Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The market
- Sales forecasted to reach $13.2 billion in 2019
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
- In-store baked cakes and pies represent more than half of the category
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Key players
- Top five brands increase year-over-year sales
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- Figure 3: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, by leading companies, 2014*
- Retail channels
- Supermarket sales represent two thirds of the category
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- Figure 4: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- The consumer
- More than two thirds have eaten RTE cakes and pies
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- Figure 5: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
- Format, promotions most influential
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- Figure 6: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, Top five, April 2014
- Cakes and pies viewed as an indulgence
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- Figure 7: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, top five, April 2014
- Taste trumps nutrition
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- Figure 8: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, top five, April 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Are consumers still willing to indulge with cakes and pies?
- Issues
- Insight: Now they can indulge responsibly
- How can product offerings be improved?
- Issues
- Insight: Focus on flavors, ingredients, and format
- What effect will private label offerings have on the category?
- Issues
- Insight: Private label will increase competition for price, differentiation
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Transumers
- Trend: Mood to Order
- Trend: Hungry Planet
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales forecasted to reach $13.2 billion in 2019
- Sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Increased snacking occasions to positively impact the category
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- Figure 12: adults aged 20 years and older consuming specified number of snacks per day, 1977-78 and 2007-08
- Obesity epidemic will force manufacturers to offer BFY options
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- Figure 13: Age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in US, by gender, among adults aged 20 and older, 2009-10 and 2011-12
- Population growth helps position Hispanics as a target audience
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- Figure 14: Total US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Baking from mixes, scratch may reduce need to purchase prepared items
- Stand-alone bakeries may appeal to gourmet seekers
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies lead in category growth
- Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Sales growth of in-store baked cakes and pies slows
- Sales and forecast of cakes and pies baked in stores
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
- Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies grow most over last five years
- Sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, at current prices, 2009-19
- Shelf-stable cakes and pies grow 33% from 2009-14
- Sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes and pies
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies dip
- Sales and forecast of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
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- Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Strong growth in non-supermarket channels
- Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Supermarket channel sales growth flattens
- Supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies
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- Figure 21: US supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-14
- Steady sales increases across other retail channels
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- Figure 22: Big Lots Mostess- #thriftisback Video, 2014
- Other retail channel sales of prepared cakes and pies
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- Figure 23: US sales of prepared cakes and pies, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- All top five brands increase sales
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- Figure 24: Little Debbie Cosmic Cupcakes Launch Video, 2014
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- Figure 25: Little Debbie website, 2014
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- Figure 26: Tastykake Facebook Post, 2014
- Figure 27: Mrs. Freshley’s New packaging, 2013
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- Figure 28: Hostess website, 2014
- Manufacturer sales of market
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Brand Share – Shelf-Stable Cupcakes and Brownies
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- Key points
- McKee Foods represents nearly one third of segment
- Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Hostess Brands’ brand loyalty takes a hit
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- Figure 31: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Shelf-Stable Cakes and Pies
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- Key points
- Private label products dominate
- Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Strong brand loyalty for private label pie brands
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- Figure 33: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Cakes and Pies
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- Key points
- Schwan’s, ConAgra represent more than half of segment sales
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- Figure 34: Edwards frozen desserts website, May 2014
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- Figure 35: Mrs. Smith’s Facebook Post, 2014
- Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
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- Figure 36: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Slight drop in households buying frozen pies
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- Figure 37: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Innovations and Innovators
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- New product innovation increases nearly 18% from 2009-14
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- Figure 38: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by type, March 2009-14
- Seasonal, gluten-free grow more than all other claims
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- Figure 39: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by top 10 claims, March 2009-14
- Chocolate remains top flavor
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- Figure 40: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by top 10 flavors, March 2009-14
- Hybrid formats and flavors enter retail
- Big flavors, small size
- Gourmet, high-quality ingredients
Household and Personal Consumption
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- Key points
- Women more likely to eat cakes and pies made from scratch, mixes
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- Figure 41: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
- 18-44s eating more RTE cakes and pies
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- Figure 42: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
- Households with children more likely to bake and eat cakes and pies
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- Figure 43: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Consumption Occasions
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- Key points
- Men likely to eat prepared cakes and pies as part of, or in place of, a meal
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- Figure 44: Consumption occasions, by gender, April 2014
- Nearly two in five 25-34s eat cakes and pies as a meal replacement
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- Figure 45: Consumption occasions, by age, April 2014
Influential Factors
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- Key points
- Format, promotions most influential on purchase
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- Figure 46: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
Behaviors Related to Prepared Cakes and/or Pies
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- Key points
- Cakes and pies viewed as an indulgence
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- Figure 47: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender and age, April 2014
- Consumers eating more shelf-stable pies, refrigerated/frozen cakes
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- Figure 48: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by prepared cakes and/or pies eaten, April 2014
Important Characteristics
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- Key points
- Nutrition most important when buying in-store baked cakes and pies
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- Figure 49: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
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- Figure 50: Snack cakes consumption by type, October 2007-December 2013
Attitudes toward Prepared Cakes and/or Pies
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- Key points
- Strong positive perceptions of prepared cakes and pies
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- Figure 51: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics most likely to eat RTE cakes and pies
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- Figure 52: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
- Figure 53: Repertoire of personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
- Hispanics most impacted by format, ethnic flavors
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- Figure 54: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
- Ingredient and flavor improvement needed
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- Figure 55: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 56: Consumption occasions, by gender, April 2014
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- Figure 57: Snack cakes consumption, October 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 58: Snack cakes consumption, December 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 59: Snack cakes or pies consumption, October 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 60: Consumption occasions, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
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- Figure 61: Consumption occasions, by personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
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- Figure 62: Frozen cakes and pies consumption by type, October 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 63: Frequency of snack cake/pie consumption in last month, October 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 64: Influence on snack cake brands purchased, December 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 65: Frequency of favorite snack cakes/pies in house, October 2007-December 2013
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- Figure 66: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
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- Figure 67: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
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- Figure 68: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
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- Figure 69: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Cakes and pies baked in stores, by age, April 2014
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- Figure 70: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by age, April 2014
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- Figure 71: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – shelf-stable cakes and pies, by age, April 2014
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- Figure 72: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by age, April 2014
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- Figure 73: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Cakes and pies baked in stores, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
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- Figure 74: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
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- Figure 75: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – shelf-stable cakes and pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
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- Figure 76: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
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- Figure 77: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
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- Figure 78: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by prepared cakes and/or pies eaten, April 2014
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Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
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