Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- The market
- UK gas demand in decline
- Demand for gas from the domestic sector strongly influenced by winter temperatures
-
- Figure 1: Gas consumption by key end use sectors, 2010-14
- Gas distribution and transmission industry report reduced capital expenditure in 2013/14
-
- Figure 2: Total gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
- Gas distribution network operators’ capital expenditure in 2013/14 comes in below allowances set by Ofgem during 2013/14
- Market factors
- UK increasingly dependent on natural gas imports
-
- Figure 3: UK gas supply, 2010-14
- UK’s shale gas potential remains largely unknown
- Wholesale gas prices down by an estimated 20% in 2014
-
- Figure 4: Average wholesale gas prices, 2002-14
- New regulatory framework introduced for current control period
- Companies
- Transmission and distribution industry structure
- Gas supply industry continues to be dominated by ‘big six’ energy firms
- Increased competition from new market entrants in energy retail market
- What we think
Key Insights
-
- What are the key drivers for replacement expenditure by gas distribution network operators?
- What are the key effects of Ofgem’s new regulatory framework, the RIIO model, on the distribution network operators’ approach to infrastructure management and investment?
- Have Ofgem’s settlements for RIIO-GD1 been too generous?
- What are the key findings to date by the ongoing CMA inquiry into the energy market?
Market Positioning
-
- Key points
- Overview
- Customers
- Suppliers
UK Economy
-
- Overview
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Consumer spending
- Business investment
Market Factors
-
- Key points
- Social factors
- Economic factors
- The UK’s increased reliance on gas imports
- Potential for shale gas extraction
- Wholesale gas prices
-
- Figure 5: Average wholesales gas prices, 2002-14
- Environmental and legislative factors
- Climate Change Programme (including Climate Change Levy, Agreement and efficiency measures)
- Emissions Trading Scheme
- Combined heat and power
- EU Renewables Directives
- UK renewables policy
- Renewables Obligation (RO)
- FeedIn Tariffs (FITs)
- The Renewable Heat Incentive
- National Emission Ceilings Directive
- Carbon Emission Reduction Target (CERT) and Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP)
- Energy Company Obligation (ECO)
UK Gas Demand and Supply
-
- Key points
- Overview
- UK gas demand in decline
-
- Figure 6: Segmentation of industrial gas consumption, by end use industries, UK, 2009-13
-
- Figure 7: Segmentation of gas consumption, by non-industrial sectors, UK, 2009-13
-
- Figure 8: Industrial and non-industrial gas consumption, 2009-13
- Power generation
-
- Figure 9: Gas supplied for electricity generation, UK, 2010-14
- Interruptible
- Industrial
-
- Figure 10: Gas supplied to the industrial sector, UK, 2010-14
- Commercial
-
- Figure 11: Gas supplied to the UK commercial sector, 2009-13
- Domestic
-
- Figure 12: Analysis of the development of gas supplied to the UK domestic sector, 2010-14
-
- Figure 13: Segmentation of the UK domestic central heating installations, by type of fuel, 2009-13
-
- Figure 14: Segmentation of UK domestic central heating installations, by type of fuel, 2013
-
- Figure 15: UK installed base of central heating systems, by type of fuel, 1970-2012
- Regional demand
-
- Figure 16: Gas sales and customers by region, Great Britain, 2013
- Northern Ireland gas market
- Gas supply
-
- Figure 17: Total gas supply, UK, 2010-14
-
- Figure 18: Development of the UK gas supply, 2010-14
Gas Transmission and Distribution Capital Expenditure
-
- Key points
- Capital expenditure
- The market 2010-14
-
- Figure 19: Total gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
-
- Figure 20: Total gas transmission capital expenditure, 2009/10-13/14
-
- Figure 21: Total gas distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
-
- Figure 22: Total gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure, 2009/102013/14
-
- Figure 23: Cumulative capital expenditure during GDPRC1 2008-13, by GDN and type
- Replacement expenditure (Repex)
-
- Figure 24: Length of gas mains replaced, by distribution network operator, 2009-13
-
- Figure 25: Cumulative replacement expenditure during GDPRC1 2008-13, by GDN and type
- Individual companies
- National Grid Gas
-
- Figure 26: Gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure by National Grid Gas, 2009/10-2013/14
- Northern Gas Networks
-
- Figure 27: Gas distribution capital expenditure by Northern Gas Networks, 2009/10-2013/14
- Scottish Gas Networks
-
- Figure 28: Gas distribution capital expenditure by Scottish Gas Networks, 2009/10-2013/14
- Southern Gas Networks
-
- Figure 29: Gas distribution capital expenditure by Southern Gas Networks, 2009/10-2013/14
- Wales and West Utilities
-
- Figure 30: Gas distribution capital expenditure by Wales and West Utilities, 2009/10-2013/14
Forecast Capital Expenditure
-
- Key points
- Overview
-
- Figure 31: Ofgem’s required expansion of the number of properties to alleviate fuel poverty, 2013-21
- Innovation at centre of new price control model for gas distribution and transmission network
- Transmission network
-
- Figure 32: Capital expenditure plans by National Grid Gas under RIIO-T1, by category, 2014-21
-
- Figure 33: Annual capital expenditure plans by National Grid Gas under RIIO-T1, by category, 2014-21
- Distribution network
-
- Figure 34: Controllable cost allowances for gas distribution companies under (RIIOGD1), 2014-21
-
- Figure 35: Annual capex plans under RIIO-GD1, by GDN, 2014-21
-
- Figure 36: Annual repex plans under RIIO-GD1, by GDN, 2014-21
-
- Figure 37: Forecast total capex and repex during RIIOGD1, 2013/142020/21
- Individual companies
- Northern Gas Networks
-
- Figure 38: Northern Gas Networks capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 39: Northern Gas Networks capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- Scotland Gas Networks
-
- Figure 40: Scotland Gas Networks capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 41: Scotland Gas Networks capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- Southern Gas Networks
-
- Figure 42: Southern Gas Networks capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 43: Southern Gas Networks capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- Wales and West Utilities (WWU)
-
- Figure 44: WWU capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 45: WWU capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- NGG East of England
-
- Figure 46: NGG East of England capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 47: NGG East of England capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- NGG London
-
- Figure 48: NGG London capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 49: NGG London capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- NGG North West
-
- Figure 50: NGG North West capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 51: NGG North West capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
- NGG West Midlands
-
- Figure 52: NGG West Midlands capex and repex, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
-
- Figure 53: NGG West Midlands capex and repex workload, 2013/14 (actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (planned)
Structure of the Gas Distribution Industry
-
- Key points
- Development and structure of the gas industry
- Industry structure
- Industry development
-
- Figure 54: Structure of the distribution network operators, as of February 2015
- Competition in network connections
National Grid Gas
-
- National Grid Gas’ innovation strategy
-
- Figure 55: Financial analysis of National Grid Gas, 2010-14
Northern Gas Networks
-
-
- Figure 56: Financial analysis of Northern Gas Networks, 2009-13
-
Scotland Gas Networks
-
-
- Figure 57: Financial analysis of Scotland Gas Networks, 2010-14
-
Southern Gas Networks
-
-
- Figure 58: Financial analysis of Southern Gas Networks, 2010-14
-
Wales and West Utilities
-
-
- Figure 59: Financial analysis of Wales & West Utilities, 2010-13
-
Gas Supply Industry
-
- Key points
- Overview and recent industry developments
- ‘Big Six’ suppliers under fire over rising prices
- ‘Big six’ challenged by small independent suppliers
- Energy suppliers cut gas prices in early 2015
- CMA inquiry into energy market
Centrica/British Gas Trading
-
-
- Figure 60: Financial analysis of Centrica, 2009-13
-
- Figure 61: Centrica revenue segmental analysis, 2013
-
- Figure 62: Financial analysis of British Gas Trading, 2009-13
-
EDF Energy
-
-
- Figure 63: Financial analysis of EDF Energy, 2009-13
-
- Figure 64: EDF Energy revenue segmental analysis, 2013
-
RWE Npower
-
-
- Figure 65: Financial analysis of Npower, 2009-13
-
- Figure 66: RWE - UK revenue segmental analysis, 2013
-
E.ON Energy
-
-
- Figure 67: Financial analysis of E.ON Energy Solutions, 2009-13
-
- Figure 68: E.ON revenue segmental analysis, 2013
-
ScottishPower Energy Retail
-
-
- Figure 69: Financial analysis of ScottishPower Energy Retail, 2009-13
-
- Figure 70: ScottishPower revenue segmental analysis, 2013
-
Sse
-
-
- Figure 71: Financial analysis of SSE, 2010-14
-
- Figure 72: SSE revenue segmental analysis, 2014
-
Ecotricity Group
-
-
- Figure 73: Financial analysis of Ecotricity Group, 2010-14
-
First Utility
-
-
- Figure 74: Financial analysis of First Utility, 2009-13
-
Good Energy Group
-
-
- Figure 75: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2009-13
-
- Figure 76: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-13
-
Future Gas Demand
-
- Key points
- The market
-
- Figure 77: Forecast UK gas demand, 2015-35
-
- Figure 78: Forecast UK gas demand, 2015-35
-
- Figure 79: Forecast gas demand, by sector, 2015-35
-
- Figure 80: Forecast UK gas demand by sector under “slow progression” scenario, 2013-22
- Figure 81: Forecast UK gas demand by sector under “gone green” scenario, 2013-22
- Figure 82: Forecast UK gas demand by sector under “no progression” scenario, 2013-22
- Figure 83: Forecast UK gas demand by sector under “low carbon life” scenario, 2013-22
- Domestic demand
- Home insulation
- Smart meters programme
- Heat pumps
- Industrial/commercial demand
- Power generation demand
-
- Figure 84: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “slow progression” scenario, by source, 2015-35
-
- Figure 85: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “gone green” scenario, by source, 2015-35
-
- Figure 86: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “no progression” scenario, by source, 2015-35
-
- Figure 87: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “low carbon life” scenario, by source, 2014-35
- Imports
-
- Figure 88: Existing UK gas import infrastructure, as of December 2014
-
- Figure 89: Proposed UK import projects, as of December 2014
- Exports
Further Sources and Contacts
-
- Trade associations and regulatory bodies
- Energy Networks Association
- Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)
- Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Scotland (Ofgem Scotland)
- Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Wales (Ofgem Wales)
- Society of British Gas Industries
- Trade exhibitions
- Offshore Europe 2015
- Sustainability Live 2015
- Trade magazines
- Modern Utility Management
- Utility Week
Back to top