Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Forecast
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Busy consumer lifestyles impact breakfast eating habits
- Breakfast cereals in the line of fire from health bodies
- Wheat prices expected to fall
- Demographic changes in favour of the market
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- Figure 2: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-18
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Kellogg’s leads in RTE cereals, while PepsiCo/Quaker Oats dominates hot cereals
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- Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2012/13*
- Figure 4: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value, 2012/13*
- Hot cereals continue to gain share of total NPD
- Adspend drops sharply in 2012
- The consumer
- Nine in ten people eat RTE cereals, while only one in two eat porridge
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- Figure 5: Types of breakfast cereals eaten in the last six months, June 2013
- Eating occasions beyond breakfast remain niche
- Satiety, energy provision and natural ingredients most important factors
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- Figure 6: Factors taken into consideration when buying breakfast cereals, June 2013
- Majority of cereal shoppers are habitual shoppers
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2013
- Trust in cereals’ health benefits is strikingly low
- Families want cereal boxes that are more convenient to store
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- Figure 8: Breakfast cereals that users report being interested in, June 2013
- One in three users are keen on high-protein cereals
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can the RTE cereal market drive usage beyond the traditional breakfast occasion?
- Do manufacturers need to further increase their efforts to improve the market’s health image?
- Is there scope for using natural sweeteners in breakfast cereals?
- What measures can be taken to attract more young people to the porridge market?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Snack Society
- Trend: Sense of the Intense
- Mintel Futures: Old Gold
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Increasingly busy consumer lifestyles have been impacting the market
- Breakfast cereals remain under fire from health bodies
- Pressure from soaring grain prices expected to ease
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- Figure 9: Weekly commodity prices of wheat and oats, England and Wales, January 2010-May 2013
- Demographic changes likely to benefit the market
- Ageing population should bode well for hot cereals
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- Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-18
- Rising number of children should benefit the RTE cereals market
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Hot cereals continue to gain share of total NPD
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- Figure 11: New product development in the UK cereals market, by category, 2009-13
- Brands strike back in terms of NPD
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- Figure 12: New product development in the UK cereals market, branded vs private label, 2009-13
- Kellogg’s drives innovation
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- Figure 13: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top ten companies, 2010-13
- Weetabix and Jordans also upped their NPD activities in 2012
- Tesco was most active own-label innovator
- Chocolate and strawberry flavours on the rise
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- Figure 14: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top ten flavours, 2010-13
- High-fibre claims become more popular
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- Figure 15: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 15 claims, 2009-13
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Value sales rise, however, volumes continue to decline in 2013
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- Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
- Forecast
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- Figure 17: UK Retail value sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
- Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Fourth consecutive year of declining volume sales for RTE cereals
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of RTE cereals, 2008-18
- Hot cereals continue their strong performance
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of hot cereals, 2008-18
Market Share
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- Key points
- Top three manufacturers hold 70% of the RTE cereals market
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- Figure 21: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2012/13*
- Kellogg’s faces challenging times
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- Figure 22: Leading brands in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- Own-label outpaces growth of RTE cereals segment
- PepsiCo dominates the hot cereals market
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- Figure 23: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value, 2012/13*
- Oat So Simple is the engine behind hot cereals
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- Figure 24: Leading brands in the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- Own-label fails to keep pace with the wider hot cereals segment
Companies and Products
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- Figure 25: Selected leading companies in the breakfast cereals market in the UK and their brands, 2013
- Cereal Partners UK
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Dorset Cereals
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Jordans
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Kellogg’s
- Background
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity and promotion – Special K
- Recent activity and promotion – other brands
- PepsiCo
- Background
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Weetabix
- Background
- Product range
- Innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
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Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 26: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the breakfast cereal sector, June 2013
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 27: Attitudes, by breakfast cereal brand, June 2013
- Brand personality
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- Figure 28: Breakfast cereal brand personality – macro image, June 2013
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- Figure 29: Breakfast cereal brand personality – micro image, June 2013
- Brand experience
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- Figure 30: Breakfast cereal brand usage, June 2013
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- Figure 31: Satisfaction with various breakfast cereal brands, June 2013
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- Figure 32: Consideration of breakfast cereal brands, June 2013
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- Figure 33: Consumer perceptions of current breakfast cereal brand performance, June 2013
- Brand index
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- Figure 34: Breakfast cereal brand index, June 2013
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 35: Target groups, June 2013
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- Figure 36: Breakfast cereal brand usage, by target groups, June 2013
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend drops off in 2012
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- Figure 37: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by segment, 2009-12
- Top spender Kellogg’s halves its expenditure
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- Figure 38: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top ten advertisers, 2009-12*
- TV remains the preferred medium for ATL advertising
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- Figure 39: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by media type, 2009-12*
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarket giants dominate sales
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- Figure 40: Retail distribution of breakfast cereals in the UK, by outlet type, 2010-13
Consumer – Usage of Breakfast Cereals
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- Key points
- RTE breakfast cereals enjoy almost universal appeal
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- Figure 41: Types of breakfast cereals eaten in the last six months, June 2013
- Promising prospects for hot cereals
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- Figure 42: Usage of porridge oats, by agreement with selected statements towards health and healthy lifestyles, June 2013
- Almost half of consumers limit their cereal usage to two types at most
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- Figure 43: Repertoire of consumption of types of breakfast cereals in the last six months, June 2013
- Porridge lags significantly behind RTE cereals in terms of usage frequency
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- Figure 44: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the last six months, June 2013
Consumer – Occasions for Eating Breakfast Cereals
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- Key points
- Driving usage beyond the breakfast occasion is key for RTE cereals
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- Figure 45: Occasions for eating breakfast cereals, by type, June 2013
Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Satiety and energy provision of particular importance to families
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- Figure 46: Factors taken into consideration when buying breakfast cereals, June 2013
- Low sugar is a key concern for parents
- Using superfoods to communicate naturalness and health
Consumer – Users’ Attitudes Towards Breakfast Cereals
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- Key points
- Money-off coupons to encourage trial of new cereals
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2013
- Limited editions in summer flavours may help to drive usage of porridge in warmer weather
- Younger consumers tend to seek more technical nutritional information
- Tapping into the treat occasion appears promising
- Trust in cereals’ health benefits is strikingly low
Consumer – Users’ Interests in Selected Product Attributes
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- Key points
- Smaller boxes could help to facilitate storage of cereals for families
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- Figure 48: Breakfast cereals that users report being interested in, June 2013
- Fortification of porridge sparks interest among one in three users
- Using protein to justify a satiety and energy positioning
Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 49: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top ten brands*, 2010-13
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK breakfast cereals market, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2013-18
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Appendix – Segment Performance
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- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2013-18
- Figure 54: Forecast of UK retail value sales of the RTE breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
- Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of the RTE breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
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- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2013-18
- Figure 58: Forecast of UK retail value sales of the hot breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
- Figure 59: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of the hot breakfast cereals market, 2008-18
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 60: Leading manufacturers in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- Figure 61: Leading manufacturers in the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 62: Brand usage, June 2013
- Figure 63: Brand commitment, June 2013
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- Figure 64: Brand momentum, June 2013
- Figure 65: Brand diversity, June 2013
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- Figure 66: Brand satisfaction, June 2013
- Figure 67: Brand image – macro image, June 2013
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- Figure 68: Brand image – micro image, June 2013
- Figure 69: Profile of target groups, by demographics, June 2013
- Figure 70: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, June 2013
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- Figure 71: Brand usage, by target groups, June 2013
- Brand index
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- Figure 72: Brand index, June 2013
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 73: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top five brands, 2009-12*
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Breakfast Cereals
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- Figure 74: Types of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2013
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- Figure 75: Repertoire for types of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2013
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- Figure 76: Frequency of eating ready-to-eat cereals (excluding porridge/oats), June 2013
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- Figure 77: Frequency of eating porridge/oats, June 2013
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- Figure 78: Most popular types of breakfast cereals eaten, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 79: Next most popular types of breakfast cereals eaten, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 80: Repertoire for types of breakfast cereals eaten, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 81: Frequency of eating ready-to-eat cereals (excluding porridge/oats), by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 82: Frequency of eating porridge/oats, by demographics, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Occasions for Eating Breakfast Cereals
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- Figure 83: Occasions for eating ready-to-eat cereals (excluding porridge/oats), June 2013
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- Figure 84: Occasions for eating porridge/oats, June 2013
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- Figure 85: Occasions for eating ready-to-eat cereals (excluding porridge/oats), by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 86: Occasions for eating porridge/oats, by demographics, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Figure 87: Factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for oneself, June 2013
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- Figure 88: Factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for one’s family, June 2013
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- Figure 89: Most popular factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for oneself, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 90: Next most popular factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for oneself, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 91: Most popular factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for one’s family, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 92: Next most popular factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for one’s family, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 93: Factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for oneself, by most popular types of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2013
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- Figure 94: Factors considered when choosing breakfast cereals for oneself, by next most popular types of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Users’ Attitudes towards Breakfast Cereals
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- Figure 95: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2013
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- Figure 96: Most popular attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 97: Next most popular attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 98: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by most popular types of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2013
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- Figure 99: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by next most popular types of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Users’ Interests in Selected Product Attributes
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- Figure 100: Users’ interests in selected product attributes, June 2013
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- Figure 101: Most popular attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 102: Next most popular attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, June 2013
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