Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
- Bread’s health credentials remain under scrutiny
- Supermarket price war hits the prepacked sliced loaf
- Increased incomes should support sales
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Brand revamps from leading players
- Warburtons loses sales and reduces spend
- Warburtons and Hovis lead on levels of trust and differentiation
- The consumer
- The packaged sliced loaf sees declining usage
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- Figure 2: Types of bread bought in the past three months, June 2013, May 2014 and May 2015
- Sliced bread remains an everyday option
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- Figure 3: Occasions when bread/baked goods are eaten, by type of product, May 2015
- Health concerns curb bread intake of 31% of infrequent users
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- Figure 4: Reasons for not eating packaged sliced bread more often, May 2015
- Shoppers welcome brands to ISB
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- Figure 5: Interest in bread/bread product concepts, May 2015
Issues and Insights
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- Interest in healthier varieties of bread could help to alleviate concerns
- The facts
- The implications
- Pushing indulgence could help to position bread as more of a treat
- The facts
- The implications
- NPD offers a route to stand out in a crowded and declining market
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Values and volumes decline in 2015
- Bread and baked goods are expected to see a drop over 2015-20
- Bread’s health credentials remain under scrutiny
- Supermarket price war hits the prepacked sliced loaf
- Increased incomes should support sales
Market Size and Forecast
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- Values and volumes decline in 2015
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- Figure 6: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
- Forecast
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- Figure 7: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
- Figure 8: UK retail value volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
Segment Performance
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- Prepacked bread suffers fall in value sales and share
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- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2013-15
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- Figure 10: UK retail volume sales of prepacked bread, 2010-15
- White bread maintains share despite sales fall
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- Figure 11: UK retail sales of prepacked bread, by types, 2014 and 2015
- Sweet baked goods are estimated to see value growth in 2015
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- Figure 12: UK retail sales of sweet baked goods, by type, 2013-15
- Speciality bread sees ongoing rise in sales
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2013-15
Market Drivers
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- Bread’s health credentials remain under scrutiny
- PM reports cutting out bread to lose weight
- Popularity of gluten avoidance affects bread
- SACN recommends starchy carbs and fibre
- Pesticides attract headlines
- Supermarket price war hits the prepacked sliced loaf
- Competition from other products
- Bread loses out on health at breakfast
- Packed lunches under pressure
- Free school lunches for 1.55 million children
- Improving economy should benefit added-value formats
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- Figure 14: Trends in consumers’ current financial situation compared to a year ago, net of “better off” and “worse off”, July 2011-July 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Warburtons loses sales and reduces spend
- Kingsmill suffers sales decline following delisting
- Sweet baked goods and speciality provide a boost
- Warburtons and Hovis lead on levels of trust and differentiation
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 15: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2015
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 16: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2015
- Brand attitudes: Warburtons is seen to offer consistently high quality
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- Figure 17: Attitudes, by brand, June 2015
- Brand personality: Accessibility is key to Warburtons, Kingsmill and Hovis
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- Figure 18: Brand personality – Macro image, June 2015
- Genius and New York Bakery Co stand apart from the other brands
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- Figure 19: Brand personality – Micro image, June 2015
- Brand analysis
- Warburtons is seen to be moving forward by the majority
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- Figure 20: User profile of Warburtons, June 2015
- New York Bakery Co attracts an affluent and urban user base
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- Figure 21: User profile of New York Bakery Co, June 2015
- Hovis has the strongest reputation but is seen to be standing still
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- Figure 22: User profile of Hovis, June 2015
- Kingsmill achieves the highest awareness levels
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- Figure 23: User profile of Kingsmill, June 2015
- Genius stands out as being healthy but also bland
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- Figure 24: User profile of Genius, June 2015
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Brand revamps from leading players
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- Figure 25: UK new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by branded vs private label, 2011-15
- Grocers dominate NPD
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- Figure 26: UK new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies, 2011-15
- Gluten-free launches leap ahead in 2014
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- Figure 27: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by the gluten-free claim, 2011-15
- Shaped baked goods target parents and seasonal occasions
- Thin and smaller formats look to snack occasions
- Efforts to make bread a ‘positive health choice’
- Flavour innovation adds excitement to the category
Market Share
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- Warburtons leads prepacked bread
- Kingsmill suffers a heavy slump
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- Figure 28: Leading brands in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Warburtons the only brand to see a decline in sweet baked goods
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- Figure 29: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Investment in speciality lines boosts brand sales
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- Figure 30: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Bread leads in adspend, pancake and hot cross buns gaining
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- Figure 31: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by product category, 2012-15
- Adspend depends on leading manufacturers
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- Figure 32: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by advertiser, top 10, 2012-15
- Warburtons changes tack in marketing
- Kingsmill continues with the ‘Kingsmill family’
- Hovis plans to step up activity in late 2015
- New York Bakery Co looks to authenticity
- Federation of Bakers ‘hearts’ bread
- Genius goes online
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Purchasing of packaged sliced loaves stands at 80%
- Sliced loaves remain popular for breakfast/lunch
- Health concerns curb bread intake of 31% of infrequent users
- Shoppers welcome brands to ISB
Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods
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- The packaged sliced loaf sees declining usage
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- Figure 33: Types of bread bought in the past three months, 2013-15
- Crumpets remain the most popular within baked goods
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- Figure 34: Types of baked goods bought in the past three months, June 2013, May 2014 and May 2015
- Daily usage of packaged sliced bread and baked goods drops
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- Figure 35: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past three months, June 2013, May 2014 and May 2015
Bread and Baked Goods Occasions
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- Sliced bread remains an everyday option
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- Figure 36: Occasions when bread/baked goods are eaten, by type of product, May 2015
- Baked goods are most popular as a treat/snack
- Associations with meals drive usage of other types of bread such as baguettes
Barriers to Eating Packaged Sliced Bread More Often
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- Health concerns curb bread intake of 31% of infrequent users
- Role for smaller formats, education and low-carb bread
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- Figure 37: Reasons for not eating packaged sliced bread more often, May 2015
- Wheat/gluten avoidance curbs bread intake
- One in four see bread as processed
Interest in Bread/Bread Product Concepts
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- Shoppers welcome brands to ISB
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- Figure 38: Interest in bread/bread product concepts, May 2015
- Superfood ingredients offer positive nutrition
- Packaging solutions look to cater to consumer needs
- On-the-go and smaller packs appeal to three in 10
- NPD fails to cater to interest in high-protein bread/baked products
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Other definitions
- Bread
- Sweet baked goods
- Speciality bread
- Fan chart forecast
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance
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- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2015-20
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