Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery sectors, 2011-13
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Wheat prices remain high
- Bread’s health credentials under scrutiny
- Changing consumer lifestyles have been impacting the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Warburtons remains market leader in 2012/13
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- Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2012/13*
- Own-label drives NPD activity in 2012, however brands have fought back in 2013
- The consumer
- Bread enjoys almost universal appeal
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- Figure 4: Types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
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- Figure 5: Types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
- Eating occasions beyond lunch and breakfast remain niche
- Freshness is the single most important choice factor for bread shoppers
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- Figure 6: Factors considered when buying bread and baked goods, June 2013
- Variety and health are key concerns for bread and baked goods users
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- Figure 7: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, June 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What measures can be taken to address the health myths about bread?
- What opportunities are there to justify a premium positioning?
- How can manufacturers mine variety to maintain users’ engagement with the market?
- How can sweet baked goods leverage their snacking associations better?
Trend Application
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- Trend: The Big Issue
- Trend: Many Mes
- Mintel Futures: Human
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Low consumer sentiment has little impact on the market
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- Figure 8: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2007-June 2013
- Soaring wheat prices continue to put pressure on the market
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- Figure 9: Monthly index of producer prices of breadmaking wheat in the UK, January 2009-March 2013
- Demographic changes represent both opportunities and threats
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- Figure 10: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-18
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- Figure 11: UK households, by size, 2008-18
- Bread’s health credentials under scrutiny
- Bread suffers from an adverse health image among consumers
- Bread under fire for high salt levels and reportedly misleading wholemeal claims
- Rising awareness of food allergies/intolerances benefits free-from segment
- Increasingly busy consumer lifestyles have been impacting the market
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Own-label accounts for almost two thirds of new launches in 2012
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- Figure 12: New product development in the UK bread market, branded vs own-label, 2009-13
- Morrisons leads NPD activity focusing on health, with Tesco being hot on its heels with speciality bread
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- Figure 13: New product launches in the UK bread market, by top 10 companies, 2009-13
- Breakfast occasion and sandwich alternatives hold leading brands’ attention
- Increased focus on smaller-sized packs and mini-formats
- Ethical packaging claims on the rise
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- Figure 14: New product launches in the UK bread market, by top 20 claims, 2009-13
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- 2013 value growth ahead of 2012
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- Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2008-18
- Forecast
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2008-18
- Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Sweet baked goods and speciality bread enjoy the strongest growth in 2013
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- Figure 18: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery sectors, 2011-13
- Pre-packed bread loses share to sweet baked goods
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- Figure 19: UK retail volume sales of pre-packed bread, 2008-13
- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of pre-packed bread, by type, 2011-13
- Sweet baked goods segment is the star performer in 2013
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- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of sweet baked goods, by type, 2011-13
- Speciality bread also outperforms the overall market
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- Figure 22: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2011-13
- In-store bakeries benefit from consumers’ demand for freshness and variety
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- Figure 23: Retail value sales of in-store bakeries’ bread and baked goods, 2011-13
Market Share
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- Key points
- Top three manufacturers account for majority of sales
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- Figure 24: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2012/13*
- Warburtons increased its share across all three segments in 2012/13
- Has Hovis missed the boat on sandwich alternatives?
- Kingsmill suffers from intense competition
- Health-focused brands fare well
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- Figure 25: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
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- Figure 26: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls market, by value, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- Figure 27: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods market, by value, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Companies and Products
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- Allied Bakeries
- Background
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Brace's Bakery
- Background
- Product range
- Recent activity and promotion
- Aryzta
- Background
- Product range
- Recent activity and promotion
- Greggs
- Background
- Product range
- Recent activity and promotion
- McCambridge Group
- Background
- Product range
- Recent activity and promotion
- Premier Foods
- Background
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity
- Promotion
- Warburtons
- Background
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend increased by 5% in 2012
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- Figure 28: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2009-13*
- Allied Bakeries continued to lead adspend in 2012
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- Figure 29: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 advertisers, 2009-13*
- Brands look to increase consumer engagement on social media
- TV continued to be preferred medium for bread manufacturers in 2012
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- Figure 30: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by media type, 2009-13*
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarket giants benefit from success of in-store bakeries
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- Figure 31: Retail distribution of bread and baked goods, 2009-12
- In-store bakeries’ success takes its toll on craft bakeries
Consumer – Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods
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- Key points
- Bread enjoys almost universal appeal
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- Figure 32: Types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
- Eight in ten adults buy baked goods
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- Figure 33: Types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
- Repertoires increase with income and household size
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- Figure 34: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
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- Figure 35: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
- Packaged sliced bread is eaten most frequently…
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- Figure 36: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods, June 2013
- …while other bread types and baked goods are more of a treat
Consumer – Types of Packaged Bread Bought
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- Key points
- White is by far the most popular packaged bread type
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- Figure 37: Types of packaged bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Consumer – Eating Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods
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- Key points
- Lunch at home is the most popular occasion for eating bread
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- Figure 38: Occasions for typically eating bread, June 2013
- Only half of users eat bread for breakfast during the week
- Baked goods are most commonly eaten as a snack in the afternoon
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- Figure 39: Occasions for typically eating baked goods, June 2013
Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Freshness is the single most important factor for bread shoppers
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- Figure 40: Factors considered when buying bread and baked goods, June 2013
- Younger consumers are more price-conscious
- Technical nutritional information more relevant to younger consumers
Consumer – Attitudes towards Bread and Baked Goods
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- Key points
- Variety packs should help to encourage usage of different types of bread
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- Figure 41: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, June 2013
- Consumers need to be educated better about bread’s health benefits
- Absence of artificial preservatives should be leveraged better as a USP
- Sweet bread could forge a role as a guilt-free treat
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2013-18
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 44: Value sales of the leading manufacturers in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2011/12-12/13
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 45: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 brands, 2009-13*
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Appendix – Consumer – Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods
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- Purchase of bread and baked goods
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- Figure 46: Types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
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- Figure 47: Types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
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- Figure 48: Most popular types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 49: Next most popular types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 50: Other types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 51: Most popular types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 52: Next most popular types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 53: Other types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
- Repertoires of bread bought
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- Figure 54: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
- Figure 55: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
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- Figure 56: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 57: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
- Frequency of eating bread and baked goods
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- Figure 58: Frequency of eating bread/baked goods, June 2013
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- Figure 59: Frequency of eating packaged sliced bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 60: Frequency of eating packaged sliced bread, by demographics, June 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 61: Frequency of eating other types of bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 62: Frequency of eating other types of bread, by demographics, June 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 63: Frequency of eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 64: Frequency of eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013 (continued)
Appendix – Consumer – Types of Packaged Bread Bought
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- Figure 65: Types of packaged sliced bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
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- Figure 66: Most popular types of packaged sliced bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Eating Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods
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- Figure 67: Occasions for eating bread, June 2013
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- Figure 68: Occasions for eating baked goods, June 2013
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- Figure 69: Most popular occasions for eating bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 70: Next most popular occasions for eating bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 71: Most popular occasions for eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 72: Next most popular occasions for eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Figure 73: Factors considered when choosing bread, June 2013
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- Figure 74: Factors considered when choosing baked goods, June 2013
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- Figure 75: Most popular factors considered when choosing bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 76: Next most popular factors considered when choosing bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 77: Other factors considered when choosing bread, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 78: Most popular factors considered when choosing baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 79: Next most popular factors considered when choosing baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 80: Other factors considered when choosing baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Bread and Baked Goods
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- Figure 81: Attitudes towards bread/baked goods, June 2013
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- Figure 82: Agreement with the statement ‘Trying different types of bread appeals to me’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 83: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth paying more for high quality bread’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 84: Agreement with the statement ‘It is easy to get bored with homemade sandwiches’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 85: Agreement with the statement ‘Bread is not a good food option for those trying to lose weight’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 86: Agreement with the statement ‘Other breakfast options are healthier than bread/baked goods’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 87: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying high protein bread’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 88: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying bread/baked goods containing fruit/vegetables’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 89: Agreement with the statement ‘Sliced bread contains too many artificial preservatives’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 90: Agreement with the statement ‘Alternative baked goods are better for you than standard bread’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 91: Agreement with the statement ‘Sweet-flavoured bread is a healthier alternative to other sweet treats’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 92: Agreement with the statement ‘There is not enough time to have bread/baked goods at home in the morning’, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 93: Agreement with the statement ‘Miniature baked goods are more appealing to me than regular baked goods’, by demographics, June 2013
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