Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Key themes in the report
- Data sources
- Definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, NI and RoI, 2010-14
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: Index of value of outstanding mortgage debt, NI and RoI, 2010-19
- Market factors
- Low interest rates drawing consumers to mortgage loans
- Property market across Ireland firmly in recovery
- Increase in property transactions indicates some return to normality
- Economic growth fostering growing consumer confidence
- The consumer
- Significant minority of Irish consumers have mortgage on main property
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- Figure 3: If consumers (or their partner) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main residence, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Majority of consumers have no intention of applying for a mortgage in coming year
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- Figure 4: If consumers intend applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home, home move, or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for their current home within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Difference in opinion reflects different economic, financial and banking environment
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards mortgages and mortgage-related issues, RoI and NI, December 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How likely is an increase in switching behaviour among consumers?
- The facts
- The implications
- What are consumers’ preferences when arranging mortgages?
- The facts
- The implications
- Are consumers comfortably managing their mortgage repayments?
- The facts
- The implications
Market Overview
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- Key points
- Low interest rates keeping mortgages affordable and attractive
- Property prices across Ireland exhibiting post-crash growth
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- Figure 6: Residential property price index, NI, Q4 2006-Q4 2014
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- Figure 7: Residential property prices, annual % change, NI, Q4 2006-Q4 2014
- NI property prices on course for 4% growth in 2015
- Despite recent recovery, NI property market still accessible to FTBs
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- Figure 8: Average residential property prices, UK, by country, 2014
- RoI market went from high to low between 2007 and 2012
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- Figure 9: Residential property price index, RoI, 2005-14
- Figure 10: Residential property prices, annual % change, RoI, 2006-14
- RoI prices currently down 38.5% on peak values
- NI property market to benefit from recent stamp duty changes
- Co-Ownership Housing Scheme opens the door for would-be buyers
- New lending rules in RoI intended to ensure prudent lending
- Housing transactions in NI and RoI on the increase
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- Figure 11: Number of verified residential property sales, NI, 2007-14
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- Figure 12: Residential property transactions, by county, RoI, 2014
- Irish consumers regaining confidence after stresses of recession
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- Figure 13: Consumer Confidence Index, NI, December 2011-December 2014
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- Figure 14: Consumer Confidence Index, RoI, February 2011-February 2015
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- All-Ireland mortgage market valued at €111 billion (£92.5 billion) in 2014
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- Figure 15: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, All-Ireland, NI and RoI, actual, 2010-19
- Outstanding mortgage value to exceed €130 billion by 2019
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- Figure 16: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, All-Ireland, NI and RoI, 2010-19
- Mortgage loan volume in NI up 30% between 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 17: Total number of loans advanced for house purchase, NI, Q4 2012-Q4 2014
- Figure 18: Total number of loans advanced for house purchase, NI, 2011-14
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- Figure 19: Mortgage loans advanced, by category, NI, 2011-14
- Loan volume up more than 45% in RoI between 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 20: Total number of mortgage loans issued, RoI, Q4 2012-Q4 2014
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- Figure 21: Total number of mortgage loans issued, RoI, 2006-14
- Value of mortgage loans up 40% in NI from 2013-14
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- Figure 22: Total value of loans advanced for house purchase, NI, Q4 2012-Q4 2014
- Figure 23: Total value of loans advanced for house purchase, NI, 2011-14
- Value of mortgage loans in RoI up 55% between 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 24: Total value of mortgages issued, RoI, Q4 2012-Q4 2014
- Figure 25: Total value of mortgages issued, RoI, 2006-14
- First-time buyer and home mover affordability better in NI than in UK
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Companies and Innovations
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- Key facts
- Nationwide launches new video link service offering customers greater access to mortgages
- Tesco expands into the UK’s mortgage market by selling loans through brokers
- Lloyds Bank joins in UK home building scheme
- Company profiles
- Allied Irish Bank (AIB)
- Bank of Ireland
- Danske Bank (NI only)
- Halifax (NI only)
- HSBC (NI only)
- KBC Bank Ireland
- Nationwide (NI only)
- Permanent TSB (RoI only)
- Santander
- Ulster Bank
The Consumer – Ownership of Mortgages
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- Key points
- More than a third of consumers currently have a mortgage
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- Figure 26: If consumers (or their partner) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main residence, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Mortgage ownership highest among consumers aged 35-44
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- Figure 27: If consumers (or their partners) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main residence, by age, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Full-time employed and ABC1s most like to have mortgages
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- Figure 28: If consumers (or their partners) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main residence, by work status and social class, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Married/cohabiting consumers most likely to have mortgages
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- Figure 29: If consumers (or their partners) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main residence, by marital status, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Variable/tracker rates dominant in RoI, fixed-term rates dominant in NI
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- Figure 30: Type of mortgage owned, NI and RoI, December 2014
- NI consumers more convinced about merits of switching to a fixed rate
- Evidence of confusion surrounding interest-only mortgages
The Consumer – Future Intentions
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- Key points
- Future mortgage demand significantly higher in NI than in RoI
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- Figure 31: If consumers intend applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home, home move, or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for their current home within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, December 2014
- Buy-to-let activity looking up for year ahead among NI consumers
- 25-34-year-olds least inclined to dismiss future mortgage application
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- Figure 32: Consumers who say they will not be applying for a mortgage or remortgage within the next 12 months, by age and social class, RoI and NI, December 2014
- Doubts around ability to qualify for a mortgage a major deterrent
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- Figure 33: Agreement with statement ‘I do not think that I would be able to get a new mortgage/remortgage at the moment’, by age and social class, NI and RoI, December 2014
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Mortgages
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- Key points
- Some difference of opinion between NI and RoI consumers
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- Figure 34: Attitudes towards mortgages and mortgage-related issues, RoI and NI, December 2014
- Preference for dealing with banks over mortgage brokers or advisers
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- Figure 35: Agreement with statements relating to arrangement of mortgages and arrangement fees, NI and RoI, December 2014
- NI consumers more open to switching than RoI consumers
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- Figure 36: Agreement with statements relating to switching mortgage type and mortgage provider, NI and RoI, December 2014
- NI consumers more comfortable sustaining mortgages
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- Figure 37: Agreement with statements relating to affordability and payments, NI and RoI, December 2014
Appendix
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- NI Toluna data
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- Figure 38: If a consumer (or their partner) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main house, by demographics, NI, December 2014
- Figure 39: Types of mortgages currently owned, by demographics, NI, December 2014
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- Figure 40: If consumers intend applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for their current home within the next 12 months, by demographics, NI, December 2014
- Figure 41: If consumers who intend on applying for a mortgage in the next 12 months would consider applying to the Co-Ownership Housing Scheme, by demographics, NI, December 2014
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- Figure 42: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages, by demographics, NI, December 2014
- Figure 43: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages, by demographics, NI, December 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 44: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages, by demographics, NI, December 2014 (continued)
- RoI Toluna data
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- Figure 45: If a consumer (or their partner) currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main house, by demographics, RoI, December 2014
- Figure 46: Types of mortgages currently owned, by demographics, RoI, December 2014
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- Figure 47: If consumers intend applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for their current home within the next 12 months, by demographics, RoI, December 2014
- Figure 48: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages, by demographics, RoI, December 2014
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- Figure 49: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages, by demographics, RoI, December 2014 (continued)
- Figure 50: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages, by demographics, RoI, December 2014 (continued)
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