Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Online grocery sales (incl. VAT), 2008-18
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- Figure 2: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales and grocery retailers’ sector sales, 2008-18
- Figure 3: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales versus the % of respondents saying they do all/all or most of their grocery shopping online, 2011-13
- Companies, brands and innovations
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- Figure 4: Leading online grocers’ shares of online grocery sales, 2012 and 2013
- Sales growth 2013
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- Figure 5: Leading retailers: Estimated growth in online grocery sales, 2013
- The consumer
- Who shops for groceries online
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- Figure 6: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
- Where they shop online
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- Figure 7: The consumer: Retailers used for the majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online: selected major retailers, December 2013
- Non-grocery shopping and impulse buys online
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- Figure 8: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: impulse buys, December 2013
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- Figure 9: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: non-grocery shopping, December 2013
- Why they shop online
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- Figure 10: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, December 2013
- What would encourage them to shop online
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- Figure 11: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, December 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Why is per-shopper value less online?
- The facts
- The implications
- So how should supermarkets be pushing the online channel?
- The facts
- The implications
- So how can stores and online be integrated?
- The facts
- The implications
- How big will online get?
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Prepare for the Worst
- Trend: FSTR HYPR
- Mintel futures: Old Gold
Market Environment
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- Key points
- Broadband connections
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- Figure 12: Percentage of all UK households having a broadband internet connection, total and by selected household type, 2013
- Shopping and selling by device
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- Figure 13: The consumer: Percentage shopping or selling online in past three months, by device, September 2013
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- Figure 14: The consumer: Percentage of tablet owners and smartphone owners shopping online via tablets/smartphones in the past three months, September 2013
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 15: UK: Consumer confidence levels, February 2013-January 2014
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- Figure 16: Retail prices index and average weekly earnings: Annual % change, June 2010-December 2013
- Figure 17: UK: Consumer prices index: Annual % change, January 2013-January 2014
Consumer Spending on Key Categories
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- Key points
- Food, drink and tobacco
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- Figure 18: UK: Breakdown of spending on food, beverages and tobacco, 2013
- Figure 19: UK: Consumer spending on in-home food, beverages and tobacco (incl. VAT), 2009-14
- Non-food FMCGs
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- Figure 20: UK: Consumer spending on personal care, household and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products (incl. VAT), 2009-14
- Total potential market
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- Figure 21: UK: Estimated online grocery retail sales as proportion of spending on in-home food, beverages, tobacco and FMCGs, 2009-14
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Growth slowed in 2013, may gain from Morrisons in 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 22: Online grocery sales (incl. VAT), 2008-18
- The impact of Morrisons
- Online still less than 5% of the food retail sector
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- Figure 23: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales and grocery retailers’ sector sales, 2008-18
- Gap between shopper numbers and online sales widens
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- Figure 24: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales versus the % of respondents saying they do all/all or most of their grocery shopping online, 2011-13
- Looking out to 2018
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- Figure 25: Online grocery sales (incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18
- Segments
- Segment size and forecast: major online grocers
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- Figure 26: Online grocery sales, by major online grocers (incl. VAT), 2008-18
- Just 4% of grocers’ sector sales are online
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- Figure 27: Online grocery sales by major online grocers as % of all grocers' sector sales, 2008-18
- Figure 28: Online grocery sales by major online grocers (incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18
- Segment size and forecast: specialist online retailers
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- Figure 29: Online grocery sales by small or specialist online grocery retailers (incl. VAT), 2008-18
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- Figure 30: Online grocery sales by small or specialist online grocery retailers (incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18
- Mintel’s forecast methodology
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
The Consumer – Profiling Online Grocers’ Shoppers
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- Key points
- By gender: Men over-represented online
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- Figure 31: The consumer: customer profiles of leading retailers, online and in-store, by gender, December 2013
- By age group: Online shoppers more likely to be younger
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- Figure 32: The consumer: customer profiles of leading retailers, online and in-store, by age, December 2013
- By socio-economic group: more affluent online
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- Figure 33: The consumer: customer profiles of leading retailers, online and in-store, by socio-economic group, December 2013
- By region: Tesco is closest to the average
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- Figure 34: The consumer: customer profiles of leading retailers, online and in-store, by region, December 2013
The Consumer – Who is Shopping for Groceries Online?
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- Key points
- What we asked
- Nearly half of consumers now buy groceries online
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- Figure 35: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
- Participation jumps in 2013
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- Figure 36: The consumer: Proportion saying they do most or all of their grocery shopping online, 2011-13
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- Figure 37: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, November 2012 and December 2013
- Frequency of shopping by retailer used
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- Figure 38: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
- By demographics: participation peaks among 25-34s and Londoners
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- Figure 39: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, by average age and affluence, December 2013
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- Figure 40: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 41: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, by region, December 2013
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- Figure 42: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, by presence of children in household, December 2013
The Consumer – Where They Shop Online
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- Key points
- What we asked
- Tesco and Asda show strongest online shopper numbers
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- Figure 43: The consumer: Retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online: selected major retailers, December 2013
- Comparing 2012 and 2013
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- Figure 44: The consumer: Retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, online: selected major retailers, November 2012 and December 2013
- Comparing online’s contribution to shopper numbers and contribution to sales
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- Figure 45: Online shopper numbers as % of total shopper numbers, and online grocery sales as % of total UK company sales, selected retailers, December 2013
- Online shoppers are much younger
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- Figure 46: The consumer: Retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online: selected major retailers, by average age and affluence, December 2013
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- Figure 47: The consumer: Retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online: selected major retailers, by age, December 2013
- Prospects for Morrisons
The Consumer – Non-Grocery Shopping and Impulse Buys Online
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- Key points
- What we asked
- Consumers overlook non-grocery items when shopping online…
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- Figure 48: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: non-grocery shopping, December 2013
- …and fewer consumers make impulse purchases when shopping online
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- Figure 49: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: impulse buys, December 2013
- Helping to explain the shopper/value gap
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- Figure 50: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales versus the % of respondents saying they do all/all or most of their grocery shopping online, 2011-13
- Demographics: older shoppers more disciplined
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- Figure 51: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: non-grocery shopping and impulse buys, by age, December 2013
The Consumer – Why They Shop Online
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- Key points
- What we asked
- Saving effort, time, money are most important
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- Figure 52: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, December 2013
- Most frequent shoppers are most demanding
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- Figure 53: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by frequency of shopping for groceries online, December 2013
- Demographics: older shoppers look to save time and effort
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- Figure 54: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by average age and affluence, December 2013
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- Figure 55: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, most popular reasons, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 56: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, most popular reasons, by gender, December 2013
- By retailer used: Tesco shoppers appreciate convenience
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- Figure 57: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, most popular reasons, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping whether in-store and online, December 2013
- Focus group confirms convenience and budgeting are important
The Consumer – What Would Encourage Them to Shop Online
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- Key points
- What we asked
- Charges and delivery barriers remain
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- Figure 58: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, December 2013
- By retailer used: Strong demand for Morrisons online
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- Figure 59: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, selected options, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
- Demographics: Young want more information, older want value
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- Figure 60: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by average age and affluence, December 2013
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- Figure 61: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by age, December 2013
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- Figure 62: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by presence of children in household, December 2013
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Foodie.fm partners with The Southern Co-operative
- Professional shoppers to do your grocery shopping
- Spanish start-up helping online grocery shoppers save time and money
- Smart fridge that generates its own grocery shopping list
- Amazon Add-on
- Walmart bolsters its online grocery credentials
- One-hour grocery delivery service
- ‘MyStore’
- Live availability stock tool
- ‘E-couching’
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Leading grocery retailers’ adspend
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- Figure 63: Main media advertising spend, by the UK’s leading grocery retailers (incl. online supermarkets), 2010-13
- Online shopping/delivery/home delivery brand spend
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- Figure 64: Selected UK grocery retailers’ (incl. online supermarkets) advertising spend on online shopping/delivery/home delivery brand, 2010-13
- Media used
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- Figure 65: Main media advertising spend by the UK’s leading grocery retailers (incl. online supermarkets), by media type, 2012 and 2013
- Figure 66: Selected UK grocery retailers’ (incl. online supermarkets) advertising spend on online shopping/delivery/home delivery brand, by media type, 2012 and 2013
- What we’ve seen in 2014
- Morrisons debuts campaign for online grocery launch
- Sainsbury’s thrifty budget shopper campaign
Leading Retailers and Market Shares
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- Key points
- Market shares
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- Figure 67: Leading online grocery retailers’ market shares, 2011-13
- Online revenues
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- Figure 68: Leading online grocery retailers’ net internet revenues, 2011-13
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- Figure 69: Leading online grocery retailers’ estimated total online revenues, by grocery and non-grocery, 2012 and 2013
- Proportion of sales online
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- Figure 70: Leading online grocery retailers’ online sales as % of their total UK sales, 2012 and 2013
- Smaller online retailers
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- Figure 71: Smaller online grocery retailers’ estimated market shares, 2010-12
- Coverage and fulfilment
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- Figure 72: Coverage: selected leading online grocers, February/March 2014
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- Figure 73: Fulfilment: dot.com-only fulfilment centres, February 2014
- Most popular sites by visitor numbers
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- Figure 74: Leading food retail websites, ranked by total unique visitors, January 2014
Amazon
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 75: Amazon Europe: Group sales performance, excl. sales tax, 2009-13
- Retail offering
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- Figure 76: Number of products listed in Grocery on amazon.co.uk, by sub-category, February 2014
Asda Group Ltd
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 78: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2009-13
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- Figure 79: Asda Group Ltd: Estimated online grocery revenues, 2011-13
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- Figure 80: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2009-12
- Retail offering
J Sainsbury
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 81: J Sainsbury: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
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- Figure 82: J Sainsbury: Estimated online grocery revenues, 2011/12-2013/14
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- Figure 83: J Sainsbury: Outlet data, 2009/10-2012/13
- Retail offering
Ocado Ltd
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- What we think
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- Figure 84: Ocado.com and waitrose.com: Composition of visitors, by socio-economic group, January 2014
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 85: Ocado Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
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- Figure 86: Ocado Ltd: Key customer metrics, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
The Co-operative Food
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 87: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2013/14
- Figure 88: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2008/09-2013/14
- Retail offering
Tesco
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- What we think
- Company background (UK)
- Company performance
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- Figure 89: Tesco UK: Sales growth, 2013/14
- Figure 90: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2013/14
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- Figure 91: Tesco UK: Estimated online grocery revenues, 2011-13
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- Figure 92: Tesco UK: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
- Retail offering
Waitrose Ltd
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- What we think
- Succeeding through investment
- Online capacity help drive sales
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 94: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
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- Figure 95: Waitrose Ltd: Estimated online grocery revenues, 2011/12-2013/14
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- Figure 96: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
- Retail offering
Wm Morrison Group
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 97: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
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- Figure 98: Morrisons: Outlet data, 2009/10 -2013/4
- Retail offering
Appendix – The Consumer – Who Shops for Groceries Online
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- Figure 99: Usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 100: Most popular usage of online grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 101: Next most popular usage of online grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Where They Shop Online
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- Figure 102: Retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
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- Figure 103: Usage of online grocery shopping, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
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- Figure 104: Usage of online grocery shopping, by retailers used for majority of in-store grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 105: Usage of online grocery shopping, by Retailers used for majority of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 106: Most popular retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 107: Next most popular retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 108: Most popular retailers used for majority of in-store grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 109: Next most popular retailers used for majority of in-store grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 110: Most popular retailers used for majority of online grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 111: Next most popular retailers used for majority of online grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Non-Grocery Shopping and Impulse Buys Online
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- Figure 112: Attitudes and behaviour, December 2013
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- Figure 113: Attitudes and behaviour, by usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 114: Attitudes and behaviour, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
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- Figure 115: Attitudes and behaviour, by retailers used for majority of in-store grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 116: Attitudes and behaviour, by retailers used for majority of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 117: Most popular attitudes and behaviour, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 118: Next most popular attitudes and behaviour, by demographics, December 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Why They Shop Online
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- Figure 119: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, December 2013
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- Figure 120: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by Usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 121: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
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- Figure 122: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by retailers used for majority of in-store grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 123: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by retailers used for majority of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 124: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by most popular what would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, December 2013
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- Figure 125: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by next most popular what would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, December 2013
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- Figure 126: Most popular reasons for shopping for groceries online, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 127: Next most popular reasons for shopping for groceries online, by demographics, December 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – What Would Encourage Them To Shop Online
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- Figure 128: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, December 2013
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- Figure 129: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by most popular usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 130: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by next most popular usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 131: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online, December 2013
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- Figure 132: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by retailers used for majority of in-store grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 133: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by retailers used for majority of online grocery shopping, December 2013
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- Figure 134: Most popular what would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by demographics, December 2013
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- Figure 135: Next most popular what would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, by demographics, December 2013
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