Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Consumers choosing other types of shops over oil-change retail
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- Figure 1: Oil-change retail locations, October 2015
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- Figure 2: Oil-change retail locations, October 2015
- Consumers not using oil-change retail shops lately
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- Figure 3: Oil-change retail locations, October 2015
- The opportunities
- Location, location, location
- Consumers are drawn by coupons
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- Figure 4: Factors in decision to visit an oil-change facility, October 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Oil-change retail market poised to dip
- New cars need oil changes less
- Aging vehicle fleet could bring more business into shops
Market Size and Forecast
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- Oil change retail market forecast to shrink
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- Figure 5: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Perspective
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- DIY market can impact oil changes
Market Factors
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- Personal income and consumption have major effect on oil-change retail market
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- Figure 7: Personal income (by months), 2015
- Growing new-car market will impact oil-change retail market
- Aging vehicle fleet may offset other factors
- Miles driven is increasing
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- Figure 8: Percentage change in cumulative monthly travel, 2014 vs 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers show loyalty to shops used in the past
- Location, location,, location
- Consumers follow cues on when to change their oil
- Consumers favor local shops for oil changes
- Autonomous or electric cars could portend change
What’s Working?
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- Consumers go to the same shop for oil changes
- Location really does matter
- Consumers are trained on when to get their oil changed
What’s Struggling?
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- Consumers see quality difference between franchise and local shops
- Consumers more likely to say local shops are best for oil changes
What’s Next?
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- Autonomous or electric cars could sink the market
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Dealerships and local shops are outpacing retail chains
- Location, price matter
- Consumers do think that oil-change retail shops do quality work
- Consumers make use of oil-change reminders
Oil-Change Locations Used
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- Consumers use dealerships, big-name chains
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- Figure 9: Past oil-change retail location, October 2015
- Older consumers more likely to visit dealerships
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- Figure 10: Last oil-change location, by age, October 2015
- Hispanics less likely to visit dealerships
Plans for Next Oil Change
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- Dealerships and local shops trump oil-change retail shops
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- Figure 11: Next oil-change location, October 2015
- New-car buyers more likely to go to dealership
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- Figure 12: Next oil-change location, by new car, October 2015
- Women more likely to use dealerships for next oil change
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- Figure 13: Next oil-change location, by gender, October 2015
- Blacks more likely to visit dealerships than Hispanics or Whites
Factors Influencing Choice of Oil-Change Shop
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- Location, coupons bring consumers in
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- Figure 14: Factors in decision to visit an oil-change facility, October 2015
- Men more influenced by TV ads than women
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- Figure 15: Factors in decision to visit an oil-change facility, by gender, October 2015
- Younger consumers more influenced by recommendations
Knowledge of When to Change Oil
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- Consumers trust certain cues for oil-change timing
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- Figure 16: Knowing when to change oil, October 2015
- Women more likely to rely on oil-change sticker
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- Figure 17: Knowing when to change oil, October 2015
- Hispanic consumers use mileage as a prompt
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- Figure 18: Knowing when to change oil, by race, October 2015
Attitudes toward Oil Changes
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- Consumers think that retail shops do quality work
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- Figure 19: Oil-change habits, October 2015
- Men more likely to trust oil-change retailers
Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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