Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Market data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Cookies and cookie bars, a large but stagnant category
- Explore sales for younger children and their parents
- Indulgence wins over healthy
- Standard cookies remain category’s largest segment
- Supermarkets attract largest share of category sales
- Natural channel business
- Kraft Foods top cookie manufacturer
- Private label grows at the expense of name brands
- Chocolate is most common flavor-based introduction
- Who is the cookie and cookie bar consumer?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Meal replacement cookies
- Branded-cookie breakfast cereal
- Sports performance/functional benefits cookies
- Variety packs as a promotional tool
- Branded cookie mixes
Inspire Insights—Trend: Fit or Fat
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Cookies and cookie bars sales essentially flat
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- Figure 1: U.S. sales and forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 2: U.S. sales and forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 3: U.S. sales and fan forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2005-15
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Children key to cookie consumption levels
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- Figure 4: Population, by age, 2005-15
- Obesity concerns may be impacting usage
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- Figure 5: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
- Ongoing economic troubles has people packing more lunches
- Consumers turning to private label
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- In-store bakeries and specialty retailers competing against cookie aisle
- Cookies made from scratch and refrigerated products/mixes eat into shelf-stable sales
- Girl Scout cookies providing more than friendly competition
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Standard cookies continue category dominance
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales and forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, by segment, 2005-15
- Continued economic troubles bolster private label sales
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- Figure 7: FDMx sales of cookies and cookie bars, by type of cookie, 2009 and 2010
Segment Performance—Standard Cookies
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- Key points
- Standard cookies enjoy big sales but small growth
- Sales and forecast—standard cookies
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- Figure 8: FDMx sales of standard cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance – Healthy Cookies
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- Key points
- Consumers saying one thing but buying another
- Older consumers most interested in healthier attributes
- Sales and forecast—healthy cookies
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- Figure 9: FDMx sales of healthy cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Premium Cookies
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- Key points
- Sales flat since 2005
- Cookies as an affordable indulgence
- Sales and forecast—premium cookies
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- Figure 10: FDMx sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Private Label Cookies
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- Key points
- Weak economy makes for strong sales
- Store brands have room to grow
- Sales and forecast—private label cookies
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- Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Lowering the bar on cookie bar sales
- Difference between cookies and bars could be a selling point
- Sales and forecast—cookie bars
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- Figure 12: FDMx sales and forecast of cookie bars, at current prices, 2005-15
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets attract largest share of category sales
- Channel sales distribution remains relatively unchanged
- Non-FDMx outlets second only to supermarkets for cookie/cookie bar sales
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- Figure 13: Sales of cookies and cookie bars, by retail channel, 2009 and 2010
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets’ sales are stagnant
- Cookies are popular with families, a core supermarket audience
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- Figure 14: Sales of cookies and cookie bars at supermarkets, 2005-10
Retail Channels—Other FDMx
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- Key points
- Other FDMx benefitting from down economy
- Challenges to cookies in these outlets
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- Figure 15: Sales of cookies and cookie bars at other fdmx, 2005-10
Retail Channels – Other Non-FDMx Outlets
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- Key points
- Sales continue slow upward climb
- Premium cookies a fixture of these outlets
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- Figure 16: Sales of cookies and cookie bars at other non-fdmx outlets, 2005-10
Natural Channel/SPINS
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- Key points
- Segment sales basically flat
- Sales of cookies in the natural channel
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- Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2008-10
- Figure 18: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
- Implications
- Leading brands
- Newman’s Own Organics still number one despite significant decline
- Gluten-free Pamela’s grows while Weetabix’ Barbara’s slows
- Kraft’s Back to Nature small but growing
- Bernie the Rabbit boosts sales of Annie’s Homegrown cookies
- Natural channel sales of cookies by organic
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- Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, by organic vs. non-organic, August 2008 and August 2010
- Natural channel sales of cookies by gluten-free
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- Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, by gluten-free or not, August 2008 and August 2010
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods top cookie manufacturer
- Private label grows at the expense of name brands
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- Figure 21: FDMx sales of leading cookies and cookie bar manufacturers, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Standard Cookies
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- Key points
- Nabisco leverages strong Oreo brand identity
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- Figure 22: FDMx brand sales of standard cookies, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Healthy Cookies
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- Key points
- Big companies generate biggest share of business
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- Figure 23: FDMx brand sales of healthy cookies, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Premium Cookies
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- Key points
- Pepperidge Farm experiences poor crop of sales
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- Figure 24: FDMx brand sales of premium cookies, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Little Debbie leverages value positioning
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- Figure 25: FDMx brand sales of cookie bars, 2009 and 2010
Innovation and Innovators
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- Key points
- Chocolate is most common flavor-based introduction
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- Figure 26: Cookie launches, by flavor, 2005–10
- Kosher most common label/function claim
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- Figure 27: Cookie launches, by label/function claim, 2005–10
- The following are examples of the notable cookie and cookie bar introductions over the last year.
- Standard cookies
- Healthy
- Premium
- Private label
- Cookie bars
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Brand and merchandising strategies
- Nabisco
- Keebler
- Pepperidge Farm
- McKee Foods
- Facebook and other online initiatives
- Nabisco
- Keebler
- Pepperidge Farm
- Little Debbie
- Kraft Foods’ “You Gotta LOL” series
- Television advertising
- Keebler Fudge Stripes
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- Figure 28: Keebler/Fudge Stripes Cookies, “Last Cookie,” TV ad, July 2010
- Chips Ahoy!
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- Figure 29: Nabisco/Chips Ahoy!, “There’s a lotta joy in Chips Ahoy!” TV ad, May 2010
- Double Stuf Oreo
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- Figure 30: Nabisco/Double Stuf Oreo, “Make the call,” TV ad, September 2010
Trends and Types of Cookies Eaten
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- Key points
- Long-term trends
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- Figure 31: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, 2003–10
- Figure 32: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, 2003-10
- Cookie types eaten—demographics
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- Figure 33: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by age, February 2009-March 2010
- Figure 34: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by household income, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 35: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by number of people in HH, February 2009-March 2010
- Figure 36: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by presence of children, February 2009-March 2010
Brand Consumption of Cookies—Adults, Teens and Kids
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- Key points
- Keebler
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- Figure 37: Consumption of Keebler cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
- Nabisco
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- Figure 38: Consumption of Nabisco cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
- Pepperidge Farm
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- Figure 39: Consumption of Pepperidge Farm cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
- Other cookies
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- Figure 40: Consumption of other cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
Eating Cookies and Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Frequency of eating
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- Figure 41: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, July 2010
- Figure 42: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by gender, July 2010
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- Figure 43: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by age, July 2010
- Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten
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- Figure 44: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by gender, July 2010
- Figure 45: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by age, July 2010
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- Figure 46: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by presence and number of children, July 2010
- Figure 47: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by region, July 2010
Factors Influencing Cookie and Cookie Bar Purchase
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- Key points
- Attributes that matter most when buying cookies
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- Figure 48: Ingredients and other elements considered when buying cookies, by age, July 2010
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- Figure 49: Ingredients and other elements considered when buying cookies, by urban status, July 2010
Perception of Natural Cookies
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- Key points
- Natural cookie perception by key demographics
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- Figure 50: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by gender, July 2010
- Figure 51: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by age, July 2010
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- Figure 52: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by household income, July 2010
Cookies Purchase
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- Key points
- How cookies are bought and used
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- Figure 53: How cookies are bought and used, by gender, July 2010
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- Figure 54: How cookies are bought and used, by household income, July 2010
- How cookies are bought and used—the kid effect
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- Figure 55: How cookies are bought and used when it comes to kids, by gender, July 2010
- How cookies are chosen/cooked
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- Figure 56: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by gender, July 2010
- Figure 57: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by age, July 2010
Cookies—The Decision-Making Process and Role of Private Label
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- Key points
- Decision making
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- Figure 58: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by age, July 2010
- Figure 59: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by household income, July 2010
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- Figure 60: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by presence and number of children, July 2010
- Why buy private label?
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- Figure 61: Reason for buying private label cookies, July 2010
Why Reach for a Cookie?
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- Key points
- Cookie-eating occasions
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- Figure 62: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by gender, July 2010
- Figure 63: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by age, July 2010
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- Figure 64: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by household income, July 2010
- Figure 65: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by presence and number of children, July 2010
What Should a Cookie Be?
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- Key points
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- Figure 66: Importance of cookie traits—health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by gender, July 2010
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- Figure 67: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by age, July 2010
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- Figure 68: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste. simple vs. complex; by household income, July 2010
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- Figure 69: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by marital status, July 2010
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- Figure 70: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by presence and numer of children, July 2010
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Cookie consumption by race/Hispanic origin
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- Figure 71: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
- Cookie types eaten
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- Figure 72: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
- Frequency of eating
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- Figure 73: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten
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- Figure 74: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Factors influencing cookie and cookie bar purchase
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- Figure 75: Ingredients and other elements considered when buying cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Perception of natural cookies
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- Figure 76: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- How cookies are bought and used
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- Figure 77: How cookies are bought and used, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- How cookies are chosen/cooked
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- Figure 78: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Cookies—The decision-making process
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- Figure 79: The decision making process and choosing cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Why reach for a cookie?
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- Figure 80: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- What should a cookie be?
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- Figure 81: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Custom Consumer Tables—Mosaic Groupings
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- Key points
- Household consumption of cookies
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- Figure 82: Household consumption of cookies, by mosaic grouping, February 2009-March 2010
- Types of cookies eaten in household
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- Figure 83: Types of cookies eaten in household, by mosaic grouping – part 1, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 84: Types of cookies eaten in household, by mosaic grouping – part 2, February 2009-March 2010
- Brands of cookies eaten in household
- Keebler
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- Figure 85: Keebler cookies eaten in household, by brand, by top mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 86: Keebler cookies eaten in household, by brand, by bottom mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
- Nabisco
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- Figure 87: Nabisco cookies eaten in household, by brand, by top mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 88: Nabisco cookies eaten in household, by brand, by bottom mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
- Pepperidge Farm
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- Figure 89: Pepperidge Farm cookies eaten in household, by brand, by top mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 90: Pepperidge Farm cookies eaten in household, by brand, by bottom mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
- Other
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- Figure 91: Pepperidge Farm cookies eaten in household, by brand, by bottom mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 92: Other cookie brands eaten in household, by brand, by top mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
- Volume of cookies eaten in household
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- Figure 93: Number of packs of cookies eaten in household, by top mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 94: Number of packs of cookies eaten in household, by bottom mosaic user groups, February 2009-March 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Infrequent Eaters and Buyers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Occasional, Non-Bakers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Frequent, Ready-to-Eat
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 95: Cookie eater clusters, July 2010
- Figure 96: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by cookie eater clusters, July 2010
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- Figure 97: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by cookie eater clusters, July 2010
- Figure 98: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by cookie eater clusters, July 2010
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- Figure 99: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by cookie eater clusters, July 2010
- Figure 100: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by cookie eater clusters, July 2010
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- Figure 101: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by cookie eater clusters, July 2010
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 102: Cookie eater clusters, by gender, July 2010
- Figure 103: Cookie eater clusters, by age, July 2010
- Figure 104: Cookie eater clusters, by household income, July 2010
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- Figure 105: Cookie eater clusters, by race, July 2010
- Figure 106: Cookie eater clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Cluster methodology
Builders Panel—Key Household Purchase Measures—Cookies
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- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—cookies
- Brand map
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- Figure 107: Brand map, selected brands of cookies buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 108: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cookies, by household penetration, 2009*
Appendix—Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Symphony IRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix—Trade Associations
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