Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Market size
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- Figure 1: UK residential care market, by value, 2011-15 (£ million)
- Figure 2: UK residential care market, by number of registered care homes and number of care home places, 2011-15 (Homes in units and places in 000s)
- Market trends
- Care home fees continue to be squeezed
- Ageing population continues to offer growth potential
- Occupancy rates in residential care homes rise above nursing homes
- Demand for specialist care homes increases due to rise in illnesses that require greater and specific care requirements
- The rise of self-funders in the traditional care home market may be somewhat derailed by fee information becoming public
- Regional analysis
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- Figure 3: Local authority-supported adults in residential and nursing care, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14 (Number of people)
- Market factors
- Demographic trends will provide constant demand for residential care services
- Staff cost differentials apparent despite restrictive financial situation in the industry
- Continued local government budgetary restrictions will place a burden on service provision
- Care home property market offers opportunities, but also challenges
- Companies
- Forecast
- The value of the UK resident care for the elderly market is forecast to increase by a total of 6% by 2020
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- Figure 4: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market, by type of purchaser, 2016-20 (£ million)
- Sheltered housing, including extra care housing, expected to become more popular over the next five years
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- Figure 5: Forecast UK sheltered housing units, 2016-20 (000)
- What we think
Key Insights
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- What has been the impact of public spending cuts on care home fees and industry activity?
- Can supported housing, including housing with extra care, offer a suitable alternative to traditional care homes?
- Will the industry’s workforce cope with future care demands?
UK Economy
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 8: UK GDP, 2004-15 (% quarterly growth and gdp in £ billion)
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- Figure 9: Quarters after GDP peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008 (Number of quarters and GDP as % of pre-downturn peak)
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
- Business investment
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- Figure 10: UK GFCF 2003-15 (£ million)
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key points
- Public sector expenditure restrictions
- Demographics and social trends
- Economic
- Employment trends
- Supported housing
- Legislation
- Care Standards Act
- Regulation and Inspection Bill (Wales)
- The Care Act 2014 and Better Care Fund
- CQC and market oversight
- Care Certificate
- Pensions Act
- The Carers’ Strategy
- Other legislation
Market Size and Trends
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- Key points
- Market size
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- Figure 11: The UK residential care market, by value, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 12: The UK residential care market graph, by value, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 13: The UK residential care market, by number of registered care homes, 2011-15 (Units)
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- Figure 14: The UK residential care market graph, by number of registered care homes, 2011-15 (Units)
- Figure 15: The UK residential care market, by number of registered places, 2011-15 (000)
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- Figure 16: Average number of places, revenue per care home and revenue per place, UK, 2011-15 (Average number of places, revenue in £000)
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- Figure 17: Revenue per care home and per place, UK, 2011-15 (Revenue per place in £ and per care home in £000)
- Market segmentation
- Overview
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- Figure 18: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of accommodation, 2011-15 (Number of homes, sheltered housing in 000 units)
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- Figure 19: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 20: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2011 and 2015 (£ million)
- Figure 21: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of provider, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 22: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of provider graph, 2011-15 (£ million)
- Local authority commissioned care
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- Figure 23: Number of local authority funded adults in care homes, by type of provider, 2010-14 (Number of residents)
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- Figure 24: Number of local authority-funded adults in care homes, by independent provider, 2010-14 (Number of residents)
- Figure 25: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by provider and client type, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 26: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by provider and client type, 2011-15 (£ million)
- Older people (65+)
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- Figure 27: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for older people (65+), by service type, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 28: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for older people (65+) graph, by service type, 2011-15 (£ million)
- Adults aged 18-64
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- Figure 29: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for adults aged 18-64, by service type, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 30: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for adults aged 18-64, by care need type, 2011-15 (£ million)
- NHS care
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- Figure 31: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on residential and nursing care, by provider type, 2011-15 (£ million)
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- Figure 32: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on residential and nursing care graph, by provider type, 2011-15 (£ million)
- Private care purchasers
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- Figure 33: Private expenditure on residential and nursing care, 2011-15 (£ million and % market share)
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- Figure 34: Private expenditure on residential and nursing care graph, 2011-15 (£ million)
- Sheltered housing
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- Figure 35: The development of sheltered housing in the UK, 2011-15 (000 units and % change)
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- Figure 36: The development of sheltered housing in the UK graph, 2011-15 (000 units)
- Figure 37: Segmentation of sheltered housing in the UK, by sector and region, 2015 (000 units)
- Extra care housing
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- Figure 38: Segmentation of extra care housing in england, by purchasing type and region, 2015 (Units)
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- Figure 39: Segmentation of extra care housing in England graph, by purchasing type and region, 2015 (Units)
- Market trends
- Care home fees continue to be squeezed
- Ageing population continues to offer growth potential
- Occupancy rates in residential care homes rise above nursing homes
- Demand for specialist care homes increases due to rise in illnesses that require greater and specific care requirements
- Staff cost differentials apparent despite restrictive financial situation in the industry
- Regional analysis
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- Figure 40: Local authority-supported adults in residential and nursing care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14 (Number of people)
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- Figure 41: Local authority-supported adults in residential and nursing care graph, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14 (Number of people)
- Figure 42: Local authority-supported adults in independent sector residential care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14 (Number of people)
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- Figure 43: Local authority-supported adults in independent sector residential care graph, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14 (Number of people)
- Figure 44: Local authority-supported adults in LA-staffed residential care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14 (Number of people)
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- Figure 45: Local authority-supported adults in LA-staffed residential care graph, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14 (Number of people)
- Figure 46: Local authority-supported adults in nursing care, by region, 2009/10-2013/14 (Number of people)
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- Figure 47: Local authority-supported adults in nursing care graph, by region, 2009/10 and 2013/14 (Number of people)
Supplier Opportunities
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- Key points
- Opportunities
- Care home property market
- Purpose-built care homes
- Supply of goods
- Efficiency
- Demography and health trends
- Self-funder market
- Contract/purchasing negotiation
Industry Structure
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- Key points
- Industry development
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- Figure 48: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2010-14 (Number of outlets and businesses)
- Figure 49: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2010-14 (Number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 50: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the hospital activities – Medical nursing home activities industry, 2010-14 (Number of outlets and businesses)
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 51: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2013-14 (Number of outlets and outlet employment size)
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- Figure 52: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2013-14 (Number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Figure 53: Analysis of the employment structure of the hospital activities – Medical nursing home activities industry, 2013-14 (Number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 54: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2013-14 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 55: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2013-14 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
- Figure 56: Analysis of the financial structure of the hospital activities – Medical nursing home activities industry, 2013-14 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
Company Profiles
Abbeyfield Society
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- Figure 57: Financial analysis of Abbeyfield Society, 2010-14 (£000)
- Company outlook
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Anchor Trust
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- Figure 58: Financial analysis of Anchor Trust, 2010-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Avante Care and Support (formerly Avante Partnership)
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- Figure 59: Financial analysis of Avante Care & Support, 2010-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Barchester Healthcare
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- Figure 60: Financial analysis of Barchester Healthcare, 2010-14 (£ 000)
- Company outlook
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Bupa
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- Figure 61: Financial analysis of Bupa, 2010-14 (£ million)
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- Figure 62: Divisional analysis of Bupa, 2011-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Bupa Care Homes (ANS)
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- Figure 63: Financial analysis of Bupa Care Homes (ANS), 2010-14 (£ million)
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Bupa Care Homes (CFG)
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- Figure 64: Financial analysis of Bupa Care Homes (CFG), 2009-13 (£ million)
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Care UK
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- Figure 65: Financial analysis of Care UK, 2010-14 (£ million)
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- Figure 66: Revenue breakdown of Care UK, by division, 2013-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Embrace
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- Figure 67: Financial analysis of Embrace, 2014 (£ 000)
- Company outlook
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Four Seasons Health Care
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of Four Seasons Health Care, 2010-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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HC-One
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of HC-One, 2012-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Housing & Care 21
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- Figure 70: Financial analysis of Housing & Care 21 (formerly Housing 21), 2010-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Methodist Homes
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- Figure 71: Financial analysis of Methodist Homes, 2010-14 (£ million)
- Company outlook
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Minster Care Group
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- Figure 72: Financial analysis of Minster Care Group, 2010-14 (£ 000)
- Company Outlook
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Priory Group
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- Figure 73: Financial analysis of the Priory Group, 2010-14 (£ million)
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- Figure 74: Financial analysis of the Priory Education Services, 2010-14 (£ 000)
- Group outlook
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Sanctuary Care
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- Figure 75: Financial analysis of Sanctuary Care, 2011-15 (£ 000)
- Company outlook
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- Figure 76: Profiled companies’ turnover, 2010-14 (£ million)
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Forecast
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- Key points
- The market
- Demographic trends
- Challenges posed by domiciliary care market
- Care home fees
- Care home property market
- Self-funders
- Care providers
- Government and regulatory action
- Market forecast
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- Figure 77: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market, by type of purchaser, 2016-20 (£ million)
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- Figure 78: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market graph, by type of purchaser, 2016-20 (£ million)
- Figure 79: Forecast UK residential and nursing care, by number of registered places, 2016-20 (000 places)
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- Figure 80: Forecast UK residential and nursing care, by number of places graph, 2016-20 (000 places)
- Figure 81: Forecast UK residential and nursing care, by number of homes, 2016-20 (Number of homes)
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- Figure 82: Forecast UK residential and nursing care graph, by number of homes, 2016-20 (Number of homes)
- Sheltered housing
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- Figure 83: Forecast UK sheltered housing units, 2016-20 (000)
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- Figure 84: Forecast UK sheltered housing units graph, 2016-20 (000)
- Household support
- Difficulties in expanding care home workforce
- Technology
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations and organisations
- Age UK
- Carers UK
- Care England (formerly English Community Care Association)
- National Care Association
- National Care Forum
- Trade magazines
- Care Management Matters
- Care Talk
- Caring Times
- Caring UK
- Community Care
- Trade exhibitions
- Care England 2015
- Care and Dementia Show 2015
- Health + Care 2016
- NAIDEX 2016
- Nursing in Practice 2015
- Primary Care and Public Health 2016
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