Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of bakery products, 2010-20
- Figure 2: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of bakery products, 2010-20
- Market factors
- Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
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- Figure 3: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
- Figure 4: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
- Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
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- Figure 5: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
- The consumer
- Nearly all Canadians eat baked goods
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- Figure 6: Bakery products eaten, March 2015
- Consumers are most likely to eat bread as part of a sandwich
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- Figure 7: When bakery products are eaten, March 2015
- Freshness is most important to consumers
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- Figure 8: Purchase behaviour, March 2015
- Bread is most important for making a good sandwich
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- Figure 9: Baked goods purchase attitudes, March 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Freshness matters most to consumers
- The facts
- The implications
- Gluten-free is less important to consumers versus other factors
- The facts
- The implications
- Quebec consumers have more positive associations with bakery products
- The facts
- The implications
- Gender has an impact on bakery product consumption
- The facts
- The implications
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Demographic overview
- Canadian population expected to grow
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- Figure 10: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2014
- Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
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- Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
- Figure 12: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
- Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
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- Figure 13: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
- Economic overview
- Overall negative impact of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy
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- Figure 14: Canada’s GDP, by quarter, Q4 2008-Q4 2014
- Figure 15: Household disposable incomes and savings in Canada, by quarter, Q4 2008-Q4 2014
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- Figure 16: Canada’s unemployment rate, by gender, 2008-15
Trend Application
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- Trend: The Real Thing
- Trend: Minimize Me
- Trend: Sense of the Intense
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Overall launch increase supported by new packaging
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- Figure 17: Percentage of bakery launches in Canada, by launch type, 2010-14
- Private label outpaces branded products in launches
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- Figure 18: Percentage of bakery product launches in Canada, by brand type, 2010-14
- Wholegrain is the top claim found on bread packaging
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- Figure 19: Percentage of bread & bread product launches in Canada, by claim, 2010-14
- Honey, I shrunk the bread!
- Versatile options tie bread closer to the centre of the plate
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Bakery products volume declines to moderate
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- Figure 20: Canada retail value and volume sales of bakery products, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 21: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of bakery products, 2010-20
- Figure 22: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of bakery products, 2010-20
- Bread and bread product volume declines to flatten, but value sales forecasted to soften
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- Figure 23: Canada retail value and volume sales of bread and bread products, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 24: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of bread and bread products, 2010-20
- Figure 25: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of bread and bread products, 2010-20
- Sweet bakery volume remains flat, though value sales show increase
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- Figure 26: Canada retail value and volume sales of sweet bakery, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 27: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of sweet bakery, 2010-20
- Figure 28: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of sweet bakery, 2010-20
- Forecast methodology
Companies and Products
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- Grupo Bimbo (Canada Bread Co.)
- Overview and product range
- Recent activity and innovation
- Weston Foods
- Overview and product range
- Recent activity and innovation
- Aryzta
- Overview and product range
- Recent activity and innovation
The Consumer – Bakery Products Eaten
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- Key points
- Nearly all Canadians eat baked goods
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- Figure 29: Bakery products eaten, March 2015
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- Figure 30: Consumption frequency of bakery products, March 2015
- Men are more likely to eat bakery products daily
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- Figure 31: Bakery products eaten in the past three months, by gender, March 2015
- Consumers in Quebec are more likely to eat multiple types of bakery products
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- Figure 32: Bakery products eaten in the past three months in Quebec and Canada, March 2015
- Household size and income impacts frequency of bread consumption
The Consumer – When Bakery Products are Eaten
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- Key points
- Consumers are most likely to eat bread as part of a sandwich
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- Figure 33: When bakery products are eaten, March 2015
- Age influences when bread is eaten
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- Figure 34: When bakery products are eaten, by age group, March 2015
- Household dynamics influence when bakery products are eaten
- Underdeveloped opportunities for bakery products
The Consumer – Purchase Behaviour
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- Key points
- Freshness is most important to consumers
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- Figure 35: Purchase behaviour, March 2015
- Women are more likely to be open to new and different ingredients
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- Figure 36: Purchase behaviour, by gender, March 2015
- Regional differences are select and subtle, but they exist
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- Figure 37: Purchase behaviour – Quebec versus Canada overall, March 2015
- Accommodation is more important within larger households
The Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Freshness and taste are the top purchase considerations
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- Figure 38: Importance of different factors when choosing bakery products (any rank), March 2015
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- Figure 39: Leading motivating factors when choosing bakery products (#1 ranked), March 2015
- Gluten-free has little impact in consumers’ decisions
- Half of consumers look for wholegrain/high-in-fibre health claims
- Half of consumers are influenced by baked products’ end use
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Baking Products
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- Key points
- Bread is most important for making a good sandwich
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- Figure 40: Baked goods purchase attitudes, March 2015
- Consumers have an appetite for innovation
- Fortification can help alleviate consumers’ health concerns around bread
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- Figure 41: Baked goods purchase attitudes – Health considerations, by gender and age, March 2015
- Consumers are both willing to pay more and are looking to spend less
The Consumer – Bakery Products and Chinese Canadians
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- Key points
- More Chinese Canadians eat sliced bread, but they do so less often
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- Figure 42: Bakery products eaten – Chinese Canadians vs overall population, March 2015
- Chinese Canadians are less likely to eat bakery products during ‘traditional’ meal occasions
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- Figure 43: When bakery products are eaten – Chinese Canadians vs overall population, March 2015
- Health considerations more important among Chinese Canadians
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- Figure 44: Importance of different factors when choosing bakery products (any rank) – Chinese Canadians versus overall population, March 2015
- Chinese Canadians are more sales conscious
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- Figure 45: Baked goods purchase attitudes – Chinese Canadians versus overall population, March 2015
The Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 46: Target groups for bakery products, March 2015
- Price Conscious (28%)
- Enthusiasts (28%)
- Functionally Motivated (22%)
- Disengaged (22%)
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