Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Cookie sales rise as consumers look to healthier and premium options
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Public problems for private label
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2015, % change versus 2013 sales in parentheses
- Parents factor health into premium purchases
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- Figure 3: Cookie purchase for household, by presence of children in household, June 2015
- The opportunities
- Millennials most likely to consume all forms of cookies
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- Figure 4: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
- Packaged cookies resonate with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 5: Median household income for households headed by Hispanics, by age of householder, 2013
- Young dads a particular target for healthy cookies
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- Figure 6: Consumption of cookies, by generation, by parents, June 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Cookie sales to surpass $9 billion
- Healthy growth for healthy cookies
- Private label declines
Market Size and Forecast
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- Healthy cookie sales to rise, standard cookies remain the category leader
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Standard cookies dominate, premium performance depends on economy
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Healthy sales remain...healthy
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Premium benefiting from slowly improving economy
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Sales of private label cookies in decline
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2015, % change versus 2013 sales in parentheses
Market Perspective
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- Consumer snacking behavior trends healthier
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- Figure 14: Consumer opinions of snacking and sweets, winter 2011-15
- Snack bars could encroach upon healthy cookies
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- Figure 15: Most often eaten, by age, November 2014
Market Factors
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- Obesity concerns may lead to healthier choices
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- Figure 16: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are obese, by gender and age, and obesity grade, 2009-12
- Kids and cookies
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- Figure 17: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Hispanic Millennials over index on packaged cookies
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- Figure 18: Median household income for households headed by Hispanics, by age of householder, 2013
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Mondelēz dominates the cookie category
- Cookies could improve health profiles
- Potential for organic cookies
Manufacturer Sales of Cookies
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- Mondelēz sales improve, as Kellogg’s slip
- Manufacturer sales of cookies
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Oreos lead standard cookies, the category’s largest segment
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Standard brands go premium
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of Pepperidge Farm Milano cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
- Figure 22: Mondelēz International, “Oreo Thins Commercial,” TV Ad, August 2015
- Health adds to indulgent cookies
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of Udi’s Gluten-free cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
- Figure 24: Cookie launches, by claim, 2012-15
What’s Struggling?
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- Premium growth impacts standard cookie sales
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of Keebler cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
- Figure 26: New cookie introductions, branded versus private label, 2010-15
What’s Next?
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- Organic options could grow the stagnant private label segment
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- Figure 27: Walmart’s Wild Oats Organic Cookies
- Citing health, consumers avoiding artificial
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- Figure 28: Annie’s Homegrown Bernie’s Farm Animal Cookies
- Figure 29: MULO sales of Mondelēz International’s Belvita, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
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- Figure 30: Kellogg's Nutri-Grain Apple Cinnamon Breakfast Biscuits
- Figure 31: Lance Quick Starts Cinnamon Roll Breakfast Biscuit Sandwiches
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Healthy cookies resonate with parents
- Millennials regard cookies as affordable indulgences
- Artificial-free ingredients resonate with Hispanic Millennial cookie consumers
Cookie Purchase
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- Households with children lead cookie purchasers
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- Figure 32: Purchase of cookies, June 2015
Purchase for Children
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- Parents factor health into premium purchases
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- Figure 33: Cookie purchase for household, by presence of children in household, June 2015
Millennials Spending on Cookies
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- Standard cookies garner most Millennial dollars
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- Figure 34: Cookie purchase for household, by generation, June 2015
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- Figure 35: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
Healthy Cookies and Millennials
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- Healthier cookies resonate with Millennial parents, especially dads
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- Figure 36: Cookies purchased for household, by gender, June 2015
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- Figure 37: Consumption of cookies, by generation, by parents, June 2015
Healthy Demands of Packaged Cookies
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- Millennials particularly interested in healthy cookies
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- Figure 38: Health attributes of importance when purchasing, by generation, June 2015
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- Figure 39: Demands for cookies, by generation, June 2015
Interest in Organic Cookies
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- Organic claims resonate with Millennials
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- Figure 40: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
Household Income and Consumption
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- Premium brands resonate more with higher-income households
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- Figure 41: Cookie consumption – More than twice a week, by type, by household income, June 2015
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- Figure 42: Cookie packages eaten, winter 2015
Hispanic Millennials Likely to Choose Packaged Cookies
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- Healthy, premium cookies resonate with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 43: Cookie consumption, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), June 2015
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- Figure 44: Demands for cookies, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), June 2015
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 45: Cookie clusters, June 2015
- Group one: Healthy cookie consumers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 46: Health attributes, by target group, June 2015
- Group two: Cookie indulgers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 47: Opinions, any agree, by target group, June 2015
- Group three: Brand buyers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 48: Opinions, any agree, by target group, June 2015
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
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- Figure 60: US supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 61: US drugstore sales of cookies, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 62: US sales of cookies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 63: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 64: MULO sales of healthy cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 65: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
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- Figure 66: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
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- Figure 67: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
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