Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
- Sugar debates affects the market
- A desire for variety is changing the breakfast occasion
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Kellogg’s dominates RTE cereals
- Quaker sees value growth in hot cereals
- Brands look to distinguish themselves through their image
- Cereals look to strengthen high-protein proposition
- The consumer
- More than eight in 10 adults eat cereals
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- Figure 2: Usage of breakfast cereals, June 2015
- Porridge that helps gut health/digestion top of product enticements
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- Figure 3: Interest in select breakfast cereal concepts, June 2015
- Fortification offers consumers a way to get nutrients into their diet
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- Figure 4: Attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, June 2015
- High sugar content of flavoured cereal is a likely barrier to entry
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- Figure 5: Perceptions of select breakfast foods, June 2015
Issues and Insights
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- Catering to the more adventurous breakfast eater should help to stem the decline in sales
- The facts
- The implications
- Interest in fortification and tummy health provides an incentive to NPD and communication around these issues
- The facts
- The implications
- A greater adoption of alternatives such as stevia could alleviate concerns on sugar
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales slip in the cereals market
- Cereals are expected to see value growth over 2015-20, though a drop in volumes
- Sugar attracts negative attention
- Increased incomes should help to support sales
- A desire for variety is changing the breakfast occasion
Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance
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- Sales slip in the cereals market
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- Figure 6: UK retail value and volume sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
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- Figure 7: UK retail value sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
- RTE cereals to see drop in value and volume sales in 2015
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- Figure 8: UK retail value and volume sales of the RTE breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of the RTE breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
- Value and volume sales stall for hot cereals
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- Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of the hot breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the hot breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
Market Drivers
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- Sugar debate continues to impact the market
- A desire for variety is changing the breakfast occasion
- Out of home poses a challenge
- Increased incomes should help to support sales
- The rise in children should provide a boost
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Kellogg’s loses sales and reduces adspend
- Quaker bucks downward trend to see growth
- Cereals look to strengthen high-protein proposition
- Brands look to distinguish themselves through their image
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2015
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 13: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2015
- Brand attitudes: Dorset Cereals promotes a more premium brand image
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- Figure 14: Attitudes, by brand, June 2015
- Brand personality: Shredded Wheat’s healthy angle limits upbeat connotations
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- Figure 15: Brand personality – Macro image, June 2015
- Frosties may find usage limited by association with being unhealthy
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- Figure 16: Brand personality – Micro image, June 2015
- Brand analysis
- Quaker Oat So Simple cements strong brand image with high recommendation
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- Figure 17: User profile of Quaker Oat so Simple, June 2015
- Dorset Cereals encourages different perceptions to all other brands
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- Figure 18: User profile of Dorset Cereals, June 2015
- Crunchy Nut leads on perceptions of taste
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- Figure 19: User profile of Crunchy Nut, June 2015
- Special K maintains strong brand image among women
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- Figure 20: User profile of Special K, June 2015
- Alpen could face increasing challenge from Dorset Cereals
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- Figure 21: User profile of Alpen, June 2015
- Shredded Wheat has a more favourable image among older consumers
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- Figure 22: User profile of Shredded Wheat, June 2015
- Cheerios’ family image may limit breadth of appeal
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- Figure 23: User profile of Cheerios, June 2015
- Frosties scores highly on taste, but perceptions of unhealthiness may affect recommendation
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- Figure 24: User profile of Frosties, June 2015
Market Share
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- Kellogg’s continues to dominate RTE cereals, despite falling sales
- Weetabix and Nestlé outperform Kellogg’s
- Dorset Cereals and Mornnflake buck the category trend to see value growth
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- Figure 25: UK retail sales of leading brands in the RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
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- Figure 26: UK retail sales of leading brands in the RTE breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 27: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the RTE breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Quaker dominates hot cereals through its Oats So Simple brand
- Weetabix sees a steep decline in value and volume sales
- Kellogg’s looks to cereal-branded porridge to boost sales
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- Figure 28: UK retail sales of leading brands in the hot breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 29: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the hot breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- RTE cereals manufacturers have stepped up NPD following a recent slide
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- Figure 30: Share of new product development in the UK cereals market, by sub-category, 2012-15*
- Low/no/reduced sugar claims remain niche
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- Figure 31: Share of new product development in the UK cereals market, by the low/no/reduced sugar claim, 2012-15*
- Cereal brands look to tap into the gluten-free trend
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- Figure 32: Share of new product development in the UK cereals market, by the gluten-free claim, 2012-15*
- Calling out protein content to appeal to health-conscious consumers
- Brands extend their brands into new areas
- Brands launch dry bircher muesli products
- One cup formats should appeal to the time-pressed
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Adspend falls as Kellogg’s continues to cut back
- Nestlé increases investment in Shredded Wheat in 2015
- Quaker invests in TV support
- Weetabix focuses on nutrition
- Dorset Cereals promotes energy message
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- Figure 33: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2014), 2011-15*
- Inability to advertise to children affects market
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- Figure 34: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by media type (sorted by 2014), 2011-15*
- Brands look to experiential campaigns
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Usage stands at more than 80%
- Opportunity to market tummy health for porridge
- Sugar attracts negative attention
- Fortification appeals to consumers looking for a fast track to nutrition
- Customisation provides scope for NPD
- A desire for variety poses a challenge to the market
Breakfast Cereals Usage
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- More than eight in ten adults eat cereals
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- Figure 35: Usage of breakfast cereals, June 2015
- Parents over-index across all types
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- Figure 36: Usage of breakfast cereals, by parent of under-16s, June 2015
- Sizeable minority eat cereals every day
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- Figure 37: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2015
- Almost half eat breakfast biscuits
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- Figure 38: Frequency of eating breakfast biscuits, June 2015
Breakfast Cereal Enticements
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- Porridge that helps gut health/digestion is top of product enticements
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- Figure 39: Interest in select breakfast cereal concepts, June 2015
- Single serve packaging appeals to a sizeable minority
- Online poses an opportunity
- Interest in different grains
Behaviour towards Breakfast Cereals
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- Switching between breakfast foods threatens the cereals market
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- Figure 40: Statements on breakfast cereals, June 2015
- Customisation is still important
- Switching to breakfast biscuits poses a concern
Attitudes towards Cold Breakfast Cereals
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- Fortification offers consumers a way to get nutrients into their diet
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, June 2015
- Openness to cereals as a meal beyond breakfast
- Almost one in four does not consider health
Perceptions of Breakfast Foods
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- High sugar content of flavoured cereal is a likely barrier to entry
- Flavoured cereals are seen to be unhealthy by almost two thirds
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- Figure 42: Perceptions of select breakfast foods, June 2015
- Fibre and protein content should be positives for breakfast cereals
- Cereals/porridge lose out to eggs on protein claims
- Around half of adults describe cereal and porridge as tasty
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance
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- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK breakfast cereals market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 45: UK retail volume sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2015-20
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- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the RTE breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 48: UK retail volume sales of the RTE breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the hot breakfast cereals market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the hot breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2015-20
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- Figure 51: UK retail volume sales of the hot breakfast cereals market, 2010-20
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