Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The future
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Horsemeat scare hits ready meals in 2013
- Operators look to premiumisation
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Own-label holds the lead in ready meals
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value, 2014*
- NPD looks to world flavours and low/no/reduced sodium variants
- Heinz leads adspend, despite reducing support in 2013
- The consumer
- 88% of UK adults eat prepared meals
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- Figure 3: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
- More than a quarter are buying fewer prepared meals
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- Figure 4: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, March 2014
- Ready meals are the most widely seen as convenient
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- Figure 5: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
- Variety of pizza bases would appeal to a third of prepared meal buyers
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- Figure 6: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, March 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Emphasising involvement in the cooking process could help to mitigate the scratch cooking threat
- The facts
- The implications
- Consumer interest in new cuisines poses an opportunity for flavour innovation
- The facts
- The implications
- Rising incomes will create scope for encouraging trading up
- The facts
- The implications
- Promoting vegetable content in prepared meals could improve health image
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Many Mes
- Trend: Survival Skills
- Mintel futures: Brand Intervention
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Cooking from scratch continues to appeal
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- Figure 7: Selected cooking and eating habits, March 2012-February 2014
- Prepared meals look to encourage trading up as spending and confidence rise
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- Figure 8: GfK NOP consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2008-March 2014
- Winter temperatures jump in 2013/14
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- Figure 9: Mean winter* temperatures, UK, 2008/09-2013/14
- Demographic changes create opportunities for prepared meals
- Rise in 25-34s bodes well for the market
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- Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-13 and 2013-18
- That ABs account for one in four adults should continue to benefit chilled formats
- Ready meals should benefit from predicted rise in one-person households
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Prepared meals such as ready meals dominate NPD, although all manufacturers cut back in 2013
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- Figure 11: New product launches in the prepared meals market, by sub-category, 2010-14
- NPD looks to cater to more adventurous tastes
- World cuisines such as Brazilian provide inspiration for NPD
- Operators look to premiumisation to add value
- Ready meals
- Pizza
- Alternative pizza bases would appeal to a third of prepared meal buyers
- Soup
- Pies
- Manufacturers look towards healthier NPD
- Low/no/reduced sodium versions become more popular
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- Figure 12: Index of new product launches across the prepared meals sector, by selected health claims, 2010-13
- Skinny soups
- Naturalness is also a driver
- Pizza manufacturers look to address health concerns
- Ready meals manufacturers look to added veg content as a way to help consumers
- Extending the soup season
- Gazpacho offers an opportunity to deseasonalise soup
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- 2013 sees a slight decline in overall value sales
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, 2008-18
- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of prepared meals, by segment, 2008-18
- Forecast
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- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2008-18
- Methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Ready meals
- Chilled ready meals dominate
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- Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of ready meals and ready-to-cook foods, by category, 2011-13
- Horsemeat scare has a negative effect on frozen ready meals
- Ready-to-cook foods see a decline in sales
- Pizza
- Chilled pizza leads by value, frozen by volume
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- Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, by sector, 2011-13
- Soup
- Wet soup accounts for more than 80% of the market
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- Figure 18: UK retail value sales of soup, by sector, 2011-13
- Pies and pasties
- Hot pies lead the segment by value sales, despite a drop in 2013
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of pies and pasties, by type, 2011-13
Market Share
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- Key points
- Ready meals
- Own-label accounts for more than 90% of chilled ready meal market
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- Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Brands fail to see growth
- Smaller brands see mixed fortunes
- Few players manage growth in frozen ready meals
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen ready meals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Limited branded presence within ready-to-cook foods
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- Figure 22: Sales and shares in the UK ready-to-cook chilled meals market, by own-label and brands, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Pizza
- Chicago Town and Goodfella’s lead frozen pizza market, while seeing mixed fortunes
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- Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Soup
- Heinz retains its lead, despite falling sales
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK soup market, by value, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Pies and pasties
- Own-label dominates chilled pies and pasties
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled pies and pasties, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Companies and Products
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- Private label
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- Figure 26: Own-label ready meal sub-brands, by top grocery retailers, 2013/14
- Asda
- Marks & Spencer (M&S)
- Morrisons
- Sainsbury’s
- Tesco
- Waitrose
- Branded ready meals
- Heinz (Weight Watchers)
- Product range and innovation
- Promotion and advertising
- Birds Eye
- Product range and innovation
- Pizza
- Dr. Oetker (Chicago Town and Dr. Oetker)
- Product range and innovation
- Promotion and advertising
- 2 Sisters Food Group (Goodfella’s, San Marco)
- Product line and innovation
- Promotion and advertising
- Soup
- Heinz
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Promotion and advertising
- New Covent Garden
- Product line and innovation
- Pies and pasties
- Ginsters
- Product line and innovation
- Promotion and advertising
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend continues to fall since 2011
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- Figure 27: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals, pizza, soup and pies and pasties categories, 2010-14
- Ready meals dominate adspend
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- Figure 28: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK prepared meals, pizza, soup and pies and pasties categories, 2010-14
- Pizza holds a 17% share
- Heinz leads adspend but cuts back in 2013
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- Figure 29: Total media advertising expenditure on prepared meals, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2013), 2010-14
- Dr. Oetker focuses on TV
- Retailers increase investment
- General Mills reduces spend
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarkets account for 60p in every £1 spent on prepared meals
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- Figure 30: Estimated consumer spending on prepared meals, by type of retailer, 2013
The Consumer – Usage of Prepared Meals
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- Key points
- Some 88% of UK adults eat prepared meals
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- Figure 31: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
- Frozen pizza proves popular among nearly 50%
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- Figure 32: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
- Just over half eat ready meals
- Usage of soup products varies by age
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- Figure 33: Types of soup eaten, by age, March 2014
- Chilled formats attract an affluent user base
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- Figure 34: Types of prepared meals eaten, by socio-economic group and household income, March 2014
- Opportunities to use products of detailed origin as an ingredient
- Frequency of usage
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- Figure 35: Frequency of eating prepared meals, March 2014
- Three in 10 eat pizza, soup and ready meals
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- Figure 36: Crossover in types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
- A fifth eat more than six types of prepared meals
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- Figure 37: Repertoire of types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
The Consumer – Buying Habits of Prepared Meals
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- Key points
- More than seven in 10 buy prepared meals
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- Figure 38: Purchasing of prepared meals, March 2014
- Over a quarter are buying fewer prepared meals, while 15% are buying more
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- Figure 39: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, March 2014
- A reduction in scratch cooking and improvements to quality cause a third to buy more
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- Figure 40: Reasons for buying more prepared meals, March 2014
- Seven in 10 are buying fewer prepared meals as they are cooking from scratch more often
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- Figure 41: Reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, March 2014
The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Prepared Meals
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- Key points
- Ready meals are seen most widely as convenient
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- Figure 42: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 43: Qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 44: Associations of prepared meals with ‘convenient’, by age, March 2014
- More than two in five see ready meals as processed
- Soup has the healthiest profile
- Almost three in 10 see pizza as good for sharing
- Methodology
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Prepared Meals
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- Key points
- Variety of pizza bases would appeal to a third of prepared meal buyers
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- Figure 45: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, March 2014
- Added veg proposition could help to improve health perceptions
- Expanding availability of low-salt/fat ready meals would appeal to almost three in 10
- Opportunities for emerging cuisines
- Soup kits would appeal to the young
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 46: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, February 2009 and March 2014
- Figure 47: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2013 prices, 2008-18
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- Figure 48: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2008-18
- Figure 49: UK households, by size, 2008-18
- Figure 50: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2008-18
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Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 51: Share of new product launches within the UK prepared meals market, by claim, 2010-14
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of prepared meals, by value, 2013-18
- Chilled ready meals
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- Figure 53: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled ready meals, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of chilled ready meals, by value, 2013-18
- Frozen ready meals
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- Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen ready meals, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of frozen ready meals, by value, 2013-18
- Ready to cook foods
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- Figure 57: Forecast of UK retail sales of ready to cook foods, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of ready to cook foods, by value, 2013-18
- Pizza
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- Figure 59: Forecast of UK retail sales of pizza, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of pizza, by value, 2013-18
- Soup
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- Figure 61: Forecast of UK retail sales of soup, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of soup, by value, 2013-18
- Pies and pasties
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- Figure 63: Forecast of UK retail sales of pies and pasties, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of pies and pasties, by value, 2013-18
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Prepared Meals
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- Figure 65: Types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
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- Figure 66: Most popular types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 67: Next most popular types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 68: Other types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
- Frequency of usage
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- Figure 69: Frequency of eating prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 70: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Ready meal stored at room temperature, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 71: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Chilled ready meal, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 72: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Frozen ready meal, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 73: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Dry packet soup, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 74: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Ready-to-cook foods, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 75: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Chilled soup, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 76: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Soup stored at room temperature, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 77: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Chilled pizza, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 78: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Pastry-based pies and pasties, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 79: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Frozen pizza, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 80: Frequency of eating prepared meals – Meal kits stored at room temperature, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 81: Usage of ready meals, soup and pizza, by demographics, March 2014
- Repertoire
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- Figure 82: Repertoire of types of prepared meals eaten, March 2014
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- Figure 83: Repertoire of types of prepared meals eaten, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Buying Habits of Prepared Meals
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- Figure 84: Purchasing of prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 85: Purchasing of prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 86: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, March 2014
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- Figure 87: Changes in purchase patterns of prepared meals over the last six months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 88: Reasons for buying more prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 89: Reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 90: Most popular reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 91: Next most popular reasons for buying fewer prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Prepared Meals
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- Figure 92: Qualities associated with prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 93: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Ready meals, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 94: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Ready meals, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 95: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Soup, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 96: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Soup, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 97: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pizza, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 98: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pizza, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 99: Most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pastry-based pies and pasties, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 100: Next most popular qualities associated with prepared meals – Pastry-based pies and pasties, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 101: Words associated with prepared meals, by purchasing of prepared meals, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Prepared Meals
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- Figure 102: Agreement with statements on prepared meals, March 2014
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- Figure 103: Most popular statements on prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 104: Next most popular statements on prepared meals, by demographics, March 2014
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