Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Staycation turns to awaycation
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- Figure 1: Forecast total holiday market volume, 2009-19
- Figure 2: Forecast overseas holiday market volume, 2009-19
- Figure 3: Forecast domestic holiday market volume, 2009-19
- Package rebound
- Market factors
- Oil down, pound up
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- Figure 4: European Brent Crude Oil monthly average spot price (US$ per barrel), January 2014-January 2015
- Figure 5: Sterling exchange rate versus selected currencies, percentage change, 2009-15*
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Healthier holidays
- Peer pressure
- Ex machina
- New app tools
- The consumer
- Beach and city neck and neck
- The holiday year
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- Figure 6: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
- Over-55s and 25-34s are biggest spenders
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- Figure 7: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
- Premium opportunities
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- Figure 8: Agreement with statements on holiday planning and booking habits, October 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What opportunities are there to raise levels of business outside the peak travel months?
- The facts
- The implications
- Which types of product offer the best growth prospects over the next five years?
- The facts
- The implications
- How can travel and tourism brands appeal to today’s value-hunting holidaymaker?
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Nouveau Poor
- Trend: Why Buy
- Trend: Click and Connect
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Consumer confidence up as wages begin long road to recovery
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- Figure 9: GfK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2013 – January 2015
- Oil prices down (but volatile)
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- Figure 10: European Brent Crude Oil monthly average spot price (US$ per barrel), January 2014-January 2015
- Figure 11: Sterling exchange rate versus selected currencies, annual averages, 2009-14, and spot rate February 2015
- Pound up but holidaymakers need to gamble
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- Figure 12: Sterling exchange rate versus selected currencies, percentage change, 2009-15*
- APD reforms to boost family long haul
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- Figure 13: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates April 2012-April 2015
- But compensation claims could see fare rises
- Over-55s travel boom expected
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- Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2009-19
- Schools out
Innovation, New Product Development and Trends
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- Key points
- Deals/offers/discounts
- Wellness
- Gastro-tourism
- Active families
- Expeditions/authenticity/localism
- Peer-to-peer
- Set-jetting
- I, Robot
- De-hassling travel
- Augmenting reality
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Swing from overseas to UK holidays
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- Figure 15: Estimated total holiday market volume and value, 2009-19
- Figure 16: Estimated overseas holiday market volume and value, 2009-19
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- Figure 17: Estimated domestic holiday market volume and value, 2009-19
- Forecast
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- Figure 18: Forecast total holiday market volume, 2009-19
- Figure 19: Forecast total holiday market value*, 2009-19
- Figure 20: Forecast overseas holiday market volume, 2009-19
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- Figure 21: Forecast overseas holiday market value*, 2009-19
- Figure 22: Forecast domestic holiday market volume, 2009-19
- Figure 23: Forecast domestic holiday market value*, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Package regains market share
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- Figure 24: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2009-14
- Pent-up demand for long haul
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- Figure 25: Volume of overseas holidays, long-haul versus short-haul, 2009-14
- Air travel leads overseas revival
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- Figure 26: Volume of overseas holidays, by transport method, 2009-14
- Surge in short breaks abroad
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- Figure 27: Volume of overseas holidays, by duration, 2009-14
- Figure 28: Percentage share of overseas holidays, by duration, 2009-14
- Mexican wave
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- Figure 29: Top 20 overseas holiday destinations, 2009-14
- UK short breaks outperforming longer holidays
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- Figure 30: Short versus long holidays in Great Britain, by volume, 2009-14
- Camping and caravanning struggles
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- Figure 31: Number of domestic holiday trips in Great Britain, by type of accommodation, 2010-14
- UK rail holidays on track
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- Figure 32: Volume of domestic holidays in Great Britain, by transport used, 2009-13
Market Share
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- Key points
- easyJet increases market share
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- Figure 33: Global passengers uplifted, by top 10 UK airlines, 2013 and 2014
- TUI and Cook show rising numbers
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- Figure 34: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top 10 ATOL holders, 2011-15
The Consumer – Holidays Taken in the Last Year
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- Key points
- Who goes where?
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- Figure 35: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, October 2014
- UK domestic
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- Figure 36: Domestic holidays taken in the past 12 months, by age group, October 2014
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- Figure 37: Domestic holidays taken in the past 12 months, by socio-economic group, October 2014
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- Figure 38: Domestic holidays taken in the past 12 months, by household income, October 2014
- Short-haul
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- Figure 39: Short-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by age group, October 2014
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- Figure 40: Short-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by socio-economic group, October 2014
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- Figure 41: Short-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by household income, October 2014
- Long-haul
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- Figure 42: Long-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by household income, October 2014
- Single and multiple holidaymakers
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- Figure 43: Number of holidays taken per destination in the past 12 months, October 2014
The Consumer – Type of Holidays Taken in the Past Year
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- Key points
- Beach holidays and city breaks equally popular
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- Figure 44: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
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- Figure 45: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by destinations visited, October 2014
- Holiday type demographics
The Consumer – When People Go on Holiday
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- Key points
- The annual holiday curve
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- Figure 46: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
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- Figure 47: Seasons holidays were taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
- Who goes when?
- Autumn of life
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- Figure 48: Holidays taken September-November in the past 12 months, by generation, October 2014
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- Figure 49: Holidays taken June-September in the past 12 months, parents versus non-parents, October 2014
- Seasonal variations by destination
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- Figure 50: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, by destination, October 2014
- Seasonal variations by holiday type
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- Figure 51: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, by type of holiday, October 2014
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- Figure 52: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, by type of holiday (continued), October 2014
The Consumer - How Much People Spend on Holidays
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- Key points
- Who spends what?
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- Figure 53: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
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- Figure 54: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
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- Figure 55: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, by demographics, October 2014
- Cruisers are highest spenders
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- Figure 56: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, by type of holiday, October 2014
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- Figure 57: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, by type of holiday (continued), October 2014
- Shoulder months attract biggest spenders
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- Figure 58: Months holidays were taken, by amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
The Consumer – Holiday Planning Habits
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- Key points
- More planning and shopping around
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- Figure 59: Holiday planning and booking habits, October 2014
- Premium potential
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- Figure 60: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by demographics, October 2014
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- Figure 61: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by holiday type, October 2014
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- Figure 62: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by holiday type (continued), October 2014
- Higher spenders will pay more for favourite brands
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- Figure 63: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by amount spent on holidays, October 2014
The Consumer – Holiday Intentions in 2015
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- Key points
- More of the same?
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- Figure 64: Holiday taking intentions, October 2014
- Under-35s and ABs have highest spending intentions
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- Figure 65: Holiday spending intentions, October 2014
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