Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Prepared meals/sides sales languish
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals and sides, at current prices, 2010-20
- Sides capitalize on meal declines
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals and side dishes, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- The opportunities
- Three quarters of consumers eating the same or more prepared meals than a year ago
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- Figure 3: Consumption of frozen meals and sides, August 2015
- Parents seek healthier prepared meal options
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- Figure 4: Wants and needs of prepared meals and sides, by presence and number of children in household, August 2015
- Prepared meal price resonates particularly with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 5: Reasons for eating prepared meals or sides, by Hispanic origin and Millennial generation, August 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales falling in prepared meals
- Sides emerge as consumer usage expands
- Foodservice competing against prepared meals/sides
Market Size and Forecast
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- Prepared meals/sides sales stall
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals and sides, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Side dishes emerge, as meals decline
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals and side dishes, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Natural sector sees added frozen entrée sales
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- Figure 9: Natural supermarket sales of prepared entrees, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Sept 2013-Sept 2015
- Figure 10: Natural supermarket sales of prepared entrees, by presence of GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Sept. 8, 2013, and Sept. 6, 2015
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- Figure 11: Natural supermarket sales of prepared entrees, by organic ingredients, at current prices, Sept. 6, 2015; % change versus rolling 52-weeks ending Sept. 8, 2013
Market Perspective
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- Consumers finding meals in foodservice
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- Figure 12: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
- Figure 13: Barriers to restaurant usage, by region, April 2015
Market Factors
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- Prepared meal consumption resonates among households with children
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- Figure 14: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for prepared meals/sides
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- Figure 15: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Processed products hard-pressed to resonate with health-oriented consumers
- Frozen meals chill
- Biodynamic, the next organic?
Manufacturer Sales of Prepared Meals and Sides
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- Processed perception negatively impacting prepared meal/side sales
- Manufacturer sales of prepared meals and sides
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- Figure 16: MULO sales of prepared meals and sides, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Breakfast options ease morning mealtime
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of Marie Callender's, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Figure 18: Hormel Compleats Good Mornings Ham Breakfast Scramble
- Figure 19: Jimmy Dean Breakfast Bowl Chorizo Breakfast
- Making the most of multiserve
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of Pinnacle Foods Group Birds Eye, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Sides take center stage
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of Nestle’s Stouffer’s Side Dish Collection, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Figure 22: MULO sales of Pinnacle Foods Group’s Birds Eye Steamfresh, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Figure 23: Total US retail sales of prepared meals and side dishes, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
What’s Struggling?
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- Weight management not managing well
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of Lean Cuisine, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Figure 25: MULO sales of HJ Heinz Weight Watchers Smart Ones, 52-weeks ending July 12, 2015
- Frozen meals falling
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- Figure 26: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen meals, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
What’s Next?
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- Free-from for all
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- Figure 27: TruRoots Multigrain Curry Rice
- Figure 28: Van's Natural Foods Gluten Free Ultimate Cheddar Penne Pasta
- Figure 29: Made in Nature Organic Cuban Mojo Ancient Grain Fusion
- Figure 30: Three Bridges Chicken Enchilada Casserole
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- Figure 31: Kahiki StirFresh General Tso's Chicken
- Boasting biodynamic
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- Figure 32: Amy's Bowls Biodynamic Vegetable Penne & Marinara
- Figure 33: Lundberg Biodynamic Organic Short Grain Brown Rice
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumption widespread, but consumers turning away from frozen meals/sides
- Restaurant brands could resonate in retail
- Consumers seeking less-processed meals and sides
Consumption of Frozen Meals and Sides
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- Three quarters of consumers eating the same or more prepared meals than a year ago
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- Figure 34: Consumption of frozen meals and sides, August 2015
- Downward trend in frozen meal consumption continues
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- Figure 35: Number of frozen meals eaten in the last 30 days, Spring 2011 versus Spring 2015
- Healthy attributes could lure those eating less
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- Figure 36: Purchase factors, any top five ranking, by any frozen meal consumption, August 2015
- Households with children eating more prepared meals/sides
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- Figure 37: Consumption of frozen meals and sides, by number of children in household, August 2015
- Frozen meals resonate with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 38: Consumption of frozen meals and sides, by Hispanic origin and generation, August 2015
- Prepared options have room for improvement even among frequent consumers
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- Figure 39: Reasons for consuming prepared meals and sides, by consumption, August 2015
Prepared Meals Factor Mostly at Dinner
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- Prepared meals primarily at dinner
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- Figure 40: Occasions for eating prepared meals and sides, August 2015
- Larger households turn to prepared meals/sides
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- Figure 41: Occasions for consuming prepared meals and sides, by presence and age of children in household, August 2015
- Hispanic flavors could encourage consumption
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- Figure 42: Occasions for consuming prepared meals and sides, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2015
Purchase Factors for Prepared Meals and Side Dishes
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- Calories and vegetables highlight health needs in prepared meals/sides
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- Figure 43: Purchase factors, any rank 1-5, August 2015
- Women 35+ much more likely to weigh sodium levels
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- Figure 44: Purchase factors, any rank 1-5, by gender by age, August 2015
- Different factors for Millennial moms and dads
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- Figure 45: Purchase factors, any rank 1-5, by Millennial parents, August 2015
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- Figure 46: Purchase factors, any rank 1-5, by parents, August 2015
- Hispanics factor fiber in their meal/side choices
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- Figure 47: Purchase factors, any rank 1-5, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2015
Wants and Needs from Prepared Meals and Side Dishes
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- Quality, family-size options appeal
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- Figure 48: Wants and needs of prepared meals and sides, August 2015
- Parents looking for healthier prepared meal options
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- Figure 49: Wants and needs of prepared meals and sides, by presence and number of children in household, August 2015
- Freshness resonates with Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 50: Wants and needs of prepared meals and sides, by Hispanic origin by generation, August 2015
Nutrition, Customization Impact Meal Purchase
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- Nutrition concerns prompt flight from prepared options
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- Figure 51: Opinions of prepared meals and sides, August 2015
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- Figure 52: Opinion and use of frozen meals, April 2010-June 2015
- Processing impacting prepared meal perceptions
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- Figure 53: Opinions of prepared meals and sides, by presence and number of children in household, August 2015
- Customizing potential for Millennial parents
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- Figure 54: Opinions, any agree, by generation by parental status, August 2015
- Meal brands resonate with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 55: Opinions, any agree, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2015
- Luring back meal consumers
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- Figure 56: Purchase factors, any agree by opinions of those eating less prepared meals and sides, August 2015
Convenience, Cuisine Range Impact Prepared Meal Consumption
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- Convenience being a given, other reasons drive prepared meal consumption
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- Figure 57: Reasons for eating prepared meals or sides, August 2015
- International cuisines could resonate with Millennial prepared meal consumers
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- Figure 58: Reasons for eating prepared meals or sides, by age, August 2015
- Prepared meals could introduce young people to new flavors, cuisines
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- Figure 59: Reasons for eating prepared meals or sides, by presence and age of children, August 2015
- Prepared meal price resonates particularly with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 60: Reasons for eating prepared meals or sides, by Hispanic origin and Millennial generation, August 2015
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 61: Prepared meal and side clusters, July 2015
- Group one: Brand buyers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 62: Attitudes and behaviors – Any agree, by target group, July 2015
- Group two: Health hunters
- Opportunities
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- Figure 63: Attitudes and behaviors – Any agree, by target group, July 2015
- Group three: Natural needers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 64: Attitudes and behaviors – Any agree, by target group, July 2015
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals and side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals and side dishes, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals and side dishes, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20 (continued)
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of multiserve frozen meals, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of multiserve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen side dishes, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated side dishes, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales of prepared meals and side dishes, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 79: Total US retail sales of prepared meals and side dishes, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
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- Figure 80: US supermarket sales of prepared meals and side dishes, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 81: US sales of prepared meals and side dishes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 82: Natural supermarket sales of prepared entrees, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Sept. 8, 2013, and Sept. 6, 2015
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- Figure 83: Natural supermarket sales of prepared entrees, by type, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Sept. 8, 2013, and Sept. 6, 2015
- Figure 84: Natural supermarket sales of grain and rices dishes, by type, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Sept. 8, 2013, and Sept. 6, 2015
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 85: MULO sales of single-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 86: MULO sales of multiserve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 87: MULO sales of refrigerated meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 88: MULO sales of frozen sides, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 89: MULO sales of refrigerated sides, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 90: Opinions of frozen meals, prepared meals, Any agree, April 2010-June 2015
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