, 2010-15 (est)
- Figure 88: US drug store sales of chocolate, at current prices, 2010-15 (est)
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- Figure 89: Other US retail channel sales of chocolate, at current prices, 2010-15 (est)
- Figure 90: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2–19 years: United States, 1999–2000 through 2013–14
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- Figure 91: Seasonal chocolate launches, by holiday, 2012-16*
- Figure 92: Chocolate and other candy consumption, 2011-15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 93: MULO sales of chocolate bars/bags/boxes < 3.5oz, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 94: MULO sales of chocolate bars/bags/boxes > 3.5oz, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 95: MULO sales of snack size chocolate, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 96: MULO sales of gift box chocolate, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 97: MULO sales of seasonal chocolate, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 98: MULO sales of sugar-free chocolate, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 99: Chocolate launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
- Figure 100: Chocolate launches, by leading pack types, 2012-16*
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- Figure 101: Chocolate launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
- Figure 102: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by organic ingredients*, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
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- Figure 103: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by gluten-free labelling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
- Figure 104: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
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- Figure 105: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
- Figure 106: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by fair trade certification, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
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- Figure 107: Share of natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by vegan, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
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