Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, by sector, 2011
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods*, 2006-16
- Market factors
- Bread strikes a chord with consumers at breakfast and lunchtime
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- Figure 3: Eating occasions for bread and baked goods, October 2011
- Inflation in bread-making wheat dips in mid-2011 although the long-term outlook remains volatile
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- Figure 4: Monthly prices of breadmaking wheat, Jan 2006-Jul 2011
- Ageing population bodes well for sliced bread
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Share of own-label NPD overtakes branded
- Advertising support nosedives in 2010
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- Figure 5: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, 2007-11
- Warburtons leads a concentrated market
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- Figure 6: Brand shares in wrapped plant-produced bread, 2011
- Figure 7: Brand shares and value sales in wrapped plant-produced breads, 2009-11
- The consumer
- Fewer adults are eating sliced bread daily
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- Figure 8: Usage of bread in the last 12 months, 2010-11
- Attitudes towards bread and bakery goods
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards bread, October 2011
- Healthier recipes can be a draw for over half of bread eaters
- Issues considered important when choosing a bread product
- Bread users prioritise freshness above all other factors
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- Figure 10: Issues considered important when choosing a bread product, October 2011
- Use of British ingredients is only a minor concern for most
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can bread brands win back share from own-label?
- How can the bread market re-engage with the ABs?
- How can manufacturers entice more 16-24s into the wrapped sliced bread market?
- Which bakery areas should branded manufacturers venture into?
Future Opportunities
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- Trend: A Simple Balance for Health
- Trend: Hungry Planet
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Bakery products are popular breakfast choices
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- Figure 11: Breakfast items eaten in the home, June 2011
- Free-from sales are soaring
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- Figure 12: Estimated UK retail sales* of free-from foods, by value, 2006-11
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- Figure 13: Estimated value of leading UK gluten/wheat-free brands in the free-from foods sector, 2009 and 2010
- Low interest in fibre and health could hamper sector growth
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- Figure 14: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Price conscious consumers make more sandwiches at home
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- Figure 15: Sandwich and bread eating habit trends, November 2010-September 2011
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Breadmaking wheat prices remain volatile
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- Figure 16: Monthly prices of breadmaking wheat in the UK, January 2006-July 2011
- Older population set for growth
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- Figure 17: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2011-16
- Bread could benefit from fragile consumer outlook
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- Figure 18: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2007-December 2011
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Breakfast cereal sales plateau
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- Figure 19: Selected breakfast items eaten in the home, by gender and age, June 2011
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- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2006-11
- Shop-bought sandwiches feel the pinch
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- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of sandwiches, 2005-10
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- NPD levels remain fairly static
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- Figure 22: Share of bread and baked goods NPD within the total UK food market, 2007-11
- Own-label increases share of NPD
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- Figure 23: Share of branded and own-label NPD in the UK bread and baked goods market, 2007-11*
- Warburtons dominates NPD activity
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- Figure 24: Share of brands in NPD in the UK bread and baked goods market, 2007-11*
- Warburtons leads in NPD
- Major grocers enter free-from market
- Bread alternatives get the big brand treatment
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales growth stumbles
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- Figure 25: Value sales for bread and baked goods*, 2006-16
- The future of the market
- Value growth is expected to rally
- Bread and baked goods market forecast
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- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods*, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Sales by key sector
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- Figure 27: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery sectors, 2010-11
- Pre-packed bread
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- Figure 28: UK retail volume sales of pre-packed bread, 2006-11
- Figure 29: UK retail value sales of key wrapped bread sectors, 2010-11
- Morning goods
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- Figure 30: UK retail value sales of key morning goods sectors, 2010-11
- Speciality bread
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- Figure 31: UK retail value shares of key speciality bread sectors, 2010-11
- In-store bakeries
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- Figure 32: Total retail value sales of bread and baked goods baked in in-store bakeries, 2010-11
Market Share
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- Key points
- Warburtons leads a concentrated market
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- Figure 33: Brand shares in wrapped plant-produced bread, 2011
- Figure 34: Brand shares and value sales in wrapped plant-produced breads, 2009-11
- Kingsmill enjoys growth ahead of the wider segment
- Health-led brands fare well
Companies and Products
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- Allied Bakeries Ltd
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- Figure 35: Selected product launches in the UK by Allied Bakeries Ltd between November 2010 and October 2011
- Aryzta
- Brace’s Bakery Limited
- Greggs plc
- McCambridge Foods Limited
- Premier Foods
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- Figure 36: Selected products launched in the UK by Premier Foods Limited between January 2010 and October 2011
- Warburtons Ltd
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- Figure 37: Selected product launches in the UK by Warburtons Ltd between January 2010 and September 2011
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 38: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the bread sector, November 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 39: Attitudes by bread brand, November 2011
- Brand personality
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- Figure 40: Bread brand personality – macro image, November 2011
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- Figure 41: Bread brand personality – micro image, November 2011
- Brand experience
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- Figure 42: Bread brand usage, November 2011
- Figure 43: Satisfaction with various bread brands, November 2011
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- Figure 44: Consideration of bread brands, November 2011
- Figure 45: Consumer perceptions of current bread brand performance, November 2011
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- Figure 46: Bread brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, November 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 47: Bread brand index, November 2011
- Figure 48: Bread brand index vs. recommendation, November 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 49: Target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 50: Bread brand usage, by target groups, November 2011
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Ad spend slumps in 2010, falling further in 2011
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- Figure 51: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, 2007-10
- Warburtons is the biggest advertiser
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- Figure 52: Advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 companies, 2007-11
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Multiples dominate bakery
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- Figure 53: Estimated retail distribution of bread and baked goods, 2008-11
- Craft Bakers
Consumer – Usage of Bread
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- Key points
- Bread is a family favourite
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- Figure 54: Usage of bread, all users, 2011
- Daily bread usage dips
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- Figure 55: Usage of bread in the last 12 months, 2010-11
- Alternative types of bread attract more medium users
Consumer – Types of Bread Products Used Most Often
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- Key points
- Frequent usage of sliced bread increases among users
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- Figure 56: Types of breads used most often in the last 12 months, 2010-11
- Pricier, speciality bread types record slight declines in usage as most often used bread
Consumer – Eating Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods
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- Key points
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- Figure 57: Eating occasions for bread and baked goods, October 2011
- Bread is just as likely to be eaten for dinner than as a snack
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- Figure 58: Usage of bread and baked goods as a snack in between meals, by age, October 2011
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Bread
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- Key points
- In-store bakery has the taste advantage
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards bread, October 2011
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- Figure 60: Agreement with the statements ‘Bread baked in in-store bakeries tastes better than wrapped bread,’ and ‘I would pay more for a bread if I knew it was recently baked,’ by gender and age, October 2011.
- Further potential for healthy breads, especially among younger bread users…
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- Figure 61: Agreement with the statement: ‘I would eat healthier/low-fat bread more often if it were less expensive,’ by age, October 2011
- … although consumer trust in bread’s healthiness is not a guarantee of sales growth
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- Figure 62: Agreement with the statement: ‘I would buy more bread if I was convinced it was good for me,’ by age, October 2011
- Thrifty behaviour: one in two users now freezes bread
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- Figure 63: Agreement with the statement: ‘I am freezing bread more often to make it last longer,’ by age and socio-economic group, October 2011
- Home-made bread remains rare
- Young and old have polarised views on brand loyalty
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- Figure 64: Agreement with the statement ‘I usually buy whatever brand of bread is on promotion,’ by age, October 2011
- Consumers unconvinced about branded superiority over own-label
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- Figure 65: agreement with the statement ‘Branded bread tastes better than own-label bread,’ October 2011
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- Figure 66: agreement with the statement ‘I have switched to buying own-label bread,’ by age group, October 2011
- Nearly three in ten would like to see a wider variety of flavours in sliced bread
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- Figure 67: agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavours (eg honey) in sliced, wrapped bread,’ October 2011
Consumer – Issues Considered Important When Choosing a Bread Product
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- Key points
- Bread users prioritise freshness above all other factors
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- Figure 68: Issues considered important when choosing a bread product, October 2011
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- Figure 69: Selected issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by age, October 2011
- Best before/use by dates
- 16-24s and Ds place the most importance on price
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 70: Target groups, October 2011
- Brand Loyalists (27%)
- Home Bakers (19%)
- Big Potentials (22%)
- The Price-Leds (32%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 71: Most popular items eaten for breakfast in the home, by demographics, June 2011
- Figure 72: Next most popular items eaten for breakfast in the home, by demographics, June 2011
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- Figure 73: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 74: Eating habit trends, by demographics, October 2011
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Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 75: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
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Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 76: Product launches within the UK bread and baked goods market, by private label, 2007-11*
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 77: Additional best case/worst case forecast for bread and baked goods, 2011-16
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 78: Brand usage, November 2011
- Figure 79: Brand commitment, November 2011
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- Figure 80: Brand momentum, November 2011
- Figure 81: Brand diversity, November 2011
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- Figure 82: Brand satisfaction, November 2011
- Figure 83: Brand recommendation, November 2011
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- Figure 84: Brand attitude, November 2011
- Figure 85: Brand image – macro image, November 2011
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- Figure 86: Brand image – micro image, November 2011
- Figure 87: Profile of target groups, by demographic, November 2011
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- Figure 88: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, November 2011
- Figure 89: Brand usage, by target group, November 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 90: Brand index, November 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Bread
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- Figure 91: Usage of packaged sliced bread, by demographics, 2011*
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Appendix – Types of Bread Products Used Most Often
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- Figure 92: Usage of other types of bread, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 93: Types of breads used most often in the last 12 months, 2010-11
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Appendix – Consumer – Eating Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods
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- Figure 94: Eating occasions for bread and baked goods, by demographics, October 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Bread
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- Figure 95: Agreement with statements ‘I would eat healthier/low-fat bread more often if it were less expensive’ and ‘I would buy more bread if i was convinced it was good for me’, by demographics, October 2011
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- Figure 96: Agreement with statements ‘Branded bread tastes better than own-label bread’ and ‘I usually buy whatever brand of bread is on promotion’, by demographics, October 2011
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- Figure 97: Agreement with statements ‘I am freezing bread more often to make it keep longer’ and ‘I have switched to buying own-label bread’, by demographics, October 2011
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- Figure 98: Agreement with statements ‘I would pay more for a bread if i knew it was recently baked’ and ‘I regularly make my own bread’, by demographics, October 2011
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- Figure 99: Agreement with statements ‘Bread baked in in-store bakeries tastes better than wrapped bread’ and ‘Toast is a healthier breakfast option than most cereals’, by demographics, October 2011
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- Figure 100: Agreement with statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavours’, by demographics, October 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Issues Considered Important When Choosing a Bread Product
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- Figure 101: Most popular issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by demography, October 2011
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- Figure 102: Next most popular issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by demography, October 2011
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Appendix – Target Groups
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- Figure 103: Consumer target group, by demographics, October 2011
- Figure 104: Attitudes towards bread, by consumer target group, October 2011
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- Figure 105: Issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by target group, October 2011
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