Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2009-19
- Forecast
- Market factors
- Ongoing negative media focus on sugar and sugary drinks is affecting consumers
- The wider use of stevia leaf extract offers scope to quell concerns around sugar and artificial sweeteners
- CSD brands are well placed to benefit from the decline in alcohol consumption
- The 2014 ‘summer of sport’ offers marketing opportunities to the industry
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Cola brands continue to dominate CSD value sales in the off-trade
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- Figure 2: Shares of leading brands in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2013-14*
- Coke leads NPD in 2012
- CSD adspend surges in 2013
- The consumer
- Five in six consumers drink carbonated soft drinks
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- Figure 3: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2014
- Consumption of CSDs peaks in the home
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- Figure 4: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2014
- A quarter of consumers drink fewer CDS than six months ago
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- Figure 5: Change in use of CSDs, March 2014
- Figure 6: Reasons for drinking fewer CSDs, March 2014
- Quenching one’s thirst is the most popular reason for drinking CSDs
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- Figure 7: Reasons for drinking carbonated soft drinks, March 2014
- Half of users think that CSDs with less sweet flavours would complement a meal better
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards CSDs, March 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- CSDs should counter negative health perceptions by doing more to promote the wide availability of lighter variants
- The facts
- The implications
- Pairing CSDs with meals offers growth opportunities
- The facts
- The implications
- Natural ingredients offer a way to trade consumers up
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Guiding Choice
- Trend: Patriot Games
- Mintel Futures: East Meets West
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Slowing growth in the CSD core user group poses challenges for brands
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- Figure 9: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-14 and 2014-19
- Ongoing negative media focus on sugar and sugary drinks is affecting consumers
- Possibility of a sugar tax raised
- Brands respond with NPD
- The 2014 ‘summer of sport’ including the FIFA World Cup and Glasgow Commonwealth Games offers sales opportunities
- The EU’s vote of confidence in aspartame and Coca-Cola’s use of stevia send a positive signal for wider usage in CSDs
- Aspartame
- Stevia
- Sustainability remains a concern to the CSD category
- CSD brands are yet to fully realise the opportunity afforded by falling alcohol consumption
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- Figure 10: Household consumption of alcoholic drinks (in and out of home), 2001-11
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola leads NPD, fuelled by new packaging innovation
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- Figure 11: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by ultimate company, 2010-13
- Bottlegreen is the latest brand to target the premium mixers market
- Sector shows environmental credentials with almost two in three new products featuring eco-friendly packaging
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- Figure 12: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by top 10 claims, 2010-13
- More than one in four new launches bear a low/no/reduced calorie claim
- Brands use products to demonstrate their presence on social media channels
- Cola’s share of launches declines as other flavours gain ground in 2013
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- Figure 13: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by flavour (incl. blend), 2010-13
- Drinks giants develop a taste for cherry
- Botanical flavours offer an opportunity to add value
- CSDs seek to mimic flavours typically found in alcoholic drinks
- International innovation looks to functionality in CSDs
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Volume growth is forecast to slow down in the years ahead
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- Figure 14: UK total value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks 2009-19
- Vagaries of weather see volatile growth in CSDs
- Sugar concerns pose a threat to the market
- Inflation to drive value growth in the market
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- Figure 15: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2009-19
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- Figure 16: Forecast of total UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2009-19
- Take-home sales are forecast to see only modest growth
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- Figure 17: UK take-home value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks 2009-19
- On-premise sales may benefit from increasing consumer confidence
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- Figure 18: UK on-premise value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- Off-trade colas grew volumes ahead of the market
- Mixers are the strongest-performing segment by volume in the off-trade
- Adult drinks see sharpest increase in off-trade value growth
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- Figure 19: Off-trade value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks, by type, 2012 and 2013
Market Share
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola leads the pack with healthy value and volume growth
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- Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2013/14*
- Coke Zero steams ahead
- Pepsi Max makes strong gains
- AG Barr maintains market share despite phasing out flavours ahead of failed merger
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- Figure 21: Leading brands in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2012/13 and 2013/14
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- Figure 22: Leading brands in the take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Figure 23: Top five manufacturers’ value sales in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, 2012/13 and 2013/14
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- Figure 24: Top five manufacturers’ volume sales in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Companies and Products
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- AG Barr
- Background
- Recent activity
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Advertising and promotion
- Britvic Plc
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Advertising and promotion
- Coca-Cola
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Fentimans
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- PepsiCo
- Background
- Product range and product innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- SHS Group
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Total adspend reaches a four-year high in 2013
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- Figure 25: Main monitored advertising spend on carbonated soft drinks, 2010-13
- Figure 26: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 advertisers*, 2010-13
- Coke extends its dominance
- Freedrinks rockets to third place behind Pepsi
- Britvic and Schweppes pare back adspend
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- Figure 27: Main monitored media advertising expenditure* on carbonated soft drinks, by top 10 brands**, 2010-13
- Cola brands account for three quarters of total spend
- Coca-Cola
- The brand puts calories centre stage in an industry first
- Diet Coke celebrates 30th anniversary
- 2014 sees major campaign for Coke Zero and the World Cup
- Coke launches “bigger and better” ‘Share a Coke’ activity for summer 2014
- Coke continues to build seasonal relevance
- Sprite and Fanta support new products
- PepsiCo sees its share of adspend decline in 2013 despite calling on Beyoncé
- Pepsi looks to tap into the World Cup
- Freedrinks (Zeo) is third only to Coca-Cola and PepsiCo in 2013 adspend
- Support for TV boosts advertising to a four-year high
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- Figure 28: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by media type, 2010-13
- Support for cinema advertising sees strong recovery
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 29: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the carbonated soft drink sector, March 2014
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 30: Attitudes, by carbonated soft drink brand, March 2014
- Brand personality
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- Figure 31: Carbonated soft drink brand personality – Macro image, March 2014
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- Figure 32: Carbonated soft drink brand personality – Micro image, March 2014
- Brand experience
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- Figure 33: Carbonated soft drink brand usage, March 2014
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- Figure 34: Satisfaction with various carbonated soft drink brands, March 2014
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- Figure 35: Consideration of carbonated soft drink brands, March 2014
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- Figure 36: Consumer perceptions of current carbonated soft drink brand performance, March 2014
- Brand recommendation
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- Figure 37: Likely recommendation of various carbonated soft drink brands, March 2014
The Consumer – Usage of CSDs
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- Key points
- Standard CSDs are drunk by over two thirds of adults
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- Figure 38: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2014
- Standard CSDs remain the more widely drunk type
- Half the nation drink light CSDs
- Usage of CSDs falls with age
- Cola is the most popular type of CSD
- One in 10 adults drink lighter CSDs only
- Affluent consumers drive consumption of mixers out of home
- Half of adults consume CSDs in foodservice/on-trade outlets
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- Figure 39: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2014
- Almost a third drink five or more types of CSDs per month
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- Figure 40: Repertoire of usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2014
The Consumer – Changes in Usage of CSDs and Reasons for Drinking Less
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- Key points
- A quarter of consumers drink fewer CSDs than six months ago
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- Figure 41: Change in usage of CSDs, March 2014
- Half of those drinking fewer CSDs are put off by sugar
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- Figure 42: Reasons for drinking fewer CSDs, March 2014
- A third of consumers who drink fewer CSDs aim to save money
- A third of consumers who drink fewer CSDs do so due to worries about artificial sweeteners
- Nearly one in six drink fewer CSDs because of health campaigns
The Consumer – Reasons for Drinking CSDs
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- Key points
- CSDs are primarily consumed to quench consumers’ thirst
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- Figure 43: Reasons for drinking carbonated soft drinks, March 2014
- Treat status of CSDs is low compared to other categories
- A quarter of adults drink CSDs as an alternative to an alcoholic drink in a pub/bar/restaurant
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards CSDs
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- Key points
- Three in five users would like CSDs to be more visible when drinking out
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards CSDs, March 2014
- Half of users think that CSDs with less sweet flavours would complement a meal better
- One in five users like to make their own CSDs at home
The Consumer – Factors Which Encourage Users to Pay More for CSDs
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- Key points
- A quarter of users would pay more for a CSD made using only natural ingredients
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- Figure 45: Factors which would encourage paying more for CSDs, March 2014
- British ingredients would be a reason to trade up for one in five users
- CSDs with functional benefits could add value to the category
- Functional food launches regain momentum
- EFSA regulation continues to limit claims
- One in 10 users would pay more to customise the flavour of their CSDs
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 46: Best and worst case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 47: Best and worst case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2014-19
- Figure 48: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 49: Forecast of UK take-home sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2009-19
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- Figure 50: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2014-19
- Figure 51: Forecast of UK take-home sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2009-19
- Figure 52: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 53: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value 2009-19
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- Figure 54: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2014-19
- Figure 55: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2009-19
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 56: Brand usage, March 2014
- Figure 57: Brand commitment, March 2014
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- Figure 58: Brand momentum, March 2014
- Figure 59: Brand diversity, March 2014
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- Figure 60: Brand satisfaction, March 2014
- Figure 61: Brand recommendation, March 2014
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- Figure 62: Brand attitude, March 2014
- Figure 63: Brand image – Macro image, March 2014
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- Figure 64: Brand image – Micro image, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of CSDs
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- Figure 65: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, March 2014
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- Figure 66: Most popular usage of carbonated soft drinks – Any usage, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 67: Next most popular usage of carbonated soft drinks – Any usage, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 68: Other usage of carbonated soft drinks – Any usage, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 69: Least popular usage of carbonated soft drinks – Any usage, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 70: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Standard cola, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 71: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Low/no-calorie/diet cola, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 72: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Standard lemonade, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 73: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Other standard fruit-flavoured carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 74: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Low/no-calorie/diet lemonade, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 75: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 76: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Mixers, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 77: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Other low/no-calorie/diet fruit-flavoured carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 78: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Ginger beer, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 79: Usage of carbonated soft drinks – Other carbonated soft drink, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 80: Repertoire of usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2014
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- Figure 81: Repertoire of usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Changes in Usage of CSDs and Reasons for Drinking Less
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- Figure 82: Change in usage of CSDs in the last six months, March 2014
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- Figure 83: Change in usage of CSDs in the last six months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 84: Reasons for drinking fewer CSDs, March 2014
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- Figure 85: Most popular reasons for drinking fewer CSDs, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 86: Next most popular reasons for drinking fewer CSDs, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 87: Other reasons for drinking fewer CSDs, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Reasons for Drinking CSDs
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- Figure 88: Reasons for drinking carbonated soft drinks, March 2014
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- Figure 89: Most popular reasons for drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 90: Next most popular reasons for drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 91: Next most popular reasons for drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2014 (continued)
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards CSDs
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- Figure 92: Attitudes towards CSDs, March 2014
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- Figure 93: Agreement with the statement ‘Bars/pubs/restaurants should make carbonated soft drinks more visible to customers’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 94: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in buying carbonated soft drinks that aid digestion’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 95: Agreement with the statement ‘I like to check the ingredients on the packaging of carbonated soft drinks’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 96: Agreement with the statement ‘Carbonated soft drinks with less sweet flavours would complement a meal better’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 97: Agreement with the statement ‘Carbonated soft drinks which are less fizzy appeal to me’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 98: Agreement with the statement ‘I’d be interested in buying carbonated soft drinks containing botanical extracts’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 99: Agreement with the statement ‘Recommendations from friends/family encourage me to try new types of carbonated soft drinks’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 100: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in buying high-quality mixers to go with spirits in bars/restaurants^’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 101: Agreement with the statement ‘Most carbonated soft drinks taste too overpowering to drink with a meal’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 102: Agreement with the statement ‘There are not enough carbonated soft drinks available that use British ingredients’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 103: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying a carbonated soft drink with a thicker texture’, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 104: Agreement with the statement ‘I like to make my own carbonated soft drinks at home’, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Factors Which Would Encourage Paying More for CSDs
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- Figure 105: Factors which would encourage paying more for CSDs, March 2014
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- Figure 106: Most popular factors which would encourage paying more for CSDs, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 107: Next most popular factors which would encourage paying more for CSDs, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 108: Other factors which would encourage paying more for CSDs, by demographics, March 2014
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