Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Methodology
- Food categories
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- Figure 1: Mintel in-home food classifications, 2013
- Figure 2: Mintel soft drinks classifications, 2013
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- Figure 3: Mintel alcoholic drinks classifications, 2013
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 4: Sales of in-home food, 2007-17 (f)
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- Figure 5: Total sales of alcohol, 2007-17 (f)
- Figure 6: UK: Unemployment rate, 2001-12
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- Figure 7: Weighted average of response to question “how do you feel about your finances”, 2009-13
- Figure 8: UK: The income squeeze, 2008-13
- Spending on food
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- Figure 9: Estimated spending by broad product category, 2012
- Figure 10: Estimated channels of distribution for sales of food, drink and tobacco, 2012
- Online
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- Figure 11: Estimated online sales of food, drink and tobacco, by product, 2012
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- Figure 12: Online share of food, drink and tobacco category sales, 2012 (est)
- The consumer
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- Figure 13: Profile of grocery main shoppers, by age and socio-economic group, December 2012
- Customer satisfaction
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- Figure 14: Tesco: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
- Attitudes to grocery shopping
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- Figure 15: Attitudes to grocery shopping, December 2012
- Supermarket brands
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- Figure 16: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the supermarket sector, November 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Will the industry suffer lasting damage from the horse meat scandal?
- Who is responsible?
- Will anyone win?
- What must the industry learn from the scandal?
- What is the implication for prices?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Locavore
- Trend: Accentuate the Negative
- 2015 Trend: Brand Intervention – horses and provenance
The Market Environment
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- Key points
- Population
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- Figure 17: Proportion of men and women aged over 64, 2000-20
- The economy
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- Figure 18: UK: Quarterly GDP growth, 2000-12
- Unemployment
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- Figure 19: UK: Unemployment rate, 2001-12
- Inflation
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- Figure 20: UK: Inflation in food and drink, 2011-13
- The income squeeze
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- Figure 21: UK: The income squeeze, 2008-13
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 22: Weighted average of response to question “how do you feel about your finances, 2009-13
Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco – Overview
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- Key points
- Food and drink spending in context
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- Figure 23: Spending on in-home food and drink, 2007-12
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- Figure 24: Estimated spending by broad product category, 2012
- Forecast
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- Figure 25: Sales of in-home food, 2007-17 (f)
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- Figure 26: Sales of in-home soft drinks, 2007-17 (f)
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- Figure 27: Sales of alcohol, 2007-17 (f)
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- Figure 28: Forecast spending on food and drink, 2012-17
- Food and drink in the context of all spending
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- Figure 29: All spending on food, drink and tobacco as % all consumer spending, 2007-12(e)
- Sales by retailer
- In-home food
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- Figure 30: Sales of in-home food by retailer, incl. VAT, 2007-12
- Figure 31: Forecast sales of in-home food by retailer, incl. VAT, 2012-17
- Alcohol and tobacco
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- Figure 32: Sales of in-home alcohol and tobacco by retailer, incl. VAT, 2007-12
- Figure 33: Forecast Sales of in-home alcohol and tobacco by retailer, incl. VAT, 2012-17
- Online
- Market size
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- Figure 34: Online food and drink sales as % all spending on food and drink, 2007-17
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- Figure 35: Online food and drink: Sales by product, 2012
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- Figure 36: Online: Share of food and drink spending by category, 2012
Consumer Spending on Meat, Fish and Seafood
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 37: Channels of distribution for meat and fish, 2012
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- Figure 38: Spending on meat and fish by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 39: Forecast spending on meat and fish by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Fruit and Vegetables
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 40: Channels of distribution for fruit and vegetables, 2012
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- Figure 41: Spending on fruit and vegetables by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 42: Forecast spending on fruit and vegetables by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Confectionery
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 43: Channels of distribution for confectionery, 2012
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- Figure 44: Spending on confectionery by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 45: Forecast spending on confectionery by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Snacks
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 46: Channels of distribution for snacks, 2012
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- Figure 47: Spending on snacks by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 48: Forecast spending on snacks by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Dairy Products
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 49: Channels of distribution for dairy products, 2012
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- Figure 50: Spending on dairy products by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 51: Forecast spending on dairy products by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Desserts
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 52: Channels of distribution for desserts, 2012
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- Figure 53: Spending on Desserts by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 54: Forecast spending on Desserts by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Store Cupboard Basics
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 55: Channels of distribution for store cupboard basics, 2012
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- Figure 56: Spending on store cupboard basics by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 57: Forecast spending on store cupboard basics by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Foreign and Ethnic Foods
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 58: Channels of distribution for foreign & ethnic foods, 2012
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- Figure 59: Spending on foreign & ethnic foods by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 60: Forecast spending on foreign & ethnic foods by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Bread and Morning Goods
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 61: Channels of distribution for bread and morning goods, 2012
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- Figure 62: Spending on bread and morning goods by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 63: Forecast spending on bread and morning goods by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Ready Meals
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 64: Channels of distribution for ready meals, 2012
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- Figure 65: Spending on ready meals by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 66: Forecast spending on ready meals by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 67: Channels of distribution for soft drinks, 2012
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- Figure 68: Spending on soft drinks by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 69: Forecast spending on soft drinks by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Tobacco
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 70: Channels of distribution for tobacco, 2012
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- Figure 71: Spending on tobacco by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 72: Forecast spending on tobacco by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Beer and Cider
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 73: Channels of distribution for beer & cider, 2012
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- Figure 74: Spending on beer & cider by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 75: Forecast spending on beer & cider by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Consumer Spending on Wines and Spirits
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- Key points
- Spending and distribution
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- Figure 76: Channels of distribution for wines and spirits, 2012
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- Figure 77: Spending on wines and spirits by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2007-12
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- Figure 78: Forecast spending on wines and spirits by type of retailers, incl. VAT, 2012-17
Who’s Innovating
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- Supermarket TV channel with innovative click-to-buy function
- Experience another city’s local cuisine delivered to your door
- Auchan’s new fresh produce click and collect service
- Home delivery cocktail service
- Standalone collection points offer new flexibility to click and collect
Asda
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- What we think
- Driving home the price message
- Building multi-channel capability
- Sales growth slowing
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 79: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007-12
- Figure 80: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2007-12
- Retail offering
The Co-operative Food
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- What we think
- Share slipping
- Facing increasing c-store competition
- Greater emphasis on price
- Refocus on existing stores?
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 81: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2012/13
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- Figure 82: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2007/8-2012/13
- Retail offering
Sainsbury’s
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- What we think
- Gaining market share through the downturn
- Growing its convenience estate
- Online initiatives
- Quality and enhanced value credentials are working
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 83: Sainsbury’s Supermarkets: Financial performance, 2007/08-2012/13
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- Figure 84: Sainsbury’s supermarkets: Outlet data, 2007/08-2012/13
- Retail offering
Tesco
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- What we think
- Recovery plans
- Price
- Stores
- Acquisitions to offset weaknesses
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 85: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2012/13
- Figure 86: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2007/8-2012/13
- Retail offering
Waitrose Ltd
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- What we think
- A deserving winner
- Convenience and online
- Overseas expansion
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 87: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2012/13
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- Figure 88: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2007/8-2012/13
- Retail offering
Wm Morrison Group
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- What we think
- Bringing new life to stores
- Needs to underline value
- Tentative steps into e-commerce
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 89: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2007/8-2012/13
- Figure 90: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2007/8-2012/13
- Retail offering
Other Food and Drink Retailers
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- Figure 91: Smaller food retailers, Financial statistics, 2011/12-2012/13
- Figure 92: Smaller food retailers: Company evaluation
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Space Allocation Summary
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- Health warning
- Space allocation estimates
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- Figure 93: Morrisons, Tesco, Sainsbury, food space allocation, November 2012
- Figure 94: Waitrose, Asda, food space allocation, November 2012
- Figure 95: Estimated food space allocation in all large stores, November 2012
- Sales densities
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- Figure 96: Food, drink and tobacco, sales density by product, 2012
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 97: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the supermarket sector, November 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 98: Attitudes by supermarket brand, November 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 99: Supermarket brand personality – macro image, November 2012
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- Figure 100: Supermarket brand personality – micro image, November 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 101: Supermarket brand usage, November 2012
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- Figure 102: Satisfaction with various supermarket brands, November 2012
- Figure 103: Satisfaction with various supermarket brands, November 2012
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- Figure 104: Consideration of supermarket brands, November 2012
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- Figure 105: Consumer perceptions of current supermarket brand performance, November 2012
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- Figure 106: Supermarket brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, November 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 107: Supermarket brand index, November 2012
- Figure 108: Supermarket brand index vs. recommendation, November 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 109: Target groups, November 2012
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- Figure 110: Supermarket brand usage, by target groups, November 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
The Consumer – Who Shops Where
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- Key points
- Main weekly shop
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- Figure 111: Main shop used for groceries, December 2012
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- Figure 112: Profile of grocery main shoppers, by age and Socio-economic group, December 2012
- Why choose a particular shop
- Top-up shoppers
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- Figure 113: Shops used for top up shopping, December 2012
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- Figure 114: Profile of grocery top-up shoppers by age and Socio-economic group, December 2012
The Consumer – Satisfaction with Major Supermarkets
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- Key points
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- Figure 115: Satisfaction with main supermarket used, December 2012
- Attitudes to own brands
- Levels of satisfaction by supermarket used
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- Figure 116: Satisfaction with main supermarket used, by attitudes to grocery shopping, December 2012
- Tesco
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- Figure 117: Tesco: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
- Asda
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- Figure 118: Asda: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
- Sainsbury’s
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- Figure 119: Sainsbury’s: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
- Morrisons
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- Figure 120: Morrisons: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
- Waitrose
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- Figure 121: Waitrose: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
- Aldi
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- Figure 122: Aldi: Satisfaction with operation relative to the average, December 2012
The Consumer – Attitudes to Grocery Shopping
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- Key points
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- Figure 123: Attitudes to grocery shopping, December 2012
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- Figure 124: Attitudes to grocery shopping, by retailer used for the main shop, December 2012
- Horse meat
- But who is at fault?
- Provenance in food and drink
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- Figure 125: Factors influencing choice when buying food and (non-alcoholic) drink, December 2012 and March 2013
Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 126: Brand usage, November 2012
- Figure 127: Brand commitment, November 2012
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- Figure 128: Brand momentum, November 2012
- Figure 129: Brand diversity, November 2012
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- Figure 130: Brand satisfaction, November 2012
- Figure 131: Brand recommendation, November 2012
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- Figure 132: Brand attitude, November 2012
- Figure 133: Brand image – macro image, November 2012
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- Figure 134: Brand image – micro image, November 2012
- Figure 135: Profile of target groups, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 136: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, November 2012
- Figure 137: Brand usage by target groups, November 2012
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- Figure 138: Brand usage by target groups, November 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 139: Base: 4,069 internet users 16+
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Appendix – Consumer – Where People Shop
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- Figure 140: Main shop used for groceries, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 141: In store used for groceries, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 142: Online used for groceries, by demographics, December 2012
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Appendix – The Consumer – Top Up Shopping
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- Figure 143: Most popular shops used for top up shopping, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 144: Next most popular shops used for top up shopping, by demographics, December 2012
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Appendix – The Consumer – Satisfaction with Major Supermarkets
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- Figure 145: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – product quality for fresh foods including ready meals, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 146: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – product quality of non-fresh packaged goods, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 147: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – range of fresh foods, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 148: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – customer service, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 149: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – store standards, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 150: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – ease of navigation within the store, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 151: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – waiting time at checkout, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 152: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – New products availability, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 153: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – availability of goods, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 154: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – prices, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 155: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – promotions in general, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 156: Satisfaction with main supermarket used – supports local community, by demographics, December 2012
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes to Grocery Shopping
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- Figure 157: Most popular attitudes to grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2012
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- Figure 158: Next most popular attitudes to grocery shopping, by demographics, December 2012
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