Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Steady growth driven by data
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- Figure 1: Fan chart forecast U.S. cellular service revenues, 2007-17
- Data drives growth
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- Figure 2: U.S. cellular revenues and forecast, voice vs. data, at current prices, 2007-17
- Rapid growth for prepaid, but postpaid still rules
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- Figure 3: U.S. cellular revenues and forecast, prepaid vs. postpaid, at current prices, 2010-17
- The consumer
- Income central to carrier selection
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- Figure 4: Current cell phone service provider, by household income, September 2012
- Verizon the brand for whites
- The end of growth in voice subscriptions nears
- Type of plan driven by income
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- Figure 5: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to, contract vs. prepaid, by household income, September 2012
- One in five interested in switching carriers
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- Figure 6: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by age, September 2012
- Switchers want to connect
- Switchers and potential switchers of two minds about prices
- Length of tenure with provider rising
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- Figure 7: Length of tenure at current cell phone service provider, July 2007-March 2012
- Majority of laptops and tablets on fixed-point internet
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- Figure 8: Use of laptops and tablets on cellular networks, September 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Is it really just lipstick?
- Do limitations on voice minutes benefit carriers?
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- Figure 9: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to, by age, September 2012
- Figure 10: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to, by number of people in household, September 2012
- Why are there so few subscriptions?
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- Figure 11: Use of laptops or tablets on cellular networks, September 2012
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Prove It
- Trend: Cool Vending
- 2015 trends
- Trend: Old Gold
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- Figure 12: Family cell phone service plan subscribership, by age, September 2012
Insights and Opportunities
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- Play book for reducing churn by provider
- Subscribers at AT&T and Verizon want cost relief
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- Figure 13: Reasons for considering changing cell phone service plan, by current provider—Verizon and AT&T, September 2012
- Subscribers at Sprint and T-Mobile want improved speed and reception
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- Figure 14: Reasons for considering changing cell phone service plan, by current provider—Sprint and T-Mobile, September 2012
- Smaller carriers can ramp up customer service, expand low-cost smartphones
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- Figure 15: Reasons for considering changing cell phone service plan, by current provider—other* providers, September 2012
- Building digital families
Market Size
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- Key points
- Steady growth driven by data
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- Figure 16: U.S. cell phone service revenues, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 17: U.S. cell phone service revenues, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 18: U.S. cellular subscriptions, 2007-12
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 19: Fan chart forecast U.S. cell phone service revenues, 2007-17
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Voice adoption nearly complete
- One point of growth per year
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- Figure 20: Cell phone ownership, July 2007-March 2012
- Figure 21: Cell phone ownership, by age, August 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 22: Cell phone ownership, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
- Age and spend
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- Figure 23: Last month's cell/wireless phone bill, by age, August 2011-March 2012
- Figure 24: U.S. population by age, 2013-18
- Rising tide of high-income households
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- Figure 25: Last month's wireless phone bill, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
- Figure 26: Household income distribution, 2010-11
- Plan selection driven by income
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- Figure 27: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to, by household income, September 2012
Segment Performance: Voice vs. Data
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- Key points
- Voice vs. data
- Voice sales stagnant
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- Figure 28: U.S. cell phone service revenues, voice services vs. data services, at current prices, 2007-17
- Dramatic gains in connected devices
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- Figure 29: U.S. connected device subscriptions**, 2007-12
Segment Performance: Prepaid vs. Postpaid
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- Key points
- Prepaid vs. postpaid
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- Figure 30: U.S. cell phone service revenues, postpaid vs. prepaid, 2007-17
- Postpaid to rally on data use and more effective pricing
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- Figure 31: U.S. cellular service postpaid subscriptions, 2007-12
- Prepaid gains subscription share faster than revenue share
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- Figure 32: U.S. cellular service prepaid subscriptions, 2007-12
Innovations and Innovators
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- Verizon and AT&T launch shared plans
- AT&T makes foray into experiential retail
- Verizon expands footprint in autos
- Sprint targets buyback program to boost iPhone subscriber numbers
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Little change in positions from 2010-12
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- Figure 33: Cellular carrier subscribed to, July 2009-March 2012
- Four leaders
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- Figure 34: Current, former, and possible future cellular service provider, September 2012
- Verizon and AT&T succeed among high-income groups
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- Figure 35: Current cellular service provider, by household income, September 2012
- All income groups see trade-off in carriers selection
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- Figure 36: Attitudes to cellular service price, by age, September 2012
- Figure 37: Attitudes to cellular service price, by household income, September 2012
- Fear and inertia may benefit status quo
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- Figure 38: Attitudes to switching cellular service provider, by current provider, September 2012
- Older subscribers head for value
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- Figure 39: Current cellular service provider, by age, September 2012
- Leaders could gain share by increasing marketing of prepaid plans
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- Figure 40: Cellular service providers under consideration for future usage, by household income, September 2012
- T-Mobile most vulnerable, Verizon least
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- Figure 41: Level of interest in switching cellular service provider, by current provider, September 2012
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- Figure 42: Attitudes to cell phone service, by current provider, September 2012
- Figure 43: Attitudes to cellular plans, by current provider, September 2012
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- Figure 44: Attitudes to cellular service plan prices, by current provider, September 2012
- Perception of speed bumps at Sprint may outlive actual speed bumps
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- Figure 45: Attitudes to cellular internet usage, by current provider, September 2012
- AT&T subscribers heading off contract
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- Figure 46: Cellular service contract status, by current provider, September 2012
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Verizon
- Verizon TV ad touts family sharing
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- Figure 47: Verizon “Just Right” television ad, 2012
- Pushing shared data in print
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- Figure 48: Verizon print ad, sharing data to tackle the school year, 2012
- Marketing to sports fans
- AT&T
- AT&T TV ad touts family sharing
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- Figure 49: AT&T “Share plan” television ad, 2012
- Direct mail also focuses on sharing
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- Figure 50: AT&T direct mail ad, AT&T Plus offers Mobile Share plan, 2012
- Figure 51: AT&T print ad, the nation’s largest 4G network, 2012
- Sprint
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- Figure 52: Attitudes to switching cellular service provider, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
- Sprint TV ad shows unlimited data means no sharing needed
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- Figure 53: Sprint “Data coach” television ad, 2012
- Sprint uses email to offer incentives to switch
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- Figure 54: Sprint email ad campaign offers incentives to switch, 2012
- T-Mobile
- T-Mobile TV ad
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- Figure 55: T-Mobile “Across America” television ad, 2012
- MetroPCS
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- Figure 56: MetroPCS “Moving Facts” television ad, 2012
- TracFone
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- Figure 57: TracFone, “Coast to Coast” TV ad, 2012
Social Media
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 58: Key brand metrics, mobile service providers, January 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 59: Usage and awareness of selected mobile service providers, October 2012
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 60: Interaction with selected mobile service providers, October 2012
- Online conversations
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- Figure 61: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected mobile service providers, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- Figure 62: Online mentions, selected mobile service providers, percentageof daily mentions, by day, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- What are people saying about mobile service providers?
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- Figure 63: Mentions by page type, selected mobile service providers, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 64: Mentions by type of conversation, selected mobile service providers, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- Figure 65: Mentions by type of conversation, selected mobile service providers, percentage of daily mentions, by day, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
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- Figure 66: Major areas of discussion surrounding mobile service providers, by page type, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- Brand analysis
- T-Mobile
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- Figure 67: T-Mobile key social media metrics, January 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Verizon
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- Figure 68: Verizon key social media metrics, January 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- AT&T
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- Figure 69: AT&T Key social media metrics, January 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Sprint
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- Figure 70: Sprint key social media metrics, January 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Boost Mobile
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- Figure 71: Boost Mobile key social media metrics, January 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- U.S. Cellular
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- Figure 72: U.S. Cellular key social media metrics, January 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
Interest in and Attitudes Toward Changing Carriers
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- Key points
- Interest in changing service
- Behavior-based marketing most likely to reach near-term switchers
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- Figure 73: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by gender, September 2012
- Family plans may become less sticky
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- Figure 74: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by number of people in household, September 2012
- Figure 75: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by age, September 2012
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- Figure 76: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by household income, September 2012
- Figure 77: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by gender, September 2012
- Attitudes toward changing providers
- Sources of longer tenure: confusion, fear, and contentment
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- Figure 78: Likelihood of switching to a new carrier with service is disappointing, July 2008-March 2012
- Figure 79: Length of tenure at current carrier, July 2007-March 2012
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- Figure 80: Agreement that cell phone plans are confusing, by age, August 2011-March 2012
- Vast majority happy with current carrier
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- Figure 81: Select attitudes to cell phone service, September 2012
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- Figure 82: Select attitudes to cell phone service, by age, September 2012
- Change is difficult, even frightening
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- Figure 83: Attitudes to changing carriers, September 2012
- Limited interest in unlimited service
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- Figure 84: Interest in unlimited voice vs. data, September 2012
- Younger ages, larger households have greater concerns
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- Figure 85: Attitudes to switching cellular service provider, by number of people in household, September 2012
- Figure 86: Attitudes to switching cellular service provider, by age, September 2012
Attitudes and Interest of Switchers
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- Key points
- Switchers give the thumbs down to current customer service
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- Figure 87: Attitudes to cell phone service and carrier, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
- Half of switchers may be turning in favor of higher-cost plans
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- Figure 88: Attitudes to cellular service price and reception quality, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
- Need for speed drives interest in switching
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- Figure 89: Attitudes to cellular internet usage, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
- Cellular service for tablets and laptops central piece of switcher’s needs
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- Figure 90: Laptop ownership and method of internet access, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
- Figure 91: Tablet ownership and method of internet access, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
Reasons for Considering Changing Service
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- Key points
- Faster service, cheaper service, and more of it
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- Figure 92: Reasons for considering changing cell phone service plan, September 2012
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- Figure 93: Spend on monthly cell phone service bill, July 2007-March 2012
- Grouping desire
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- Figure 94: Reasons for changing cell phone service, by reasons for changing cell phone service plan, September 2012
Interest in and Attitudes Toward Mobile Internet
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- Key points
- Attitudes and behavior toward mobile internet driven by age
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- Figure 95: Attitudes to cellular service internet usage, by age, September 2012
- Connecting devices via cellular closely linked to age, income
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- Figure 96: Laptop ownership and method of internet access, by age, September 2012
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- Figure 97: Laptop ownership and method of internet access, by household income, September 2012
- Figure 98: Laptop ownership and method of internet access, by number of people in household, September 2012
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Second and third tier more successful with multicultural groups
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- Figure 99: Cellular carrier subscribed to, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-March 2012
- Verizon weak among Spanish speakers
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- Figure 100: Cellular carrier subscribed to, Hispanics, by language spoken in home, August 2011-March 2012
Custom Consumer: Focus on Young Men
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- Men aged 18-34 keen on ending relationship, moving on to beautiful new carrier
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- Figure 101: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by gender and age, September 2012
- Young men least satisfied with cellular internet
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- Figure 102: Attitudes to cellular internet usage, by gender and age, September 2012
- Young men wary of no contract
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- Figure 103: Attitudes to cellular plans, by gender and age, September 2012
Cluster Analysis
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- Connectors
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Vocalists
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Unhappy Campers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Happy Campers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 104: Target clusters, September 2012
- Figure 105: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by target clusters, September 2012
- Figure 106: Current provider, by target clusters, September 2012
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- Figure 107: Providers under consideration for future usage, by target clusters, September 2012
- Figure 108: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to, by target cell phone service clusters, September 2012
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- Figure 109: Reasons for changing cell phone service plan, by target cell phone service clusters, September 2012
- Figure 110: Monthly data allotment, by target cell phone service clusters, September 2012
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- Figure 111: Attitudes to cell phone service, by target cell phone service clusters, September 2012
- Figure 112: Attitudes to cellular service price, by target cell phone service clusters, September 2012
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- Figure 113: Attitudes to switching cellular service provider, by target clusters, September 2012
- Figure 114: Attitudes to cellular internet usage, by target clusters, September 2012
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- Figure 115: Attitudes to cellular plans, by target clusters, September 2012
- Figure 116: Laptop ownership and method of internet access, by target clusters, September 2012
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- Figure 117: Tablet ownership and method of internet access, by target clusters, September 2012
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 118: Target clusters, by demographic, September 2012
- Cluster methodology
Appendix: Additional Consumer Tables
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- Use of tablets with mobile internet
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- Figure 119: Tablet ownership and method of internet access, by age, September 2012
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- Figure 120: Tablet ownership and method of internet access, by number of people in household, September 2012
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- Figure 121: Tablet ownership and method of internet access, by household income, September 2012
- Family plan usage and intent to upgrade
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- Figure 122: Attitudes to cellular plans, by age, September 2012
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- Figure 123: Attitudes to cellular plans, by household income, September 2012
- Attitudes toward contract plans
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- Figure 124: Attitudes to cellular plans, by age, September 2012
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- Figure 125: Attitudes to cellular plans, by household income, September 2012
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- Figure 126: Attitudes to cellular plans, by interest in switching cellular service provider, September 2012
- Data allotment and contract status
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- Figure 127: Monthly data allotment, by age, September 2012
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- Figure 128: Monthly data allotment, by household income, September 2012
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- Figure 129: Contract status, by age, September 2012
- Presence of children
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- Figure 130: Monthly data allotment, by presence of children in household, September 2012
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- Figure 131: Attitudes to cell phone service, by presence of children in household, September 2012
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- Figure 132: Attitudes to price, by presence of children in household, September 2012
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- Figure 133: Attitudes to cellular internet usage, by presence of children in household, September 2012
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- Figure 134: Attitudes to cellular plans, by presence of children in household, September 2012
- Race and Hispanic origin
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- Figure 135: Last month's cell/wireless phone bill, Hispanics, by language spoken in home, August 2011-March 2012
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- Figure 136: Providers under consideration for future usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2012
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- Figure 137: Interest in switching cellular service provider, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2012
- Teens
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- Figure 138: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to by teens: family vs. individual, April 2007-June 2012
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- Figure 139: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to by teens: family vs. individual, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
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- Figure 140: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to by teens: prepaid vs. postpaid vs. no contract, April 2007-June 2012
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- Figure 141: Type of cell phone service plan subscribed to by teens: prepaid vs. postpaid vs. no contract, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
Appendix: Brand Awareness
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- Figure 142: Brand usage or awareness, October 2012
- Figure 143: Verizon usage or awareness, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 144: AT&T usage or awareness, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 145: T-Mobile usage or awareness, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 146: Sprint usage or awareness, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 147: U.S. Cellular usage or awareness, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 148: Boost Mobile usage or awareness, by demographics, October 2012
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Appendix: Social Media Activity
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- Figure 149: Activities done, October 2012
- Figure 150: Verizon—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 151: Verizon—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 152: AT&T—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 153: AT&T—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 154: T-Mobile—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 155: T-Mobile—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 156: Sprint—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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- Figure 157: Sprint—Activities done, by demographics, October 2012
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Appendix: Social Media Mentions
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- Figure 158: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected mobile service providers, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- Figure 159: Online mentions, selected mobile service providers, percentage of daily mentions, by day, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
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- Figure 160: Mentions by page type, selected mobile service providers, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
- Figure 161: Mentions by type of conversation, selected mobile service providers, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
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- Figure 162: Mentions by type of conversation, selected mobile service providers, percentage of daily mentions, by day, Dec. 24, 2012-Jan. 23, 2013
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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