Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Recession yields mixed results for shelf-stable meals
- Market size and forecast
- Market drivers
- Competition for the food dollar from other “economical” meals
- Shelf-stable meals’ health and taste perceptions a hurdle in expanding user base
- Grocery stores command lion’s share of market
- Interest in SS meals cools in natural channel
- Manufacturer and brand trends—top three dominate
- Selected brand analysis
- Dry macaroni and cheese
- Prepared pasta dishes
- Prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce
- Microwaveable package dinners
- Prepared dinners/entrées
- Innovation driven by claims for convenience, purity, and environmentally friendly positioning
- The shelf-stable meal and meal kit consumer
- Consumers willing to pay more for organic and premium shelf-stable meals
- Taste of shelf-stable meal is the biggest barrier in growing consumer base
- Custom consumer groups: the impact of gender and income
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Re-Teching the Past
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Return to restaurants in 2010 negatively affects sales
- Mature category is challenged to attract new users
- Health and taste perception hamper growth
- Hispanic consumers important for future growth
- Sales of shelf-stable meals and kits
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- Figure 1: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 2: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Households with children drive growth
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- Figure 3: Usage of complete packaged dinner mixes, by presence and number of children, November 2008-December 2009
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- Figure 4: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by presence and number of children, July 2010
- Figure 5: Households, by presence of children, 1999-2009
- Fast growing Hispanic households mean more sales
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- Figure 6: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2005-15
- Figure 7: Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
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- Figure 8: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Taste concerns may inhibit marketers from promoting healthier fare
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- Figure 9: Attributes diet watchers look for in food, 2006/07 and 2008/09
- Recession benefit on shelf-stable meal sales less than expected
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- Figure 10: Impact of recession on consumption of shelf-stable and frozen meals, by type, July 2010
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Competition from within—private label
- Growing battle for shelf space—shelf-stable side dishes
- Quick and tasty—competition from refrigerated frozen aisles
- External competition outside the retail space
- QSR fighting back
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Macaroni and cheese was saving grace during 2008-10
- Segment sales
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- Figure 11: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, by segment, 2008 and 2010
- Figure 12: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, by segment, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Dry Macaroni and Cheese
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- Key points
- Innovative line extensions encourage steady growth
- Benefiting from recession
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of dry macaroni and cheese, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Prepared Pasta Dishes
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- Key points
- Expand sales by reaching out to more adults
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared pasta dishes, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Prepared Chili and Sloppy Joe Sauce
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- Key points
- Mature market lacks innovation
- Make sloppy joe and chili convenient for lunch
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Microwaveable Package Dinners
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- Key points
- Healthy microwaveable meals offer alternative to fast food
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of microwaveable package dinners, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Prepared Dinners/Entrées
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- Key points
- Microwaveable packaging beats the can for individual meals
- Sales and forecast
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- Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared dinners/entrées, at current prices, 2005-15
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Mass merchandisers nibbling at share
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- Figure 18: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by gender, July 2010
- Sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by channel
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- Figure 19: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals, by retail channel, 2008 and 2010
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets finding success in variety and value
- Supermarkets stand up to fast food
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- Figure 20: Supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, 2005-10
Retail Channels—Drug and Mass
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- Key points
- Walmart and Target are aggressively pursuing discount shoppers
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- Figure 21: Drug and mass* sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, 2005-10
Natural channel/SPINS
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- Key points
- Sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits in the natural channel
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- Figure 22: Natural supermarket shelf-stable meals and meal kits, at current prices, 2008-10
- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
- Implications
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by segment, 2008 and 2010
- Leading brands in segments of note
- Natural channel sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits by organic
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- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by organic vs. non-organic, 2008 and 2010
- Made with organic ingredients also strong
- Natural channel sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kit segments by organic
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- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by segment, by organic vs. non-organic, 2008-10
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods keeps products fresh
- ConAgra Foods provides variety
- Private label fails to thrive in a down economy
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- Figure 27: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by leading manufacturers, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Dry Macaroni and Cheese
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- Key points
- Value and versatility are the key
- Annie's Homegrown catering to better-for-you consumers
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of dry macaroni and cheese, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Prepared Pasta Dishes
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- Key points
- Leaders struggle to find place in a health-driven market
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of prepared pasta dishes, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Prepared Chili and Sloppy Joe Sauce
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- Key points
- Current innovations need to push further
- Bush Brothers & Company pulling out?
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Microwaveable Package Dinners
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- Key points
- Healthy image + international flavors = winning combination
- Private labels attract price-sensitive consumers
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of microwaveable package dinners, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Prepared Dinners/Entrées
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- Key point
- Mary Kitchen makes meat and potatoes easy
- Private label successful with low-cost meals
- Manufacturer and brand shares
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- Figure 32: FDMx brand sales of prepared dinners/entrées, 2009 and 2010
Innovation and Innovators
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- Overview
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- Figure 33: Number of new shelf-stable meal or meal kit product introductions, by subcategory, 2005-10
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- Figure 34: Top 10 claims in new shelf-stable meals and meal kit products, 2005-10
- Convenient preparation
- Convenient packaging
- Purity claims
- Ethical and environmentally friendly packaging
- Innovative companies
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- Figure 35: Number of new shelf-stable meal or meal kit product introductions, by company, 2005-10
- Innovations by segment
- Instant noodle, pasta and rice—allergen-free claims
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- Figure 36: New product claims in instant noodle, pasta and rice, 2005-10
- Meal kits sport international flair
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- Figure 37: New product claims in meal kits, 2005-10
- Prepared meals for vegetarians
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- Figure 38: New product claims in prepared meals, 2005-10
Marketing Strategies
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- Brand and merchandising strategies
- Shelf-stable meals go after lunch dollars
- Healthy Choice Fresh Mixers
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- Figure 39: Healthy Choice Fresh Mixers, TV ad, 2010
- Hormel Compleats
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- Figure 40: Hormel Compleats, TV ad, 2010
- Marie Callender's Home-Style Creations
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- Figure 41: Marie Callender's Home-Style Creations, TV ad, 2009
- Targeting more than little kids
- Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Cheddar Explosion
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- Figure 42: Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Cheddar Explosion, TV ad, 2010
- Kraft Homestyle Macaroni & Cheese
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- Figure 43: Kraft Homestyle Macaroni & Cheese, TV ad, 2010
- Chef Boyardee Big Beef Ravioli
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- Figure 44: Chef Boyardee Big Beef Ravioli, TV ad, 2010
- Online initiatives
- Hormel Stagg Chili
- Kraft
- Annie’s Homegrown
- ConAgra Foods and Campbell Soup Co.
Household Consumption of Shelf-stable Meals and Mixes
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- Key points
- Overview trends
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- Figure 45: Household consumption of shelf-stable meals and mixes, 2004-10
- Household consumption demographics
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- Figure 46: Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes, by household income, February 2009-March 2010
- Brands of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten by household
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- Figure 47: Brands of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten by household, February 2009-March 2010
Meal Consumption and Preparation
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- Key points
- Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household
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- Figure 48: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by gender, July 2010
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- Figure 49: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by age, July 2010
- Number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten
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- Figure 50: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by age, July 2010
Interest in New Meal Concepts
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- Key points
- High levels of interest in new concepts
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- Figure 51: Level of interest in various types of shelf-stable meal concepts, July 2010
- Willingness to pay more for interesting new concepts
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- Figure 52: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by age, July 2010
- Types of international meals interested in seeing in food stores
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- Figure 53: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by age, July 2010
Source of Meals—Retailer Type
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- Key points
- Grocery channels dominate—but not for younger consumers
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- Figure 54: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by age, July 2010
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- Figure 55: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by household income, July 2010
Reasons for Not Using Shelf-stable Meals
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- Figure 56: Reasons for not using shelf-stable meals, by gender, July 2010
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How Families Use Shelf-stable Meals
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- Key points
- Adult opinion on kids and shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 57: Adult opinion on kids and shelf-stable meals, July 2010
- Attitudes towards food and cooking
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- Figure 58: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by age, July 2010
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by presence and number of children, July 2010
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household
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- Figure 60: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Willingness to pay more for interesting new concepts
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- Figure 61: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Types of international meals interested in seeing in food stores
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- Figure 62: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Source of meals—retailer type
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- Figure 63: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Attitudes towards food and cooking
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- Figure 64: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Diversifiers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Savers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Traditionalists
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 65: Shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
- Figure 66: Level of interest in various types of shelf-stable meal concepts, by shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
- Figure 68: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 69: Shelf-stable clusters, by gender, July 2010
- Figure 70: Shelf-stable clusters, by age, July 2010
- Figure 71: Shelf-stable clusters, by household income, July 2010
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- Figure 72: Shelf-stable clusters, by race, July 2010
- Figure 73: Shelf-stable clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2010
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer tables—Impact of Gender and Income
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- Key points
- High-earning women seek meal kits
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- Figure 74: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by gender and household income, July 2010
- Number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten
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- Figure 75: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by gender and household income, July 2010
- High-earning men eating more shelf-stable meals during recession
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- Figure 76: Impact of recession on consumption of shelf-stable and frozen meals, by type, by gender and household income, July 2010
- Willingness to pay more for interesting new concepts
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- Figure 77: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by gender and household income, July 2010
- Types of international meals interested in seeing in food stores
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- Figure 78: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by gender and household income, July 2010
- Source of meals by retailer type
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- Figure 79: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by gender and household income, July 2010
- Adult opinion on kids and shelf-stable meals
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- Figure 80: Parent opinions on kids and shelf-stable meals, by gender and household income, July 2010
IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of SS dinners
- SS prepared pasta dishes
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS prepared pasta dishes
- Brand map
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- Figure 81: Brand map, selected brands of SS prepared pasta dishes buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 82: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS prepared pasta dishes, by household penetration, 2009*
- SS prepared chili
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS prepared chili
- Brand map
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- Figure 83: Brand map, selected brands of SS prepared chili buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 84: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS prepared chili, by household penetration, 2009*
- SS microwaveable package dinners
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS microwaveable package dinners
- Brand map
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- Figure 85: Brand map, selected brands of SS microwaveable package dinners buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 86: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS microwaveable package dinner, by household penetration, 2009*
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Household consumption demographics
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- Figure 87: Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes, by product type, by age, February 2009-March 2010
- Types of meals eaten by specific family members
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- Figure 88: Types of meals eaten by specific family members, July 2010
- Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household
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- Figure 89: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by household income, July 2010
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- Figure 90: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by region, July 2010
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- Figure 91: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by household income, July 2010
- Interest in new meal concepts
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- Figure 92: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by household income, July 2010
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- Figure 93: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by household income, July 2010
- Source of meals by retailer type
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- Figure 94: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by presence and number of children, July 2010
Appendix: Trade Associations
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