Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
- Market factors
- Sugar concerns put pressure on CSDs
- Falling alcohol consumption should have created opportunities for CSDs
- Rising real incomes should support the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Diet brands buck the downward trend in CSDs
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2014/15*
- Coke retains innovation lead, new brands enter sparkling juice segment
- Total adspend falls by £7.5 million in 2014
- The consumer
- CSD usage stands at almost 80%
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- Figure 3: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2015
- Diet/light CSDs are drunk more frequently than standard ones
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- Figure 4: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by frequency, March 2015
- More than a quarter of non-diet CSD drinkers have cut back
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- Figure 5: Changes in usage of CSDs compared to a year ago, March 2015
- Minority interest in more sparkling fruit juices
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- Figure 6: Attitudes/behaviours related to buying CSDs, March 2015
- A third of users limit their non-diet CSDs due to sugar concerns
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- Figure 7: Health attitudes related to CSDs, March 2015
- ‘Less sugar’ is key all round
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- Figure 8: Further attitudes towards CSDs, March 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- A strong interest in lower-sugar CSDs without sweeteners
- The facts
- The implications
- NPD offers growth opportunities in own-label CSDs
- The facts
- The implications
- Whilst a low sugar content is important, so is the type of sweetener used
- The facts
- The implications
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Obesity crisis puts pressure on CSD operators…
- …with sugar a focus in 2014…
- …negatively impacting usage of CSDs
- Operators should emphasise natural ingredients, including plant-derived sweeteners
- CSDs have been well placed to capitalise on cutbacks on alcohol
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- Figure 9: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-14
- A rise in real disposable income should help to increase usage of CSDs
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- Figure 10: Financial wellbeing index, April 2009-April 2015
- Innovation will be key in capitalising on demographic changes
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- Figure 11: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-14 and 2014-19
- Rise in older cohorts poses a challenge for the CSD market
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola leads NPD for the fifth year
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- Figure 12: New product launches within the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by ultimate company (top 10), 2010-14
- Figure 13: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, branded vs own-label, 2010-14
- Coca-Cola Life should appeal to the third of adults who limit CSD intake due to sugar concerns
- Own-label makes a strong start in 2015
- More than a third of new products carry a low/no/reduced calorie claim
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- Figure 14: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by top 10 claims, 2010-14
- The increase in all-natural claims should be well received
- Zeo cuts calories and focuses on natural ingredients in range revamp
- Canned CSDs increase their share in the NPD landscape
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- Figure 15: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by packaging type, 2010-14
- Citrus and Tropical fruits were popular flavour choices in 2014
- Healthy canned drinks look to superfoods for flavour inspiration
- The rise in sparkling fruit juice NPD seems well timed
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Carbonated soft drink volumes look set to continue to fluctuate
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- Figure 16: UK total value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks 2010-20
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- Figure 17: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
- Figure 18: Forecast of total UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
- Retail sales are expected to see steady but modest growth
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
- On-premise sales
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- Figure 20: UK on-premise value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Diet/light drinks kept cola carbonates afloat
- Mixers hold their own in a flat market
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- Figure 21: Off-trade value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks, by type, 2013 and 2014
Market Share
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola retains top position, Coke brands take 39% of market by value
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2014/15*
- Regular Coca-Cola loses share
- Regular Pepsi loses out to Pepsi Max
- Fanta doesn’t escape the sugar scare
- Schweppes’ sales take a hit as CCE reduces adspend
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- Figure 23: Leading brands in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 24: Leading brands in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
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- Figure 25: Leading manufacturers in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 26: Leading manufacturers in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Companies and Products
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- AG Barr
- Background
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
- Advertising and promotion
- Britvic Plc
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Advertising and promotion
- Coca-Cola
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Fentimans
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- PepsiCo
- Background
- Product range and product innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- SHS Group
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Total adspend falls by £7.5 million in 2014
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- Figure 27: Main monitored advertising spend on carbonated soft drinks, 2011-14
- Figure 28: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 advertisers*, 2011-14
- After a year off, D&G Drinks brings Old Jamaica Ginger Beer back to our screens
- Adspend on regular Coca-Cola halves as the focus moves to Diet Coke and Coca-Cola Life
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- Figure 29: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on carbonated soft drinks, by top 10 brands*, 2011-14
- Figure 30: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by media type, 2011-14
- Coca-Cola invests £3.6 million in supporting the launch of new brand Coca-Cola Life
- Total TV adspend fell by 31% in 2014
- PepsiCo drives outdoor adspend
Brand Research – Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, April 2015
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 32: Key metrics for selected brands, April 2015
- Brand attitudes: Coca-Cola Life provides something different from other brands
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- Figure 33: Attitudes, by brand, April 2015
- Brand personality: Fentimans’ price and product range promotes greater exclusivity
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- Figure 34: Brand personality – macro image, April 2015
- Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Fanta most associated with taste
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- Figure 35: Brand personality – micro image, April 2015
- Brand analysis
- Fentimans’ sophisticated image promotes a particularly different proposition
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- Figure 36: User profile of Fentimans, April 2015
- Coca-Cola is likely to maintain its strong position as most drunk brand
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- Figure 37: User profile of Coca-Cola, April 2015
- Fanta flavours appear particularly appealing to younger consumers
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- Figure 38: User profile of Fanta, April 2015
- Coca-Cola Zero has yet to fully develop trust from consumers
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- Figure 39: User profile of Coca-Cola Zero, April 2015
- Coca-Cola Life has a more ethical image than other Coca-Cola brands
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- Figure 40: User profile of Coca-Cola Life, April 2015
- Pepsi Max has similarity to Coca-Cola Zero but struggles to match its performance
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- Figure 41: User profile of Pepsi Max, April 2015
- Pepsi struggles to match strength of perception of Coca-Cola
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- Figure 42: User profile of Pepsi, April 2015
- Irn-Bru driven forward by Scotland
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- Figure 43: User profile of Irn-Bru, April 2015
The Consumer – Usage of CSDs
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- Key points
- CSD usage reaches almost 80%
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- Figure 44: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2015
- Diet/light CSDs are drunk more frequently than standard ones
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- Figure 45: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by frequency, March 2015
- More than a quarter of non-diet CSD drinkers have cut back
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- Figure 46: Changes in usage of CSDs compared to a year ago, March 2015
- CSD consumption is most prevalent at home
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- Figure 47: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2015
- Cola holds strong as the most popular CSD flavour
The Consumer – Attitudes towards CSDs
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- Key points
- Own-label CSDs enjoy high usage but modest sales
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- Figure 48: Attitudes/behaviours related to buying CSDs, March 2015
- Opportunity to increase purchases of own-label CSDs with NPD
- Boosting the offering of sparkling fruit juice would appeal
- A third of users limit their intake of non-diet CSDs due to sugar concerns
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- Figure 49: Health attitudes related to CSDs, March 2015
- One in four use light CSDs as healthy alternative when craving something sweet
The Consumer – Further Attitudes towards CSDs
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- Key points
- ‘Less sugar’ is key all round
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- Figure 50: Further attitudes towards CSDs, March 2015
- The type of sweetener is important to consumers
- A strong preference for low sugar without sweeteners
- Cutting sugar is an option as many see CSDs as too sweet
- The power of branding prevails
Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 51: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, branded vs own-label, 2011-15
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 52: Best and worst case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 53: Best and worst case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 54: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2010-20
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- Figure 56: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 57: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2010-20
- Figure 58: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 59: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value 2010-20
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- Figure 60: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 61: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2010-20
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