Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Food and drink specialists’ sales remain relatively flat
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of food and drink via specialist retailers, 2009-19
- Market factors
- Inflation continues to drive grocery prices down
- The ‘savvy shopper’ remains commonplace
- Population changes should benefit specialists
- A shrinking pub landscape has contributed to the growth of c-stores
- The consumer
- Bakers and butchers are the most popular types of specialists
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- Figure 2: Specialist food and drink retailers used in the last 3 months, December 2014
- Specialist retailers can appeal by leveraging unique produce
- Food specialists fall down on cost comparisons
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- Figure 3: Perceptions of food and drink specialists versus supermarkets, December 2014
- Cost is the key barrier to usage of specialists
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- Figure 4: Factors that would encourage more shopping at food and drink specialists, December 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- The importance of the online channel to specialists
- The facts
- The implications
- Specialists and the supermarket price wars
- The facts
- The implications
- Is the horsemeat scandal still benefiting the specialists?
- The facts
- The implications
- How can specialists compete with c-stores more effectively?
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Return to the Experts
- Locavore
- Accentuate the Negative
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Inflation continues to drive prices down
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- Figure 5: Consumer prices: Annual % change, January 2012-January 2015
- Figure 6: Annual consumer prices inflation (food, beverages, tobacco) versus annual growth in grocers’ sector sales, 2009-14
- The ‘savvy shopper’ remains commonplace
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- Figure 7: Percentage of 20-34-year-olds living with their parents in the UK, by age group, 2004-13
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- Figure 8: Consumers’ financial health, December 2014
- Figure 9: Financial confidence index, 2009-2015
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- Figure 10: Grocery shopping habits, December 2014
- Food labelling information was under scrutiny prior to the horsemeat scandal
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- Figure 11: Retail value and volume sales of selected UK food categories, 52 weeks to December 2012 and to April 2013
- An ageing population should benefit the specialists market
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- Figure 12: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19
- A shrinking pub landscape has contributed to the growth of c-stores
Strengths & Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Food and drink specialists’ sales remain relatively flat
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- Figure 13: UK food and drink value sales via specialist retailers, at current and constant prices, 2009-19
- Figure 14: Forecast of UK value sales of food and drink via specialist retailers, 2009-19
- Focus on online specialist sales
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- Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of online food and drink via specialist retailers, 2009-19
- Figure 16: UK online value food and drink sales via specialist retailers, at current and constant prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 17: Online shares of grocery sales: major supermarkets/multiple grocers vs specialists, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Channels of Distribution for Food, Drink and Tobacco
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- Key points
- Major supermarkets dominate but are seeing their share eroded
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- Figure 18: Estimated sales of food, drink and tobacco (excluding vat), by type of retailer, 2009-14
- Figure 19: Estimated sales of food, drink and tobacco, by type of retailer, 2014
- Food and drink specialists are falling in number
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- Figure 20: Number of food and drink specialists, 2008-13
- Butchers are the most prevalent food specialist
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- Figure 21: Share of food and drink specialists turnover, 2013
Companies and Products
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- Figure 22: Major specialist or regional food retailers’ financial performance (excluding vat) and outlet numbers, 2011-14
- Figure 23: Major specialist or regional food retailers’ financial operating performance, 2011-14
- Greggs
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 24: Greggs financial performance, 2011-14
- Recent activity
- NBTY (Holland & Barrett/GNC)
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 25: Holland & Barrett Retail financial performance, 2012 and 2013
- Recent activity
- Majestic Wine
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 26: Majestic Wine Warehouse financial performance, 2011-14
- Recent activity
- Thorntons
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 27: Thorntons financial performance, 2013-14
- Recent activity
- Direct Wines
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 28: Direct Wines financial performance, 2011-14
- Recent activity
- The Wine Society
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 29: The Wine Society financial performance, 2011-14
- Abel & Cole
- Background and company information
- Financial performance
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- Figure 30: Abel & Cole financial performance, 2011-14
- FARMA
- Background and company information
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Who’s Innovating?
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- Selected NPD activity
- Drinks retailers
- Butchers and Greengrocers
- Bakeries and Confectioners
- Health stores
The Consumer – Usage of Food and Drink Specialists
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- Key points
- Bakers and butchers are the most popular types of specialists
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- Figure 31: Specialist food and drink retailers shopped at in the last 3 months, December 2014
- Limited usage of other specialist stores
- Most drinkers prefer to buy alcoholic drinks from supermarkets
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- Figure 32: Repertoire of types of specialist retailers used, December 2014
- Specialist stores are most widely used to top up the main shop
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- Figure 33: Specialist retailer shopping habits, December 2014
The Consumer – Shopping at Specialist Retailers
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- Key points
- Specialist retailers can appeal by leveraging unique produce
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- Figure 34: Shopping at food and drink specialists, December 2014
- Convenience also shapes usage of specialists
- The inconvenience of ‘shopping around’
The Consumer – Comparison of Food and Drink Specialists vs Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Food specialists fall down on cost comparisons
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- Figure 35: Perceptions of food and drink specialists versus supermarkets, December 2014
- Staff can also be a USP for specialists
- The convenience of specialists
The Consumer – Boosting Visits to Food and Drink Specialists
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- Key points
- Cost is the key barrier to usage of specialists
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- Figure 36: Factors that would encourage more shopping at food and drink specialists, December 2014
- Access and convenience are also potential enticements
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- Figure 37: Main benefits of shopping online, December 2014
- Range and quality of goods are additional ways of boosting business
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK food and drink specialists market, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK online food and drink specialists market, by value, 2014-19
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