Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Excluded
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- Forecast
- Market factors
- Carbonates benefit from affordable price positioning
- Consumers increasingly adopt a more balanced approach to their diets
- Demographic changes represent both opportunities and threats
- Proposed tax on sugary drinks draws negative attention to the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Coca-Cola and Pepsi brands continue to dominate the take-home market
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- Figure 2: Shares of leading brands in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2012*
- NPD activity rises and remains dominated by brands
- Adspend drops sharply in 2012
- The consumer
- Penetration stands at almost 90%
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- Figure 3: Usage of carbonated soft drinks in the last six months, March 2013
- CSDs are more popular at home than on the go
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- Figure 4: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2013
- Price and brand drive purchasing decision
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- Figure 5: Factors influencing choice of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
- Energy provision, portability and nutrition spark consumer interest
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- Figure 6: Users’ attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Is there further scope for stevia-based drinks in the market?
- How can the industry engage the ageing population?
- What measures can be taken to boost CSD sales in the on-trade?
- What NPD opportunities are there to maintain the category’s exciting image?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Extend My Brand
- Trend: Make It Mine
- 2015 Trend: Brand Intervention
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Consumer sentiment remains gloomy
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- Figure 7: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, January 2007 to March 2013
- Weather and health concerns dampen demand for CSDs
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- Figure 8: Monthly sunshine and rainfall in the UK, difference from long-term average, 2012
- Demographic changes pose opportunities and challenges to CSDs
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- Figure 9: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
- Ageing population represents threat to the CSD market…
- …however, growth in 25-34s, families and C2s bodes well for the market
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- Figure 10: Forecast of adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
- Carbonated soft drinks continue to compete well on price
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- Figure 11: Prices per litre of selected soft drinks, May 2013
- Proposed tax on sugary drinks draws negative attention to CSD market
- Health or indulgence? It’s all about the right balance
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- CSDs continue to lead the soft drinks universe
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- Figure 12: Performance of selected soft drinks categories in the take-home channel, 2007-12
- The on-trade’s continuous shift away from wet-led formats represents key opportunity for CSDs
- Carbonates continue to fall behind juice in terms of NPD
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- Figure 13: Comparison of new product launches of selected types of soft drinks, 2010-13
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- CSDs’ share of total beverage NPD reaches four-year high
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- Figure 14: Share of carbonated soft drinks of total new product launches in the UK drinks* retail market,
- Brands drive new product activity
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- Figure 15: New product launches within the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by manufacturer, 2012
- Exotic flavours bring fresh breeze to the market
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- Figure 16: New product launches in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by flavour component (top 10),
- Packaging continues to attract investment
- Stevia is slowly finding its way into the carbonated soft drinks market
- All natural claims leap ahead in 2012
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- Figure 17: New product launches within the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by selected claims, 2009-12
- Brands look to sparkling fruit juice to reassure parents
- Low sugar retains a minority role in new launches
- International innovation
- Flavour innovation
- Health-oriented fizzy drinks
- Energy provision
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Volumes of carbonated soft drinks decline for the first time in years
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- Figure 18: UK total value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
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- Figure 19: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- Figure 20: Forecast of total UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- Take-home expected to see growth but margins will be squeezed
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- Figure 21: UK take-home value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- On-premise sales
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- Figure 22: UK on-premise value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Cola accounts for bulk of CSD sales
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- Figure 23: off-trade value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks, by type, 2010-12
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- Figure 24: On-trade value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, by type, 2010-12
- Diet variants continue to gain share in the take-home market
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- Figure 25: take-home value sales of carbonated soft drinks, by standard and diet, 2010-12
Market Share
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- Key points
- Pepsi outpaces market leader Coca-Cola’s growth in the take-home market
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- Figure 26: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2012*
- Coca-Cola retains top position
- PepsiCo gains share on the back of promotions
- Carbonated juices attract attention
- Own-label suffers from brands’ heavy promotional activities
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- Figure 27: Leading brands in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2011-12
- Figure 28: Leading brands in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by volume, 2011-12
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- Figure 29: Top five manufacturers’ value sales in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, 2011-12
- Figure 30: Top five manufacturers’ volume sales in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, 2011-12
Companies and Products
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- Figure 31: Selected leading companies in the UK carbonated soft drinks market and their brands, 2012
- AG Barr Plc
- Company background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Britvic Plc
- Company background
- Product range
- Recent activity and promotion
- Fentimans
- Company background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- Coca-Cola
- Company background
- Product range
- Recent packaging innovation
- Recent flavour innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- PepsiCo
- Company background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
- SHS Drinks
- Company background
- Product range and innovation
- Recent activity and promotion
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Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the carbonated soft drink sector, February 2013
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 33: Attitudes by carbonated soft drink brand, February 2013
- Brand personality
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- Figure 34: Carbonated soft drink brand personality – macro image, February 2013
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- Figure 35: Carbonated soft drink brand personality – micro image, February 2013
- Brand experience
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- Figure 36: Carbonated soft drink brand usage, February 2013
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- Figure 37: Satisfaction with various carbonated soft drink brands, February 2013
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- Figure 38: Consideration of carbonated soft drink brands, February 2013
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- Figure 39: Consumer perceptions of current carbonated soft drink brand performance, February 2013
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- Figure 40: Carbonated soft drink brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, February 2013
- Brand index
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- Figure 41: Carbonated soft drink brand index, February 2013
- Figure 42: Carbonated soft drink brand index vs recommendation, February 2013
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 43: Target groups, February 2013
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- Figure 44: Carbonated soft drink brand usage, by target groups, February 2013
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend drops sharply in 2012
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- Figure 45: Total advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-12
- Leading advertisers notably cut adspend in 2012
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- Figure 46: Advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by top 10 advertisers, 2009-12*
- Advertisers continue to favour TV advertising for above-the-line activity
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- Figure 47: Advertising expenditure in the carbonated soft drinks market, by media type, 2009-12
- Brands look for more engaging marketing approaches
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- The on-trade bounces back…
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- Figure 48: Value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks, by channel, 2010-12
- …and represents notable opportunities for CSDs
- Supermarkets leverage their scale
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- Figure 49: Value and volume sales in the take-home carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by channel, 2010-12
Consumer – Usage of Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Carbonated soft drinks enjoy almost universal usage
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- Figure 50: Usage of carbonated soft drinks in the last six months, March 2013
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- Figure 51: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by age, socio economic group and presence of own children, March 2013
- Premium soft drinks well-placed to find favour with the over-55s
- Right balance between health and fun needed to further exploit children’s market
- At-home consumption dominates the carbonated soft drinks market
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- Figure 52: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2013
Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Price holds slim lead ahead of brand
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- Figure 53: Factors influencing choice of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
- Flavour innovation as a promising source for NPD
- Educating consumers about stevia may help to increase usage of low-calorie carbonates among the over-55s
- Mixability is an important consideration for older consumer groups
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Price Increases of Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Two in five users would cut back on carbonates if prices rose
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- Figure 54: Users’ attitudes towards price increases of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Portability is a key feature of carbonates
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- Figure 55: Users’ attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, march 2013
- Interest in natural sweeteners bodes well for stevia-sweetened CSDs
- Energy provision as a promising area for NPD
- Flavoured water continues to pose competition
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Selected Flavours
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- Key points
- Users’ enthusiasm for variety of flavours bodes well for NPD
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- Figure 56: Users’ interest in flavours of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
- Testing new flavours through limited editions
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- Figure 57: Users’ interest in flavours they have not tried before, March 2013
Consumer – Perceptions of Selected Types of Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Attributes associated with selected types of soft drinks
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- Figure 58: Correspondence analysis, carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 59: Characteristics associated with selected types of soft drinks, March 2013
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by value,
- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by volume,
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- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 63: Forecast of UK take-home sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2007-17
- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 65: Forecast of UK take-home sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2007-17
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- Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 67: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2007-17
- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 69: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2007-17
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 70: Brand usage, February 2013
- Figure 71: Brand commitment, February 2013
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- Figure 72: Brand momentum, February 2013
- Figure 73: Brand diversity, February 2013
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- Figure 74: Brand satisfaction, February 2013
- Figure 75: Brand recommendation, February 2013
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- Figure 76: Brand attitude, February 2013
- Figure 77: Brand image – macro image, February 2013
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- Figure 78: Brand image – micro image, February 2013
- Figure 79: Profile of target groups, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 80: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, February 2013
- Figure 81: Brand usage, by target groups, February 2013
- Brand index
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- Figure 82: Brand index, February 2013
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 83: Advertising expenditure in the carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 brands, 2009-12*
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Figure 84: Types of carbonated soft drinks consumed, March 2013
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- Figure 85: Consumption of standard cola, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 86: Consumption of low or no calorie/diet cola, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 87: Consumption of standard non-cola flavoured carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 88: Consumption of low or no calorie/diet non-cola flavoured carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 89: Consumption of carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 90: Consumption of mixers, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 91: Consumption of other carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 92: Consumption of mixers to be used with alcohol, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 93: Consumers who haven’t drunk carbonated soft drinks in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Figure 94: Choice factors when buying carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 95: Most popular choice factors when buying carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 96: Next most popular choice factors when buying carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 97: Other choice factors when buying carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Price Increases for Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Figure 98: Attitudes towards price increases for carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 99: Attitudes towards price increases for carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Figure 100: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 101: Agreement with the statements ‘Drinks in glass bottles are of higher quality than those in plastic bottles’ and ‘Own-label drinks taste as good as branded varieties’, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see more new, unusual flavours’ and ‘I am interested in buying low-calorie drinks made with natural sweeteners’, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer the taste of diet/light drinks to standard variants’ and ‘Flavoured waters are a healthier alternative to carbonated soft drinks’, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see more carbonated soft drinks with a less sweet taste’ and ‘Carbonated soft drinks are good to have on the move’, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I like the idea of customising the flavour of my drink’ and ‘I would be interested in a carbonated soft drink which gives me an energy boost’, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘330ml can of carbonated soft drink is too much to drink in one go’ and ‘Carbonated soft drinks are suitable for children in moderation’, by demographics, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Selected Flavours
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- Figure 107: Attitudes towards selected flavours of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 108: Attitudes towards ginger beer flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 109: Attitudes towards vanilla flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 110: Attitudes towards tropical fruits flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 111: Attitudes towards elderflower flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 112: Attitudes towards mixed berries flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 113: Attitudes towards lime flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 114: Attitudes towards apple flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 115: Attitudes towards blackcurrant flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 116: Attitudes towards dandelion and burdock flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 117: Attitudes towards cherry flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 118: Attitudes towards green tea flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 119: Attitudes towards grapefruit flavour, by demographics, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Perceptions of Selected Types of Soft Drinks
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- Figure 120: Perceptions of selected types of soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 121: Perceptions of carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 122: Perceptions of carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2013, continued
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- Figure 123: Perceptions of juice drinks, by demographics, march 2013
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- Figure 124: Perceptions of juice drinks, by demographics, march 2013, continued
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- Figure 125: Perceptions of unflavoured bottled water, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 126: Perceptions of unflavoured bottled water, by demographics, March 2013, (continued)
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- Figure 127: Perceptions of flavoured bottled water, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 128: Perceptions of flavoured bottled water, by demographics, March 2013, (continued)
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- Figure 129: Perceptions of squash/cordials, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 130: Perceptions of squash/cordials, by demographics, March 2013, (continued)
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- Figure 131: Perceptions of energy and sports drinks, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 132: Perceptions of energy and sports drinks, by demographics, March 2013, continued
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