Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Shelf-stable grocery fueling center-store sales growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2010-20
- Restaurant usage rising with increasing discretionary income
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- Figure 2: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
- Food deserts point to potential for center-store foods
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- Figure 3: Grocery purchase locations, by area, November 2015
- The opportunities
- Organic and local claims could revive shelf-stable grocery sections
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- Figure 4: Opinions of center of the store, by age, November 2015
- Store center organization could influence shoppers
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- Figure 5: Opinions of center of the store, by grocery shopping responsibility, November 2015
- Hispanic Millennials more likely to embrace center-of-the-store foods at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 6: Opinions of center of the store, by Hispanic origin and generation, November 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales growing in center of the store
- Shelf-stable grocery leading sales growth in the center of the store
- Restaurants an increasing competitor to prepared meals found at the store center
- Food desert dwellers find alternatives to traditional supermarkets
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of center-of-the-store categories growing, largely due to shelf-stable grocery
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- Figure 7: MULO sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US MULO sales and forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Shelf-stable grocery growth outweighs frozen’s demise
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- Figure 9: MULO sales and forecast of center of store, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Shelf-stable grocery meeting wellness expectations
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- Figure 10: MULO sales and forecast of shelf-stable grocery, at current prices, 2010-20
- Frozen food sales chill
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- Figure 11: MULO sales and forecast of frozen food, at current prices, 2010-20
- Grab-and-go provides a quicker, fresher option for time-crunched consumers
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- Figure 12: Agreement with attitudes toward snacking, by household income, January 2015
Market Perspective
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- Perimeter perception impacting center-store sales
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- Figure 13: Attitudes toward shopping at grocery specialty counters – Any agree, by presence of children in household, April 2014
- Kroger’s simple approach to a natural center
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- Figure 14: Kroger’s Simple Truth Organic Pomegranate Blueberry Chia Granola Clusters
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- Figure 15: Kroger’s Simple Truth Organic White Cheddar Macaroni & Cheese
- Definition of a snack evolves to include fresh foods
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- Figure 16: Snacks eaten in past six months – Any consumption, top five, November 2013
Market Factors
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- Food deserts point to potential for center-store foods
- Consumers finding meals in foodservice
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- Figure 17: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
- Figure 18: Barriers to restaurant usage, by region, April 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Processed products hard-pressed to resonate with health-oriented consumers
- Frozen snacks decline, as major players struggle
- Healthy options boost sales of snacks
- Cereal options expand healthy attributes
- Boon for breakfast items
- GMO no-go
Manufacturer Sales of Center of the Store
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- Processed perception negatively impacting prepared meal/side sales
- Manufacturer sales of prepared meals and sides
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of prepared meals/sides, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Leading frozen snack brands struggle
- Manufacturer sales of frozen snacks
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of frozen snacks, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
- Snacks grow sales as healthier options emerge
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of salty snacks, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
- Cereals add protein to boost health profile
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Breakfast options ease morning mealtime
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of Marie Callender's, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Figure 24: Hormel Compleats Good Mornings Ham Breakfast Scramble
- Figure 25: Jimmy Dean Breakfast Bowl Chorizo Breakfast
- Sides take center stage
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of Nestle’s Stouffer’s Side Dish Collection and Pinnacle Foods Group’s Birds Eye Steamfresh, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Portability compels handheld options
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of Smucker’s Uncrustables, 52-weeks ending Dec. 28, 2014
- Snacks diversify offerings
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- Figure 28: Simply Cheetos White Cheddar Puffed Corn
- Figure 29: Pop Secret Homestyle Butter Popcorn
What’s Struggling?
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- Frozen meals falling
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- Figure 30: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen meals, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Weight management not managing well in frozen meals
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of Lean Cuisine and HJ Heinz Weight Watchers Smart Ones, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Frozen snacks need focus
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of TGI Friday’s frozen appetizers, rolling 52-weeks 2012-14, in millions
What’s Next?
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- Bringing snacks to breakfast
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- Figure 33: Hot Pockets Breakfast Bites Sausage, Egg & Cheese Biscuit Crust Bites
- Avoiding GMOs
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- Figure 34: Lucky Kale with Cranberries Spring Rolls
- Figure 35: Amy's Cheese Pizza Bites
- Boasting biodynamic
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- Figure 36: Amy's Bowls Biodynamic Vegetable Penne & Marinara
- Figure 37: Lundberg Biodynamic Organic Short Grain Brown Rice
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers looking beyond grocery for foods
- Indulgence could propel consumers to the store center
- Opportunity for center-store foods to reach Millennial Hispanics
- Fathers shop the store center
- Stigma surrounds the center
Shopping Responsibility and Center-of-the-Store Foods
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- Primary shoppers turning to mass retailers for center-of-the-store foods
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- Figure 38: Grocery purchase locations, any rank, by grocery shopping responsibility, November 2015
- Potential for local brands in drug store food aisles
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- Figure 39: Opinions of center of the store, any agree, by drug store purchases of foods and beverages, November 2015
Purchase Locations
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- Online could be the next center versus perimeter battleground
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- Figure 40: Grocery purchase locations, November 2015
- Consumers expanding notions of where they purchase center-of-the-store foods
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- Figure 41: Grocery purchase locations, by age, November 2015
- Black consumers more apt to turn to dollar/discount, drug stores for center-store foods
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- Figure 42: Grocery purchase locations, by race, November 2015
- Lower incomes looking to dollar stores for food options
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- Figure 43: Grocery purchase locations – Any rank 1-5, by income, November 2015
- Hispanics shopping wide variety of store types for groceries
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- Figure 44: Grocery purchase locations, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2015
Center-of-the-Store Categories Purchased
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- Frozen, cereals top the store-center categories purchased
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- Figure 45: Grocery department use, November 2015
- Fresh options cutting into packaged/processed goods
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- Figure 46: Grocery department use, by age, November 2015
- Frozen produce resonates with black consumers
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- Figure 47: Grocery department use, by race, November 2015
- Hispanic non-Millennials opt for canned
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- Figure 48: Grocery department use, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2015
Perceptions Impacting Store Center
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- Customization could lead consumers to the store center
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- Figure 49: Opinions of center of the store, November 2015
- Fresh perspective on center-store
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- Figure 50: Opinions of center of the store, Any agree, by age, November 2015
- Store center organization could influence shoppers
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- Figure 51: Opinions of center of the store, by grocery shopping responsibility, Any agree, November 2015
Consumer Opinions of Center-of-the-Store Foods
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- Nutrition could key center’s rebound
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- Figure 52: Center-of-the-store attributes, November 2015
- Processed perception proves problematic
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- Figure 53: Center-of-the-store attributes, by age, November 2015
- Healthy center options could embrace ethnic flavors
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- Figure 54: Center-of-the-store attributes, by race, November 2015
- Foods for fathers could cater to tradition
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- Figure 55: Center-of-the-store attributes, by parental status, November 2015
- Center-store foods resonating more with Hispanic Millennials than non-Millennials
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- Figure 56: Center-of-the-store attributes, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2015
Health Demands on Center-of-the-Store Items
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- Locally sourced items could boost center of the store with young consumers
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- Figure 57: Opinions of center of the store, by age, November 2015
- Indulgence claims could resonate in certain center-store categories
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- Figure 58: Opinions of center of the store, by age, November 2015
- Shopping responsibility relates to center-store perception
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- Figure 59: Opinions of center of the store, by grocery shopping responsibility, November 2015
Usage of the Center of the Store
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- Consumers suggest potential for revamped store center
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- Figure 60: Opinions of center of the store, by age, November 2015
- Higher-income households looking beyond traditional supermarkets
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- Figure 61: Opinions of center of the store, by income, November 2015
- Households with children seek to ease grocery shopping
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- Figure 62: Opinions of center of the store, by presence and age of children in the household, November 2015
- Demanding dads looking to the center of the store
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- Figure 63: Opinions of center of the store, by parental status, November 2015
- Hispanic Millennials more likely to embrace center-of-the-store foods
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- Figure 64: Opinions of center of the store, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2015
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 65: Center-of-the-store clusters, November 2015
- Group one: Fresh Finders
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- Figure 66: Opinions of center of the store, by fresh-minded consumers, November 2015
- Group two: Loyals
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- Figure 67: Opinions of center of the store, by center-loyal consumers, November 2015
- Group three: Center Shoppers
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- Figure 68: Opinions of center of the store, by demographics, November 2015
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 69: MULO sales and forecast of center of store, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 70: MULO sales and forecast of center of store, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 71: MULO sales and forecast of shelf-stable grocery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 72: MULO sales and forecast of frozen food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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