Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Volume forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16
- Figure 2: Value forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16*
- Long-haul slump: over 600,000 fewer trips in 2011
- Latin America to lead growth
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- Figure 3: Long-haul holidays, percentage volume growth, by region, 2006-11
- Caribbean resilience despite APD
- Pre-retirement dreams
- Market factors
- Sri Lanka leads on holiday costs
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- Figure 4: Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer, January 2012*
- Price pressures: APD
- Price pressures: oil
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- Figure 5: Brent crude oil prices, annual average 2006-11, and spot price 6 March 2012
- Price pressures: carbon
- Living the dream (at last)
- BA capacity growth
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Leading suppliers
- Mainstream developments
- Kuoni’s new ethical brand
- Virgin in Mexico
- Trailfinders shifts upmarket
- Living on the edge
- Long-haul hits the high street
- The consumer
- Affluent market
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- Figure 6: Long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Australasia and Canada are ‘dream’ destinations
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- Figure 7: Long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
- A fifth of Britons take long-haul honeymoons
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- Figure 8: Long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
- Voluntourism interest
- Real and responsible
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2012
- Assistance required
- Flight costs are major impediment
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What are the future prospects for ‘long-haul, low-cost’ airlines?
- What are the implications of rising airfares (APD taxes and fuel prices) for the future of long-haul holidays?
- Are long-haul destination choices becoming or likely to become ‘safer’ and more conservative?
- Is there a potential market for long-haul property rentals?
- What is the future for travel agents in helping people to plan and book long-haul holidays?
Future Opportunities
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- Trend: No Degree, No Problem
- Trend: Retired for Hire
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Overseas market flat as domestic growth continues
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- Figure 10: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
- Average overseas spend drops in 2011
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- Figure 11: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2006-11
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- Figure 12: Total number of trips taken, by region, 2011
- Sri Lanka best for resort value
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- Figure 13: Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer, 2012 and 2011
- APD rises and no change to band structure
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- Figure 14: Air Passenger Duty, April 2012
- Peak experiences
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- Figure 15: Brent crude oil prices, 2006-12
- ETS impact
- Holiday surcharging is back
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- Figure 16: ABTA-registered travel companies levying surcharges, February 2012
- Low-cost long-haul
- BA long-haul capacity to grow?
- Dreamliner arrives
- Flying on chip fat
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Positive signs
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- Figure 17: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q4 2011
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- Figure 18: UK Consumer Confidence Index, March 2011-February 2012
- AB growth helpful for long-haul
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- Figure 19: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
- Growth in 25-34s
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- Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
- The rand and the Rupee
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- Figure 21: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007-11
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Short-haul substitution
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- Figure 22: Long-haul vs short-haul holiday volume and expenditure, at current prices, 2006-11
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- New long-haul routes
- Family adventures
- Mainstream changes
- 18-thirtysomething adventures
- Fair deal
- Tying (and untying) the knot
- Holiday affairs
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Long-haul suffers setback
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- Figure 23: Long-haul holidays volume and expenditure*, 2006-16
- Forecast
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- Figure 24: Volume forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16
- Figure 25: Value forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16*
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Latin America to lead growth
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- Figure 26: Long-haul holidays, by region, 2006-11
- Figure 27: Top 20 long-haul destinations, 2006-11
- Caribbean, North Africa and Mexico lead package segment
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- Figure 28: Visits, spending, average spend, proportion of package holidays, duration and spend per night per region, 2010
- January-March share slips
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- Figure 29: Long-haul holidays taken, by quarter, 2006-10
- Over-45 share grows
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- Figure 30: Long-haul holidays taken, by age, 2006-10
- Niche long-haul
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- Figure 31: Type of holiday taken for holidays/short breaks, 2012
- Rental opportunity
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- Figure 32: Type of accommodation used for holidays/short breaks, 2012
- Long-haul spend patterns
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- Figure 33: Total amount spent on holidays* for self and family in the last 12 months (excluding spending money), by region, 2012
Companies and Products
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- TUI Travel Plc
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- Figure 34: TUI UK and Ireland, key financials, 2010 and 2011
- Thomas Cook
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- Figure 35: Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK, India and Middle East segment, key financials, 2010 and 2011
- Cosmos/Monarch
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- Figure 36: Cosmos Holidays plc, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- Virgin Holidays
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- Figure 37: Virgin Holidays, key financials, 2010 and 2011
- Kuoni
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- Figure 38: Kuoni Travel Limited, key financials, 2009 and 2010
- Trailfinders
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- Figure 39: Trailfinders Limited, key financials, 2010 and 2011
- TUI Adventure/PEAK Adventure Travel Group
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- Figure 40: TUI Adventure, key financials, 2010 and 2011
- Explore Worldwide
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- Figure 41: Explore Worldwide Limited, key financials, 2009 and 2010
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Long-haul research
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- Figure 42: Research sources used for holidays overseas, 2012
- Flight-only agent bookings popular
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- Figure 43: Method used to book holidays/short breaks, by region, 2012
Long-haul Holiday Taking
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- Key points
- Three in ten go long-haul in last 12 months
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- Figure 44: Long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- AB, 16-34 peak
Long-haul Holiday Destinations
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- Key points
- US still dominant – potential for diversification
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- Figure 45: Long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
Long-haul Holiday Types
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- Key points
- All-inclusive rise
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- Figure 46: Long-haul holiday types taken, January 2012
- Honeymooners in for the long-haul
- Voluntary potential
- Holiday type demographics
- Future scope
- Destination/holiday type matches
Long-haul Holiday Attitudes
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- Key points
- Keep it real
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2012
- Long-haul luxury
- Expert advice
- Key obstacles
- Demographics of attitudes
- Family constraints
- Familiarity preferred
- Attitudes and destinations
Targeting Opportunities
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- Key points
- Target groups
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- Figure 48: Long-haul holidays target groups, January 2012
- Authentic Explorers
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- Distant Sun Seekers
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- Keen But Cautious
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- Unengaged
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 49: Volume forecast of long-haul holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
- Figure 50: Value forecast of long-haul holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
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Appendix – Long-haul Holiday Taking
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- Figure 51: Most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 52: Next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2012
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Appendix – Long-haul Holiday Destinations
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- Figure 53: Long-haul destinations visited, by most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Figure 54: Long-haul destinations visited, by next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
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- Figure 55: Long-haul destinations visited, by other long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Figure 56: Most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 57: Next most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 58: Other long-haul destinations ever visited, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 59: Most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 60: Next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 61: Most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 62: Next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 63: Other long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 64: Most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 65: Next most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 66: Other long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 67: Long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 68: Long-haul destinations never visited and not interested (continued), by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 69: Other long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
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Appendix – Long-haul Holiday Types
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- Figure 70: Long-haul holiday types taken, by most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Figure 71: Long-haul holiday types taken, by next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
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- Figure 72: Long-haul holiday types taken, by other long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Figure 73: Long-haul holiday types taken, by most popular long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
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- Figure 74: Long-haul holiday types taken, by next most popular long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
- Figure 75: Long-haul holiday types taken, by other long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
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- Figure 76: Long-haul holiday types taken, by least popular long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
- Figure 77: Most popular long-haul holidays ever taken, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 78: Next most popular long-haul holidays ever taken, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 79: Other long-haul holidays ever taken, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 80: Most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 81: Next most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 82: Other long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 83: Most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 84: Next most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 85: Other long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 86: Most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 87: Next most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 88: Other long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 89: Long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 90: Long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested (continued), by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 91: Other long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
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Appendix – Long-haul Holiday Attitudes
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- Figure 92: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Figure 93: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
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- Figure 94: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
- Figure 95: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
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- Figure 96: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
- Figure 97: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
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- Figure 98: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by least popular long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
- Figure 99: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, January 2012
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- Figure 100: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, January 2012
- Figure 101: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, January 2012
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- Figure 102: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, January 2012
- Figure 103: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, January 2012
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- Figure 104: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, January 2012
- Figure 105: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
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- Figure 106: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
- Figure 107: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
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- Figure 108: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by least popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
- Figure 109: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, January 2012
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- Figure 110: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul destinations never visited and not interested (continued), January 2012
- Figure 111: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul destinations never visited and not interested (continued), January 2012
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- Figure 112: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, January 2012
- Figure 113: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
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- Figure 114: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
- Figure 115: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
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- Figure 116: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, January 2012
- Figure 117: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, January 2012
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- Figure 118: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, January 2012
- Figure 119: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, January 2012
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- Figure 120: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, January 2012
- Figure 121: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, January 2012
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- Figure 122: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, January 2012
- Figure 123: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, January 2012
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- Figure 124: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, January 2012
- Figure 125: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, January 2012
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- Figure 126: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested (continued), January 2012
- Figure 127: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, January 2012
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- Figure 128: Agreement with most popular statements about long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2012
- Figure 129: Agreement with next most popular statements about long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2012
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- Figure 130: Agreement with other statements about long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2012
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Appendix – Targeting Opportunities
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- Figure 131: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by target groups, January 2012
- Figure 132: Long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, by target groups, January 2012
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- Figure 133: Long-haul destinations visited, by target groups, January 2012
- Figure 134: Long-haul holiday types taken, by target groups, January 2012
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- Figure 135: Target groups, by demographics, January 2012
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