Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The future
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2009-19
- Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2009-19
- Market factors
- Warm weather provides a boost
- Decline in adults in family lifestage
- Health remains an issue
- Companies
- Unilever leads the ice cream market
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- Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK retail ice cream market, by value, 2013/14*
- A decline in NPD in 2013
- Adspend exceeds £30 million
- The consumer
- Ice cream and desserts are deemed indulgent and comforting
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- Figure 4: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with ice cream, desserts and yogurt/yogurt drinks, April 2014
- More than eight in 10 buy and eat ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt
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- Figure 5: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten/bought in the past 12 months, April 2014
- Two in five see frozen yogurt as healthier than ice cream
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards ice cream, April 2014
- More than three in four adults eat desserts
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- Figure 7: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months, April 2014
- Individual portions appeal to two in five
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards desserts, April 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Innovation on flavour helps to cater to the more adventurous consumer
- The facts
- The implications
- Snacking poses an opportunity to expand usage
- The facts
- The implications
- Investment in healthier versions could help to improve ice cream’s image
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Make it Mine
- Trend: Guiding Choice
- Trend: Brand Intervention
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Warm summer 2013 weather boosts sales
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- Figure 9: Mean temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours over summer (June, July and August), UK, 2008-13
- Rise in consumer spending could offer opportunities for trading up
- Manufacturers remain under pressure from rising commodity prices
- Sugar content is a concern for those eating ice cream
- Forecast decline in the number of adults in family lifestage could affect the market adversely
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- Figure 10: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2008-18
- Rise in one-person households poses a challenge
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- Figure 11: UK households, by size, 2008-18
- That ABs account for one in four adults should continue to benefit premium products
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who's Innovating?
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- Key points
- Chilled desserts lead NPD in 2013
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- Figure 12: New product launches in ice cream and desserts, by segment, 2010-14
- Snacking fuels innovation
- Ice cream
- Desserts
- Flavour innovation caters to consumer interest
- Coffee varieties are on-trend
- Alcohol-inspired flavours cater to adult tastes
- Dessert-inspired flavours
- Frozen yogurt segment sees new flavours
- Sweet and savoury
- Development of lower-fat/sugar versions is limited
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- Figure 13: New product launches in ice cream and desserts, by ‘low/no/reduced fat’ and ‘low/no/reduced sugar’ claims, 2010-14
- Free-from launches in ice cream look to cater to diet-specific needs
- Appealing to the family market
- Ice cream
- Desserts
- Brands look to build on their equity and extend into new areas
- Ice cream
- Desserts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Ice cream
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- Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2009-19
- Forecast – Ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt
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- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2009-19
- Desserts
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- Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of desserts, 2009-19
- Forecast – Desserts
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- Figure 17: Forecast of UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2009-19
- Methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Ice cream holds massive lead in the market
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- Figure 18: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2011-14
- Multipacks see strongest growth in ice cream
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, by format, 2011-14
- Chilled formats take the lead in desserts
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of ambient, chilled and frozen desserts, 2009-14
Market Share
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- Key points
- Unilever accounts for almost half the market by value
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- Figure 21: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail ice cream market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Magnum extends its lead in the ice cream market
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail ice cream market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Own-label accounts for more than two fifths of volumes, but just a quarter of value sales
- Müller Rice leads the chilled desserts category
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- Figure 23: Estimated UK retail sales of leading brands in chilled dessert, by value and volume, 2012 and 2013
- Ambrosia grows sales and share in ambient desserts
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail ambient desserts market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Own-label holds biggest share, despite dip in sales
- Premier leads ambient desserts
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- Figure 25: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail ambient desserts market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Own-label dominates frozen desserts
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail frozen desserts market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
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- Figure 27: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail frozen desserts market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Companies and Products
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- General Mills (Häagen-Dazs)
- Product range
- Recent activity
- Mars
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity
- Müller
- Product range and innovation
- Product innovation
- Recent activity
- Nestlé
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity
- R&R
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Recent activity
- Premier Foods
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity
- Unilever
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity
Brand Advertising, Perceptions and Social Media
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- Brand advertising
- Key points
- Desserts overtake ice cream by adspend in 2013
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- Figure 28: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream and desserts market, 2010-14
- Müller dominates adspend in 2013
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- Figure 29: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by top 10 advertisers, 2010-14
- Unilever leads overall
- Premier Foods continues investment in power brand Ambrosia
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- Figure 30: Share of advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by top 10 brands, 2013
- Brand perceptions
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 31: Key brand metrics, February 2014
- Brand map
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- Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the ice cream and dessert sector, February 2014
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 33: Attitudes, by ice cream and dessert brand, February 2014
- Brand personality
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- Figure 34: Ice cream and dessert brand personality – Macro image, February 2014
- Brand usage
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- Figure 35: Ice cream and dessert brand usage, February 2014
- Brand experience
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- Figure 36: Ice cream and dessert brand experience, February 2014
- Social media and online buzz
- Social media metrics
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- Figure 37: Social media metrics of selected ice cream and dessert brands, May 2014
- Ben & Jerry’s dominates online mentions
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- Figure 38: Social media usage, by age, February 2014
- Ambrosia’s conversation is low
- Online mentions
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- Figure 39: Share of conversation of selected ice cream and dessert brands, by week, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Ben and Jerry’s dominates online conversation year-round
- Magnum appears to be most seasonal in attracting conversation
- Bradley Cooper earns Häagen-Dazs online share
- Ambrosia sparks little conversation online
- Topics of discussion
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- Figure 40: Topics of discussion around selected ice cream and dessert brands, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Flavour drives conversation the most
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- Figure 41: Mentions of selected ice cream and dessert brands around topic of flavours, by brand, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Consumers often talk about Ben & Jerry’s in relation to its tub format
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- Figure 42: Mentions of selected ice cream and dessert brands around topic of format/type, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Figure 43: Mentions of Ben & Jerry’s in reference to format/type, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Bradley Cooper assists Häagen-Dazs discussion
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- Figure 44: Mentions around Häagen-Dazs and advertising, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Advertising mentions do not necessarily follow advertising spend
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- Figure 45: Advertising spend of selected ice cream and dessert brands, by week, 29th April 2013-4th May 2014
- Analysis by brand
- Ben & Jerry’s
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- Figure 46: Topic cloud around mentions of Ben & Jerry’s, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Magnum
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- Figure 47: Magnum’s share of conversation across brands analysed, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Häagen-Dazs
- Gü
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- Figure 48: Topic cloud around mentions of Gü, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Ambrosia
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Multiples dominate the market
- Ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt
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- Figure 49: UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2011-13
- Desserts
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- Figure 50: UK retail value sales of desserts, by outlet type, 2011-13
The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Ice Cream and Desserts
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- Key points
- Ice cream and desserts are deemed indulgent and comforting
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- Figure 51: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with ice cream, desserts and yogurt/yogurt drinks, April 2014
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- Figure 52: Qualities associated with ice cream, desserts and yogurt/yogurt drinks, April 2014
- More than three in 10 view ice cream and desserts as unhealthy
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- Figure 53: Selected qualities associated with ice cream, desserts and yogurt/yogurt drinks, by gender, April 2014
- Two in five see chilled and frozen desserts as suitable for a special occasion
- Opportunities to push satiety claim for ambient desserts
- Methodology
The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream
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- Key points
- More than eight in 10 buy ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt
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- Figure 54: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten/bought in the past 12 months, April 2014
- Households with children are more likely to buy ice cream
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- Figure 55: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought/eaten in the past 12 months, by presence of children, April 2014
- Frozen yogurt and sorbet are most popular among the young
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- Figure 56: Sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the past 12 months, by age, April 2014
- One in four adults have bought more than six types of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt
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- Figure 57: Repertoire of types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought and eaten in the past 12 months, April 2014
The Consumer – Interest in Ice Cream Flavours
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- Key points
- Coffee-inspired flavours are the most popular
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- Figure 58: Interest in ice cream flavours, April 2014
- A fifth have tried sweet and savoury flavours
- South American flavours generate greatest future interest
- A third of adults show interest in ethnic flavours
- Dessert and alcohol-inspired flavours show potential for future trial
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Two in five see frozen yogurt as healthier than ice cream
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards ice cream, April 2014
- A minority look for authentic production and regionality
- Sugar content causes concern for more than a third of buyers and eaters
- Flavour innovation is a driver to a third of buyers and eaters
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- Figure 60: Agreement with the statement ‘I am prompted to buy ice cream when I see a new flavour’, by age and region, April 2014
The Consumer – Usage of Desserts
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- Key points
- More than three in four adults eat desserts
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- Figure 61: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months, April 2014
- Custard attracts an older user base
- Dessert toppings and packet mixes are eaten/bought by less than a fifth
- Chilled desserts are the most popular format
- A fifth buy and an equal number eat just one type of dessert
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- Figure 62: Repertoire of types of desserts bought and eaten in the past three months, April 2014
The Consumer – Purchasing of Desserts
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- Key points
- The majority of dessert buyers are buying the same amount as a year ago
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- Figure 63: Changes in purchase patterns of desserts over the last 12 months, April 2014
- Health is the main reason to buy fewer desserts
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- Figure 64: Reasons for buying fewer desserts compared to a year ago, April 2014
- More than half cut back because of cost
The Consumer – Occasions for Eating Desserts
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- Key points
- More than three in five eat desserts after a meal on the weekend
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- Figure 65: Occasions for eating desserts*, April 2014
- More than a third eat desserts on special occasions
- Two in five 16-34s eat desserts as a snack at home
- Entertaining is a driver for over-55s
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Desserts
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- Key points
- Individual portions appeal to two in five
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- Figure 66: Attitudes towards desserts, April 2014
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- Figure 67: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see more desserts come in individual portions (eg cheesecake for one)’, by household size, April 2014
- Almost a third would like to see more exciting flavours
- Making desserts more snackable could attract 16-24s
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 68: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2008-18
- Figure 69: UK households, by size, 2008-18
- Figure 70: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-18
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by volume, 2014-19
- Figure 73: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by volume, 2009-19
- Figure 74: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of desserts, by value, 2014-19
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- Figure 75: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of desserts, by volume, 2014-19
- Figure 76: Forecast of UK retail sales of desserts, by volume, 2009-19
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Appendix – Brand Advertising, Perceptions and Social Media
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- Figure 77: Brand usage, February 2014
- Figure 78: Brand commitment, February 2014
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- Figure 79: Brand diversity, February 2014
- Figure 80: Brand satisfaction, February 2014
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- Figure 81: Brand recommendation, February 2014
- Figure 82: Brand attitude, February 2014
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- Figure 83: Brand image – Macro image, February 2014
- Figure 84: Online mentions and share of conversation of selected ice cream and dessert brands, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
- Figure 85: Topics of discussion around selected ice cream and dessert brands, 28th April 2013-3rd May 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Ice Cream and Desserts
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- Figure 86: Qualities associated with yogurts, ice cream and desserts, April 2014
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- Figure 87: Most popular qualities associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 88: Next most popular qualities associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 89: Other qualities associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 90: Most popular qualities associated with chilled desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 91: Next most popular qualities associated with chilled desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 92: Other qualities associated with chilled desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 93: Most popular qualities associated with desserts stored at room temperature, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 94: Next most popular qualities associated with desserts stored at room temperature, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 95: Other qualities associated with desserts stored at room temperature, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 96: Most popular qualities associated with frozen desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 97: Next most popular qualities associated with frozen desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 98: Other qualities associated with frozen desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 99: Most popular qualities associated with yogurt/fromage frais, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 100: Next most popular qualities associated with yogurt/fromage frais, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 101: Other qualities associated with yogurt/fromage frais, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 102: Most popular qualities associated with yogurt drinks, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 103: Next most popular qualities associated with yogurt drinks, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 104: Other qualities associated with yogurt drinks, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream
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- Figure 105: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten/bought in the past 12 months, April 2014
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- Figure 106: Most popular types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought in the past 12 months – Have bought in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 107: Next most popular types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought in the past 12 months – Have bought in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 108: Other types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought in the past 12 months – Have bought in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 109: Most popular types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the past 12 months – Have eaten in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 110: Next most popular types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the past 12 months – Have eaten in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 111: Other types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the past 12 months – Have eaten in the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 112: Repertoire of types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought in the past 12 months, April 2014
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- Figure 113: Repertoire of types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 114: Repertoire of types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the past 12 months, April 2014
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- Figure 115: Repertoire of types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Interest in Ice Cream Flavours
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- Figure 116: Interest in ice cream flavours, April 2014
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- Figure 117: Interest in ice cream flavours – Coffee-inspired, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 118: Interest in ice cream flavours – Dessert-inspired, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 119: Interest in ice cream flavours – Sharp flavours, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 120: Interest in ice cream flavours – Sweet and savoury mixed, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 121: Interest in ice cream flavours – Alcohol-inspired^, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 122: Interest in ice cream flavours – Seasonal flavours, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 123: Interest in ice cream flavours – Ethnic, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 124: Interest in ice cream flavours – Flavours featuring spices, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 125: Interest in ice cream flavours – South American flavours, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 126: Interest in ice cream flavours – Hot flavours, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 127: Interest in ice cream flavours – Savoury, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream
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- Figure 128: Attitudes towards ice cream, frozen yogurt and sorbet, April 2014
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- Figure 129: Most popular attitudes towards ice cream, frozen yogurt and sorbet, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 130: Next most popular attitudes towards ice cream, frozen yogurt and sorbet, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 131: Other attitudes towards ice cream, frozen yogurt and sorbet, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Desserts
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- Figure 132: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months, April 2014
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- Figure 133: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 134: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Chilled desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 135: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Custard, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 136: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Non-chilled desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 137: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Packet dessert mixes, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 138: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Frozen desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 139: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Dessert toppings/sauce, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 140: Types of desserts eaten/bought in the past three months – Other, by demographics, April 2014
- Repertoire
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- Figure 141: Repertoire of types of desserts bought in the past three months, April 2014
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- Figure 142: Repertoire of types of desserts bought in the past three months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 143: Repertoire of types of desserts eaten in the past three months, April 2014
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- Figure 144: Repertoire of types of desserts eaten in the past three months, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Purchasing of Desserts
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- Figure 145: Changes in purchase patterns of desserts over the last 12 months, April 2014
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- Figure 146: Changes in purchase patterns of desserts over the last 12 months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 147: Reasons for buying fewer desserts compared to year ago, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Occasions for Eating Desserts
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- Figure 148: Reasons for eating desserts, April 2014
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- Figure 149: Reasons for eating desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Desserts
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- Figure 150: Attitudes towards desserts, April 2014
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- Figure 151: Most popular attitudes towards desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 152: Next most popular attitudes towards desserts, by demographics, April 2014
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