Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Methodology
- Definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- British consumers remain broadly cautious
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- Figure 1: Changes in spending habits in 2014, January 2015
- The new markers of Britishness
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- Figure 2: Factors that make a company or product British, January 2015
- British origin matters to the older generations the most
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- Figure 3: Preference for British brands and products, January 2015
- On balance, globalisation has been beneficial for consumers…
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- Figure 4: Perceived benefits of globalisation, January 2015
- … but there are also losers from open markets
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- Figure 5: Views on overall benefits of globalisation, January 2015
- What we think
Britain Today – The Economy
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- Key points
- What we think
- UK shows the fastest growth out of all major economies in 2014
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- Figure 6: Quarterly % change in UK GDP, Q1 2009 - Q4 2014
- Unemployment falls further
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- Figure 7: Trends in the proportion of the unemployed, UK, November 2007 - January 2008 to September - November 2014
- Sharp fall in inflation provides some relief for households
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- Figure 8: Average weekly earnings (including bonuses) – Percentage growth year on year (3 month average) and percentage change in Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over 12 months, Q1 2009 - Q4 2014
- Consumer confidence stalls
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- Figure 9: Financial well-being index, February 2009 - January 2015
- Financial expectations are more positive
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- Figure 10: Financial confidence index, January 2009 - January 2015
Britain Today – The People
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- Key points
- Population and age structure trends
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- Figure 11: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-19
- Trends in long-term immigration to the UK
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- Figure 12: Long-term international migration estimates, by main reason of migration, UK, year ending September 2010 – year ending September 2014
- Fertility rate
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- Figure 13: Total fertility rate and number of live births in England and Wales, 2008-13
- Mortality rate
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- Figure 14: Percentage distribution of all deaths, by gender and age group, UK, 1983, 1993, 2003 and 2013
- Families and children
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- Figure 15: UK family types, 2014
- National well-being
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- Figure 16: Measures of personal well-being, UK, April 2011 - March 2012 and April 2012 - March 2013
- Satisfaction with health and amount of leisure
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- Figure 17: Proportions who were somewhat, mostly or completely satisfied with their general health and amount of leisure, UK, 2006 to 2011/12
Expenditure Overview
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- Key points
- Overview of consumer expenditure
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- Figure 18: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£ billions), 2014
- Outlook for the next five years
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- Figure 19: Best- and worst-case forecast total value sales, 2009-19
- Winners in the next five years
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- Figure 20: Fastest-growing market sectors, at current prices, by % growth, 2014 (est) -19 (fore)
- Slower growth sectors in the next five years
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- Figure 21: Consumer sectors with weaker growth, at current prices, by % growth, 2014 (est) -19 (fore)
In-home Food
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- Key points
- What we think
- A sharp slowdown in growth of in-home food sales
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- Figure 22: UK in-home food market value, 2009-14
- A return to steady growth over 2015-19
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- Figure 23: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the in-home food market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Fresh sandwiches
- Poultry
- Game meat
- Baby milk and flavoured milk
- Losers for 2015
- Sugar and sweet treats
- Soup
- Baby food
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 24: Changes in spending habits on in-home food in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Poultry and game
- Milk
- Sugar
- Baby food
Foodservice
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- Key points
- What we think
- The eating out industry shows modest growth
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- Figure 25: UK foodservice market value, 2009-14
- The market is forecast to grow but operators still need to proactively chase sales
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- Figure 26: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the foodservice market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Burger bars and restaurants
- Pub catering
- Single/dual food venues
- Losers for 2015
- Ethnic cuisine
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 27: Changes in spending habits on eating out and takeaways in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Burger bars and restaurants
- Pub catering
- Ethnic cuisine
Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- Key points
- What we think
- Large part of market faces challenges over high sugar content of drinks
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- Figure 28: UK non-alcoholic drinks market value, 2009-14
- Steady growth expected over 2015-19
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- Figure 29: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the non-alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Bottled water
- Losers for 2015
- Cordials and squash
- Hot beverages
- Coffee
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 30: Changes in spending habits on non-alcoholic drinks in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Bottled water
- Carbonated soft drinks
- Tea and other hot drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
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- Key points
- What we think
- The alcoholic drinks industry remains in value growth
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- Figure 31: UK alcoholic drinks market value, 2009-14
- Value growth expected to continue in the alcoholic drinks market
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- Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Beer
- Cider
- Prosecco
- Losers for 2015
- Still wine
- Champagne
- Ready-to-drink
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 33: Changes in spending habits on alcoholic drinks in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Beer
- Cider
- Wines
- Spirits
Beauty and Personal Care
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- Key points
- What we think
- Pace of growth stalls in the BPC industry
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- Figure 34: UK beauty and personal care market value, 2009-14
- Growth anticipated to return after a slow 2015
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- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Colour cosmetics
- Haircare
- Losers for 2015
- Facial skincare
- Shaving and hair removal
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 36: Changes in spending habits on beauty and personal care in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Colour cosmetics
- Haircare
- Facial skincare
- Shaving and hair removal
OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- Key points
- What we think
- OTC industry remains stagnant
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- Figure 37: UK OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2009-14 (est.)
- Slow and steady growth
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- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Sexual health
- Vitamins and supplements
- Feminine hygiene
- Losers for 2015
- Smoking cessation
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 39: Changes in spending habits on OTC and pharmaceuticals in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Vitamins and supplements
- Smoking cessation
- Cough, cold and flu remedies
Clothing and Accessories
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- Key points
- What we think
- Fashion grows strongly
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- Figure 40: UK clothing and accessories market value, 2009-14
- Clothing is resilient
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- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the clothing and accessories market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Footwear
- Handbags
- Watches
- Losers for 2015
- Childrenswear
- Youth fashion
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 42: Changes in spending habits on clothing and accessories in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Footwear
- Handbags
- Childrenswear
- Youth fashion
Household Care
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- Key points
- What we think
- Static sales a sign of increased competition for spending
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- Figure 43: UK household care market value, 2009-14
- A return to slow and steady growth
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- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Specialist cleaners
- Air care
- Home laundry
- Losers for 2015
- Toilet tissue
- Laundry detergents
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 45: Changes in spending habits on household care in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Specialist cleaners
- Air fresheners
- Fabric conditioners
- Toilet tissue
- Laundry detergents
Technology and Communications
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- Key points
- What we think
- Market back in growth in 2014
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- Figure 46: UK technology and communications market value, 2009-14
- Technology industry on path to recovery
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- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Streaming services
- Video and music subscriptions
- Pay-TV
- Laptops
- Losers for 2015
- Televisions
- Digital cameras, Sat Navs, portable games consoles
- Print newspapers
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 48: Changes in spending habits on technology and communications in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Desktop and laptop computers
- Mobile phones
- Video games and consoles
- Social and media networks
Leisure and Entertainment
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- Key points
- What we think
- Leisure and entertainment industry growth driven by inflation
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- Figure 49: UK leisure and entertainment market value, 2009-14
- Marginally stronger growth set for next five years
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- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the leisure and entertainment market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Music concerts and festivals
- Gambling
- Losers for 2015
- Nightclubs
- Cinemas
- Tenpin bowling
- Health and fitness clubs
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 51: Changes in spending habits on leisure and entertainment in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Music concerts and festivals
- Gambling
- Nightclubs
- Cinemas
Home and Garden
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- Key points
- What we think
- Home and garden industry on the rise
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- Figure 52: UK home and garden market value, 2009-14
- Continued growth in consumer spending
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- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the home and garden market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Furniture
- Garden products
- Homeware
- Losers for 2015
- Home textiles and decorative accessories
- Plants, seeds and bulbs
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 54: Changes in spending habits on home and garden in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Furniture
- Garden products
- Homeware
- Appliances
Transport
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- Key points
- What we think
- The market is showing steady growth
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- Figure 55: UK transport market value, 2009-14
- Strong growth predicted in the next five years
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- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transport market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- New and used cars
- Rail travel
- Losers for 2015
- Two wheelers
- Key consumer findings
- New and used cars
- Car and van hire
- Rail travel
Holidays
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- Key points
- What we think
- Steady holiday growth continues
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- Figure 57: UK holidays market value, 2009-14
- Overseas holidays to drive growth
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- Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the holidays market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Beach holidays
- Independent holidays
- Losers for 2015
- High street travel agents
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 59: Changes in spending habits on holidays in 2014, January 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Premium and budget travellers
- Short/city breaks
- Holiday planning and booking process
- Domestic tourism
Personal Finance
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- Key points
- What we think
- Expenditure on financial services bounced back in 2014
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- Figure 60: UK personal finance market value, 2009-14
- The recovery in financial services spending set to continue
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- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the personal finance market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Changing consumer habits
- The chance to start to increase motor premiums…
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- Figure 62: Attitudes towards car insurance, December 2014
- … and prospects for an increase in investment sales
- Key consumer findings
- Motor insurance
- Share dealing
- Collective investments
Housing
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- Key points
- What we think
- Consumer spending on housing increased sharply in 2014
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- Figure 63: UK housing market value, 2009-14
- Further growth forecast between 2014-19
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- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the housing market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Changing consumer habits
- Key consumer findings
- Buy-to-let mortgages
- Mortgages
Newsagents’ Goods
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- Key points
- What we think
- Newsagents’ goods market benefits from rising tobacco prices
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- Figure 65: UK newsagents’ goods market value, 2009-14
- Moderate growth forecasted
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- Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Key consumer findings
- Cigarettes and tobacco
- Cards and stationery
Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- Key points
- What we think
- Healthy growth in the miscellaneous markets continues
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- Figure 67: UK miscellaneous expenditure market value, 2009-14
- The market will grow at a faster pace
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- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the miscellaneous expenditure market, at current prices, 2009-19
- Winners for 2015
- Education
- Funerals
- Losers for 2015
- Disposable nappies and wipes
- Pet food, care and accessories
- Key consumer findings
- Education
- Funerals
- Pet food, care and accessories
The Consumer – Changes in Spending Habits in 2014
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- Key points
- Britons continue spending on essentials
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- Figure 69: Changes in spending habits in 2014, January 2015
- Health is on the agenda
- Spending on holidays and leisure still a luxury for the ‘Sandwich Generation’
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- Figure 70: Proportions of people who spent more and less on holidays and leisure & entertainment in 2014, by age, January 2015
- Millennial men take more interest in their appearance
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- Figure 71: Proportions of people who spent more and less on beauty products & toiletries and clothes & accessories in 2014, by gender and age, January 2015
- Brits are more likely to spend less rather than more
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- Figure 72: Percentage-point difference between those who spent more and those who spent less on each category in 2014, January 2015
- Millennials driving new fashion purchases
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- Figure 73: Consumer expenditure in various sectors, past and next three months, January 2015
- Trend application insight
The Consumer – Perceptions of What Makes a Company or Product British
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- Key points
- Brand Britain has enjoyed a renaissance
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- Figure 74: Examples of brand messages celebrating the birth of Prince George, January 2015
- Success of Brand Britain abroad
- ‘Made in Britain’ – The most recognisable mark of authentic Britishness…
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- Figure 75: Factors that make a company or product British, January 2015
- … and so is paying taxes
- Consumers have become more choosy
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- Figure 76: Number of factors people associate with British companies and/or products, January 2015
- Britishness goes beyond the Union Jack
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- Figure 77: Factors that make a company or product British, by selected factors that people think makes a company or product British, January 2015
- The over-55s are the most loyal to Brand Britain
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- Figure 78: Factors that make a company or product British, by age, January 2015
- Trend application insight
The Consumer – Preference for British Brands and Products
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- Key points
- British origin is most important in food
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- Figure 79: Preference for British brands and products, January 2015
- Men bolster demand for British fashion
- Majority of Brits don’t have any specific preferences
- A difficult balancing act for retailers
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- Figure 80: Preference for British brands and products, January 2015
- Figure 81: Preference for British brands and products, January 2015 (continued)
- Trend application insight
The Consumer – Qualities Associated with British Brands and Products
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- Key points
- British products are recognised for their unrivalled quality
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- Figure 82: Attributes associated with British brands and products (nets of attributes across all categories are shown), January 2015
- The future of British products
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- Figure 83: Attributes associated with British brands and products (nets of attributes across all categories are shown), by selected nets of attributes, January 2015
- Strengths and weaknesses of British brands
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- Figure 84: Attributes associated with British brands and products, January 2015
- Poor finances keep people focused on cost
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- Figure 85: Attributes associated with British brands and products (nets of attributes across all categories are shown), by current financial situation, January 2015
- Trend application insight
The Consumer – Benefits of Globalisation
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- Key points
- On balance, globalisation benefits British consumers…
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- Figure 86: Perceived benefits of globalisation, January 2015
- … but globalisation could be a double-edged sword
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- Figure 87: Obstacles to the success of UK’s small businesses, 2014
- Asserting British origins not a match for low prices
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- Figure 88: Georgia May Jagger launches British Airways’ GREAT aircraft, March 2015
- Modernising the high street
- The need to adapt to today’s consumer habits
- Few see personal benefit in other aspects of globalisation
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- Figure 89: Perceived benefits of globalisation, continued, January 2015
- The government entices overseas visitors to come to the UK
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- Figure 90: Examples of marketing material from ‘GREAT Britain’ campaign, March 2015
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- Figure 91: English Tourism Week promotional material, March 2015
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- Figure 92: Screenshot from VisitBritain’s GREAT names website, March 2015
- Brits of lower means say they have gained little from globalisation
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- Figure 93: Number of perceived personal benefits of globalisation, by changes in financial situation compared with a year ago, January 2015
- Generational divide in attitudes towards globalisation
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- Figure 94: Number of perceived personal benefits of globalisation, by generations, January 2015
- Globalisation as a series of trade-offs
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- Figure 95: Views on overall benefits of globalisation, January 2015
- Trend application insight
The Consumer – What Influences People’s Opinions about Globalisation?
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- Key points
- The strength of the economy drives people’s views on globalisation
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- Figure 96: Factors that affect people’s opinions on globalisation, January 2015
- Social media is a greater influencer for 16-24s
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- Figure 97: Selected factors that influence people’s opinions on globalisation, by age, January 2015
- The power of emotional appeal
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- Figure 98: What influences people’s opinions about globalisation, by views on benefits of globalisation, January 2015
- Trend application insight
Appendix – Expenditure Overview
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- Figure 99: Best- and worst-case forecast for total consumer expenditure, 2014-19
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Appendix – In-home Food
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- Figure 100: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of in-home food, 2014-19
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Appendix – Foodservice (Eating Out and Takeaways)
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- Figure 101: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of foodservice, 2014-19
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Appendix – Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- Figure 102: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, 2014-19
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Appendix – Alcoholic Drinks
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- Figure 103: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks, 2014-19
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Appendix – Beauty and Personal Care
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- Figure 104: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of beauty and personal care, 2014-19
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Appendix – OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- Figure 105: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of OTC and pharmaceuticals, 2014-19
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Appendix – Clothing and Accessories
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- Figure 106: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of clothes and accessories, 2014-19
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Appendix – Household Care
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- Figure 107: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of household care, 2014-19
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Appendix – Technology and Communications
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- Figure 108: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of technology and communications, 2014-19
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Appendix – Leisure and Entertainment
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- Figure 109: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of leisure and entertainment, 2014-19
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Appendix – Home and Garden
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- Figure 110: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of home and garden, 2014-19
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Appendix – Transport
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- Figure 111: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of transport, 2014-19
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Appendix – Holidays
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- Figure 112: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of holidays, 2014-19
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Appendix – Personal Finance
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- Figure 113: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of personal finance, 2014-19
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Appendix – Housing
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- Figure 114: Best- and worst-case forecast consumer expenditure on housing, 2014-19
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Appendix – Newsagents’ Goods
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- Figure 115: Best- and worst-case forecast consumer expenditure on newsagents’ goods, 2014-19
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Appendix – Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- Figure 116: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales in miscellaneous markets, 2014-19
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