Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Breakfast cereal sales estimated to reach $11.5 billion in 2013
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- Figure 1: Total market sales and fan chart forecast of breakfast cereals, at current prices, 2008-18
- Cold cereal is not so hot
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- Figure 2: Total retail sales of breakfast cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Market factors
- A focus on health drives purchase preferences
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- Figure 3: Interest in breakfast cereal options (Top 5), June 2013
- Changing demographics impacting sales, brand focus
- Retail channels
- Supermarket sales continue to rule the category
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
- Key players
- Offerings from Kellogg, General Mills, and PepsiCo fuel market
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- Figure 5: MULO sales of breakfast cereals, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending May 19, 2013
- The consumer
- Cereal consumption expands beyond the breakfast table
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- Figure 6: Hot and cold cereal occasions, June 2013
- Cross-promotion, organic, key areas for consideration
- Health claims and portability top purchase motivations
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward hot and cold cereal, any agree, June 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What can be done to revitalize the category?
- Insight: Manufacture cereals for occasions beyond breakfast
- How can breakfast cereals capture sales from new demographics?
- Insight: Target adults based on their cereal product preferences
- How can the hot cereal segment continue to warm up the category?
- Insight: Emphasize perceived health benefits
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Transumers
- Trend: extend my brand
- Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Cereal consumption flat due to stale cold cereal segment
- Oatmeal innovation balancing cold cereal segment declines
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 8: Total U.S. MULO sales and forecast of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2008-18
- Figure 9: Total U.S. MULO sales and forecast of breakfast cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 10: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of breakfast cereals, at current prices, 2008-18
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Households with children declining
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- Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
- Cereal category not immune from rising costs
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- Figure 12: Consumer price index for all urban consumers: cereals and bakery products, May 2008-13
- Health concerns motivate food purchases
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Quick, portable options fuel away-from-home breakfast occasions
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- Figure 13: Consumer top five attitudes toward breakfast, October 2012
- Customizable oatmeal options increasing in fast casual segment
- Frozen breakfast foods popular among cereal eaters
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- Figure 14: Household consumption of frozen waffles, pancakes, and French toast by type, by age, January 2012-March 2013
- Figure 15: Household consumption of frozen waffles, pancakes, and French toast by type, by breakfast cereals, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 16: Household consumption of frozen breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by breakfast cereals, January 2012-March 2013
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Hot cereal shows largest growth from 2011-13
- Sales of breakfast cereal, by segment
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- Figure 17: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Segment Performance – Cold Cereal
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- Key points
- Cold cereal sales dip slightly after marginal growth
- Sales of cold cereal
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- Figure 18: Total U.S. retail sales of cold cereal, at current prices, 2008-13
Segment Performance – Hot Cereal
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- Key points
- Oatmeal warms up segment sales
- Sales of hot cereal
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- Figure 19: Total U.S. retail sales of hot cereal, at current prices, 2008-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Sales of market, by channel
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- Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
- Cereals still selling most in supermarkets
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- Figure 21: U.S. Supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2008-13
- Figure 22: U.S. drug store sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2008-13
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- Figure 23: U.S. sales of breakfast cereal through other retail channels, at current prices, 2008-13
Retail Channels – Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Channel sales grow as product innovation continues
- Sales of breakfast cereal in the natural channel
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- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, at current prices, 2011-13*
- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-13*
- Brands of note
- Natural channel sales of breakfast cereal by segment
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- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
- Natural channel sales of breakfast cereal by organic
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- Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, by organic, 2011 and 2013*
- Natural channel sales of breakfast cereal by gluten free
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- Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, by gluten-free, 2011 and 2013*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kellogg and General Mills still rule breakfast cereal
- Other, private label outsell Post
- Manufacturer sales of breakfast cereal
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of breakfast cereals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Cold Cereal
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- Key points
- Nutrient-packed brands remain strongest selling
- Cold cereal’s sweet success
- Manufacturer sales of cold cereal
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of cold breakfast cereals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Hot Cereal
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- Key points
- Growth for Quaker, but increased competition from others
- Manufacturer sales of hot cereal
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of hot breakfast cereals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Innovations and Innovators
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- Cereal manufacturers seek to reinvent existing brands
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- Figure 32: Top 10 breakfast cereal companies, by new products, February 2012-May 2013
- Chocolate makes for an indulgent snack
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- Figure 33: Top 10 Breakfast Cereal Flavor Introductions, February 2012 – May 2013
- Majority of cereal launches include innovative packaging
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- Figure 34: Breakfast cereal launches, by launch type, February 2012-May 2013
- Nutritious ingredients still top of mind for consumers
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- Figure 35: Top 10 breakfast cereal claims, February 2012-May 2013
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Brand analysis: Cheerios (General Mills)
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- Figure 36: Brand analysis of Cheerios, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 37: Cheerios Website, 2013
- TV presence
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- Figure 38: Cheerios, television ad, 2013
- Brand analysis: Lucky Charms (General Mills)
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- Figure 39: Brand analysis of Lucky Charms, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 40: Lucky Charms Twitter Post, 2013
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- Figure 41: Lucky Charms Website, 2013
- TV presence
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- Figure 42: Lucky Charms, television ad, 2013
- Brand analysis: Quaker
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- Figure 43: Brand analysis of Quaker, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 44: Quaker Website, 2013
- TV presence
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- Figure 45: Quaker, television ad, 2013
- Brand analysis: Kashi
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- Figure 46: Brand analysis of Kashi, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 47: Kashi Website, 2013
- TV presence
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- Figure 48: Kashi, television ad, 2013
- Brand analysis: Kellogg’s Corn Flakes (Kellogg Company)
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- Figure 49: Brand analysis of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 50: Kellogg’s Twitter Post, 2013
- Figure 51: Kellogg’s Website, 2013
- TV presence
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- Figure 52: Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, television ad, 2013
- Print and other
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- Figure 53: Kellogg’s print ad, 2013
Social Media – Breakfast Cereal
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- Key points
- Social media metrics
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- Figure 54: Key performance indicators, July 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 55: Brand usage and awareness of breakfast cereal brands, June 2013
- Interaction with breakfast cereal brands
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- Figure 56: Interaction with selected breakfast cereal brands, June 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 57: Online conversations on selected breakfast cereal brands, by day, June 14-July13, 2013
- Where are people talking about breakfast cereal brands?
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- Figure 58: Online conversations on selected breakfast cereal brands, by page type, June 14-July13, 2013
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 59: Types of conversations on selected breakfast cereal brands, June 14-July13, 2013
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- Figure 60: Types of conversations on selected breakfast cereal brands, by day, June 14-July13, 2013
- Analysis by brand
- Cheerios
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- Figure 61: Cheerios—key social media indicators, July 2013
- Key online campaigns
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- Figure 62: Online mentions of GMOs, per month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- What we think
- Cap’n Crunch
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- Figure 63: Cap’n Crunch—key social media indicators, July 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Kellogg’s Corn Flakes
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- Figure 64: Kellogg’s Corn Flakes—key social media indicators, July 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Cinnamon Toast Crunch
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- Figure 65: Cinnamon Toast Crunch—key social media indicators, July 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Cream of Wheat
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- Figure 66: Cream of Wheat—key social media indicators, July 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Kashi
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- Figure 67: Kashi—key social media indicators, July 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
Cereal Consumption by Type and Occasion
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- Key points
- Cold consumption high among Gen X, but spans income spectrum
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- Figure 68: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), by age, January 2012-March 2013
- Figure 69: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), by household income, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 70: Hot and cold cereal user groups, by gender and age, June 2013
- Figure 71: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), by presence of children in household, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 72: Personal consumption of breakfast cereal (cold), by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Figure 73: Personal consumption of cold cereal, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Hot cereal consumption skews older, less affluent
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- Figure 74: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), by age, January 2012-March 2013
- Figure 75: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), by household income, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 76: Personal consumption of breakfast cereal (hot), October 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 77: Personal consumption of hot cereal, October 2007-November 2012
- Figure 78: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), by presence of children in household, January 2012-March 2013
- Cereal occasions expanding beyond breakfast
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- Figure 79: Hot and cold cereal occasions, by age, June 2013
- Figure 80: Purchase of hot and cold cereal, by hot and cold cereal occasions, June 2013
Purchase Habits and Preferences
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- Key points
- Gender and children impact cereal purchases
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- Figure 81: Purchase of hot and cold cereal, by gender, June 2013
- Figure 82: Purchase of hot and cold cereal, by presence of children in household, June 2013
- The hot and cold cereal connection
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- Figure 83: Purchase of hot and cold cereal, by purchase of cold cereal, June 2013
- Figure 84: Purchase of hot cereal, by purchase of cold cereal, June 2013
- Organic: an untapped opportunity
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- Figure 85: Household consumption of organic breakfast cereal, by age, January 2012-March 2013
- Older consumers most cost conscious
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- Figure 86: Hot and cold cereal purchase habits, by generations, June 2013
Attitudes Toward Breakfast Cereals
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- Key points
- Cereals benefit from perception as valuable, versatile
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- Figure 87: Agreement with attitudes toward hot and cold cereal, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 88: Agreement with attitudes toward hot and cold cereal, by age, June 2013
- Fiber, protein top appealing cereal attributes
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- Figure 89: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by age, June 2013
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- Figure 90: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by consumption of hot and cold cereal, June 2013
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- Figure 91: Attitudes/Opinions about food, by age, January 2012-March 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Blacks, Hispanics lead in weekly cold cereal consumption
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- Figure 92: Purchase of hot and cold cereal, by race, June 2013
- Figure 93: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 94: Household consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
- Organic opportunity for Hispanics and blacks
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- Figure 95: Household consumption of organic breakfast cereal, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
- Consumption occasions
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- Figure 96: Hot and cold cereal occasions, by race/ethnic origin, June 2013
- Hispanics least price sensitive
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- Figure 97: Hot and cold cereal purchase habits, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
- Figure 98: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
- Blacks most skeptical of cereal health claims, Hispanics least
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- Figure 99: Agreement with attitudes toward hot and cold cereal, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
CHAID analysis – Breakfast Cereal
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- Methodology
- Younger men driving interest in dessert-flavored cereal
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- Figure 100: Breakfast cereal – CHAID – Tree output, August 2013
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- Figure 101: Interest in breakfast cereal options – CHAID – Table output, June 2013
IRI/Builders – Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Cold cereal
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—cold cereal
- Brand map
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- Figure 102: Brand map, selected brands of cold cereal buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 103: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cold cereal, by household penetration, 2012*
IRI/Builders – Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Hot cereal
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – hot cereal
- Brand map
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- Figure 104: Brand map, selected brands of hot cereal buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 105: Key purchase measures for the top brands of hot cereal, by household penetration, 2012*
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 106: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Unemployment
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- Figure 107: U.S. unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 108: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
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- Figure 109: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
- Food cost pressures
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- Figure 110: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011 through June 25, 2013
- Obesity
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- Figure 111: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
- Childhood and teen obesity—highest in decades
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- Figure 112: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 113: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 114: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
- Shifting U.S. demographics
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- Figure 115: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
- Figure 116: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Appendix – Social Media – Breakfast Cereal
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- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 117: Brand usage or awareness, June 2013
- Figure 118: Cheerios usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 119: Kellogg’s Corn Flakes usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2013
- Figure 120: Kashi usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 121: Cap’n Crunch usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2013
- Figure 122: Cinnamon toast crunch usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2013
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- Figure 123: Cream of wheat usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 124: Household consumption of organic breakfast cereal, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 125: Hot and cold cereal purchase habits, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 126: Hot and cold cereal occasions, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 127: Hot and cold cereal occasions, by household income, June 2013
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- Figure 128: Hot and cold cereal occasions, by generations, June 2013
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- Figure 129: Hot and cold cereal purchase habits, by presence of children in household, June 2013
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- Figure 130: Hot and cold cereal purchase habits, by purchase of hot and cold cereal, June 2013
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- Figure 131: Agreement with attitudes toward hot and cold cereal, by presence of children in household, June 2013
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- Figure 132: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by gender and age, June 2013
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- Figure 133: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by generations, June 2013
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- Figure 134: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by presence of children in household, June 2013
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- Figure 135: Any Interest in breakfast cereal options, by purchase of hot and cold cereal, June 2013
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Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Information resources inc. consumer network metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
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