Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
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- Key themes
- Abbreviations
Future Opportunities
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- Trading Up, Trading Down, Trading Over
- Retail Comes Alive
Market in Brief
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- Retail in the front line of recession
- Survivors to benefit
- More failures likely in 2009
- Consumers dumping debt and spending less on their homes in the recession
- Younger people continuing to spend
- Working families under pressure
- Older affluent consumers well placed to ride out the recession
- Retail trends in 2009
- It’s not all about discounting
- It’s not all about market share
- Diversify to generate new business
- Better integration of online and store
- Reduce, reconfigure, share; reappraisal of space use
- Invest in service
- Research more
- Ideas and interest from abroad
Market in Context
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- Household finances showing signs of pressure
- 2008 figures yet to show impact of recession
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- Figure 1: Retail sales, annual change by value and volume, not seasonally adjusted, 2006-07 and 2007-08
- Worst Christmas in living memory
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- Figure 2: December retail sales, annual change by value and volume, not seasonally adjusted, 2006-07 and 2007-08
- VAT rate cut had minimal impact
- Withdrawal of credit insurance sent several retailers into administration
- Worst is yet to come
- Rising unemployment to depress retail demand in 2009
- Retail unemployment rising
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- Figure 3: Retail companies announcing redundancies, 2008/09
- Business rate increases about to hit
- Devaluation of Sterling to trigger upward price pressure
- Opportunities in the downturn
- Administrations create sales opportunities for survivors
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- Figure 4: Major companies entering administration, by annual sales, 2008-09
- Abusing pre-pack administrations?
- Retail companies announcing recruitment
- Falling rents ease cost pressures
- More landlords accepting monthly rent payments
- Oscars of 2007/08 point to likely winners in 2008/09
- Fastest growing companies
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- Figure 5: Top ten retailers, by sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Lost sales in 2007/08
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- Figure 6: Bottom ten retailers, by sales decrease, 2006/07-2007/08
- Biggest businesses gaining share
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- Figure 7: Top ten UK retail groups by sales, 2006/07-2007/08
- Biggest growth in operating profits
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- Figure 8: Top ten retailers, by operating profits, 2006/07-2007/08
- Highest net operating margin
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- Figure 9: Top ten retailers, by net margin, 2006/07-2007/08
- Making acquisitions pay
- Food outlet numbers driven by convenience
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- Figure 10: Most outlets opened, 2006/07-2007/08
Food and Drink Retailing
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- Delivering better value in an increasingly hostile market
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- High food inflation in 2008 masks slowing volume
- Further consolidation as major companies tighten their grip
- Competition Commission enquiry calls for action on competition and supplier relationships
- Retailers squeezing suppliers ever harder
- Discounters see the recession as an opportunity
- Major grocers retailers fighting back on price and product
- Greater emphasis on ideas will shift focus from purely price-led thinking
- Asda, Morrisons and Ocado expect non-food to provide growth…
- …but Tesco sees huge potential in financial services
- Who’s innovating?
- Speciality retailer looking to innovate
- Waitrose getting closer to foodies
- Give us our daily deal
- Deals and developments
- Another fascia to go
- Oddbins back in British ownership
- Holland & Barrett capitalises on Baugur’s problems
- Greggs gives up on Bakers Oven
- Private equity group rescues Whittard of Chelsea
- Majestic Wine builds on fine wines
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- Spar multiple pushing on
- Park & Shop extending its reach
- Rhythm & Booze prospers in recession
- Abel & Cole fighting on price
- Wither organics specialists?
- South East expansion for Bill’s Produce Store
- Ethicalsuperstore.com focuses on values
- M&S Simply Food and BP expansion continues
- Headline sales growth strong
- 2007/08 out turn generally good but food inflation high
- Relatively few negative trends
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- Figure 11: Food and drink retailers sales growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Good Christmas for food retailers
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- Figure 12: Food and drink retailers headline sales, at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- 2008/09 profits weaker at Waitrose
- Profits growth as margins maintained
- Inflation helping to lift profits?
- Recovery phase companies deliver strong profits growth
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- Figure 13: Food and drink retailers oprating profit growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Health food retailer has healthiest margins
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- Figure 14: Food an drink retailers net operating margin: top five gainers and trailing 2006/07-2007/08
- Future opportunities
- Recession a big test for organics, ethics and greener retailing
- More in-store technology
- Online sales growing
- Retailers and investors have to get used to trading down
Clothing and Footwear Retailing
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- Recession exposing under performing companies
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators:
- Redistribution of sales
- Consumer attitudes
- Supermarkets got grand designs on clothing sales
- Trading up, trading down
- Diversify to drive up sales densities
- Maintaining relevance through segmentation
- Driving additional sales through online
- Catalogue retailers also converting more shoppers to online
- Concessions versus stores
- Footwear specialists flat-footed
- Raising customer service standards to increase sales
- Size segmentation versus inclusiveness
- Rising costs a major issue
- Production standards under scrutiny
- Who’s innovating?
- Dressing up discounting – it’s not all about price
- Segmentation strategies maintain vitality
- New concept – Best foot forward
- Deals and developments
- Numerous company failures as liquidity dries up
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- Figure 15: Clothing and footwear retailers entering administration, 2008/09
- Mosaic Fashions emerges from administration as Aurora Fashions
- Dune Footwear takes on The Shoe Studio
- But no taker for Principles stores
- Major companies looking to trim headcounts
- And then there were two…
- Freemans Grattan about to make major changes
- Bhs to be subsumed into Arcadia Group
- Key acquisitions:
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- Gearing up for further growth
- Just in from abroad
- Westfield London provides UK debut for international retailers
- Looking to launch in 2009/10
- ASOS leading online
- Also taking off online
- Private sales sites attracting attention…
- …but one early exponent moving on
- Ethical options
- Sales trends
- Volatility in trends
- Online specialists and niche businesses shone
- Major businesses expanding
- Half of those losing sales did so by more than 5%
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- Figure 16: Clothing and footwear retailers sales growth, top five gainers and losers, 2006/07-2007/08
- Primark continues to outperform the category
- Young fashion companies yet to be hit by the downturn
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- Figure 17: Clothing and footwear retailers headline sales, at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Profit and margin trends
- Strong profits growth for over 30 companies
- Strong sales growth not matched by profits growth as costs rise too fast
- Nearly half of companies had lower profits in 2007/08
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- Figure 18: Clothing and footwear retailers operating profit growth, top five gainers and losers 2006/07-2007/08
- Double-digit earners have room for manoeuvre
- Low margin businesses a cause for concern
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- Figure 19: Clothing and footwear retailers, net operating margin, top five gainers and losers, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Online integration
- More use of in-store technology
Department Stores and Mixed Goods Retailing
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- Under pressure from all sides
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Volume up but value down
- What was Woolworths good at?
- Grocers increasing competitive pressure
- Bargain stores driving through the recession
- Not everyone wants to trade down
- Shopping centre development pipeline drying up
- TV shopping benefiting from digital expansion
- Home shopping face PPI checks
- Who’s innovating?
- Argos wants feedback
- Bargain shops see a future online as well as in-store
- Investing to cut shrinkage
- Deals and developments
- Woolworths the biggest retail casualty of the recession
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- Figure 20: Department stores and mixed goods retailers entering administration, 2008/09
- Woolworths’ demise not unexpected
- Woolworths brand acquired by Shop Direct Group
- Woolworths lives on in name and through small scale revivals
- Collapse of Wrapit shows online not immune
- Beales and Allders form strategic alliance
- Tchibo gives up on concessions and may exit the UK completely
- Job losses in response to slower sales
- Job creation in response to new opportunities
- Emerging multiples and ones to watch
- Buy, sell and loan stores flourishing
- TK Maxx launches HomeSense into UK
- Casino to enter UK as pure-play online discounter
- New ideas in online
- Shops driving growth at Jo Jo Maman Bebe
- National Geographic
- Sales trends
- Category under pressure but strong brands doing well
- Marks & Spencer the significant company
- Discounters showing well
- Top five gainers and trailing
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- Figure 21: Mixed goods retailers sales growth, 2006-08
- Interims show beginnings of the slowdown
- Christmas trading very mixed
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- Figure 22: Department stores and mixed goods retailers headline sales at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Debenhams damp 2008/09
- 2008/09 trading weak for John Lewis and Argos
- Profit and margin trends
- Wide variation in performance trends
- Top five gainers and trailing
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- Figure 23: Mixed goods retailers operating profit growth, 2006-08
- Department stores continue to make the highest margins
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- Figure 24: Mixed goods retailers net operating margin, 2006/07-2007/08
- Heading for a fall?
- Insights and opportunities
- Sales and margin mix analysis critical to general merchandisers
- Promoting quality, design and ideas
- Investing in service to improve satisfaction
- Integration of online to increase
DIY and Hardware Goods Retailing
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- Living with a stagnant housing market
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Weak volume sales but prices holding up
- Non movers not intending to improve
- DIY to swing back into fashion
- DIY not necessarily more attractive than DIFM (Do It For Me)
- Who’s innovating?
- B&Q goes premium
- Leveraging brand trust into services
- Budget brand does it for Focus
- Deals and developments
- B&Q abandons Trade Depot
- Travis Perkins retail division expanding its tiling operation
- Into and out of hot water
- Strategic Retail Group places subsidiaries in administration
- Job losses among retailers
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- Ohlson opens
- Full Steam ahead
- Sales trends
- 2007/08 topline growth generally good
- Smaller companies gaining through expansion
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- Figure 25: DIY retailers sales growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Second half of 2008 a disaster for DIY
- Wickes’ preliminary full year results equally bad
- Kingfisher UK also down
- Homebase sales very weak
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- Figure 26: DIY and hardware goods retailers, headline sales at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Profit and margin trends
- Profits growth rarely exceeded sales growth in 2007/08
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- Figure 27: DIY retailers operating profit growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Significant pressure on margins already evident in 2007/08 figures
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- Figure 28: DIY retailers net operating margin, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Major chains need to overcome their reticence about online trading
- Taking online back from the know it alls
- Re-igniting the DIY spark
Furniture and Furnishings Retailing
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- Living with weak demand
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Sales value down, volume sales even worse
- Furniture felt the effects of the downturn first and hardest
- Learning to live with lower sales
- Slash adspend because it doesn’t work
- Downsize and diversify to improve sales densities
- Online gaining ground
- Who’s innovating?
- British manufacturers take lead on advertising product not price
- Carpet colleagues follow
- New ideas
- Clearance websites
- Clearance stores
- Aggregator e-stores
- Store-based retailers looking for a share of online sales
- Deals and developments
- Plenty of bad news
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- Figure 29: Table furniture and furnishings retailers entering administration, 2008/09
- MFI’s failure provides branding lesson
- Majority of MFI store leases surrendered to landlords
- The Range snaps up MFI stock
- Land of Leather also sags into administration
- World of Sofas emerges from Land of Leather
- Other companies taking remedial action to prop up bottom line
- Smaller is beautiful for Sofa Workshop
- Goodbye Rosebys hello Ponden Mill
- Carpetright downsizing and diversifying to drive up sales densities in the downturn
- Retiring early
- Emerging multiples and ones to watch
- Some smaller companies bucking the trend
- JYSK looking to become market leader
- Sales trends
- IKEA dominant among the specialists
- Strong brands and companies did well in 2007/08
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- Figure 30: Sales growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Sales fell sharply in second half of 2008
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- Figure 31: Furniture and furnishings retailers headline sales at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Laura Ashley preliminary results sees profits dip
- Dunelm like-for-like and operating profits slide
- Profit and margin trends
- Majority achieved good profits growth in 2007/08
- Slower sales crippled operating profit performance
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- Figure 32: Operating profits growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- High margin earners under pressure
- Low margin earners under threat of failure
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- Figure 33: Net operating margin, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Making space work harder
- Design to inspire
- Making more use of technology
- Investing in service to ensure satisfaction
Technology and Electrical Goods Retailing
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- The front line of the shops vs online conflict
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Strong volume sales but prices tumbling
- Demand for durables steady
- Multichannel stores fighting back
- De-space race
- Adding value through service
- Technological convergence making retailers look very similar
- Who’s innovating?
- Podcasting product information
- Breaking rigid replacement cycles
- Multi-brand approach to online by store-based electrical goods retailers
- Deals and developments
- Collapse of Empire Direct gives hope to store based technology retailers
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- Best Buy moving into the UK – but when?
- So what’s different about Best Buy?
- FNAC from France
- Scope for a national lighting specialist?
- Rent-to-buy specialist Brighthouse bucking the trend
- Sales trends
- Online leads the way
- New stores driving growth through niche specialists
- Signs of major problems at DSGi and Jessops
- Two biggest general electrical goods retailers reported a moderately successful year
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- Figure 34: Technology retailers sales growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Mainstream electrical companies suffering in first half of 2008/09
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- Figure 35: Headline sales, at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Jessops losses mount in 2008/09
- Profit and margin trends
- Online sellers profit performance stronger in 2007/08
- Maplin’s expansion delivering strong profits growth
- Smaller companies struggling to contain costs
- Jessops’ losses widen
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- Figure 36: Operating profits growth, top five gainers and trailing 2006/07-2007/08
- Online operators make only slender margins
- Weaker margins among store-based companies
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- Figure 37: Net operating margin, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Competing against online
- Digital help in the digital age
- Range segmentation and diversification
Health and Beauty Retailing
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- Developing healthcare services and niche formats
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Strong growth in value and volume
- Spend on health is essential rather than discretionary
- Pharmacy profits under scrutiny
- Further development of pharmacy services
- Consumers looking for better value on beauty products
- Increased competition from supermarkets
- Fragrance specialists competing with department stores
- Who’s innovating?
- Online opportunities in health…
- …and in beauty
- A rash of advice
- Deals and developments
- Biggest companies in the category cutting back
- Passion for Perfume fails
- Optical merger
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- Neal’s Yard Remedies
- Rituals expanding
- Amazon looking to health
- Sales trends
- Enlarged Co-op Pharmacy business now the third largest in the UK
- New openings driving sales growth
- Savers scaled down by AS Watson
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- Figure 38: Sales growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Modest growth at Christmas
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- Figure 39: Headline sales, at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Profit and margin trends
- Pharmacy chains all performed well in 2007/08
- Specialist beauty and fragrance chains had mixed fortunes
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- Figure 40: Operating profit growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Category generally profitable
- Co-op Pharmacy investing for operational benefits
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- Figure 41: Net operating margin, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Extension of pharmacy services
- Pharmacies to do more to cater for aging population
- Small is beautiful
Books, Stationers and Greetings Cards Retailing
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- Discounting undermining specialist booksellers
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Volume down, value down
- Store-based booksellers under threat
- Failure of discount greetings cards formats
- Stationers less exposed to competition from non-specialists
- Who’s innovating?
- Waterstone’s loyalty scheme expanding
- Borders offers shares to motivate managers
- Deals and developments
- The Works bought out of administration but Celebration Group broken up
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- Figure 42: Booksellers, stationers and greetings cards retailers entering administration, 2008/09
- WH Smith secures exclusive rights to airport stores
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- The Book Depository – fast growing online specialist
- FNAC flying in from France
- Sales trends
- Stationers outperforming the rest
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- Figure 43: Top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Little in the way of Christmas cheer
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- Figure 44: Headline sales at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- 2008/09 year end results
- Profit and margin trends
- Strong gains in 2007/08
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- Figure 45: Operating profit growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Margin gains hard to come by
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- Figure 46: Net operating margin, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Online a long term threat, but people like visiting bookshops
- New book technology offers new selling opportunities
- Ecards: A last minute solution
Other Non-food Specialist Categories
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- Most leading specialists performing well
- Sector structure, trends and issues
- Key indicators
- Strong value and volume growth in 2008
- Jewellery purchases under pressure
- Garden centres need innovation
- Music and entertainment: digital delivery cuts out retailers
- Sports and outdoor leisure benefiting from more active lifestyles
- Toys and games gone electronic
- Other specialists
- Who’s innovating?
- Halfords riding out the recession on its bike
- Turning a profit on recycling
- Going green
- Deals and developments
- Zavvi dragged under by failure of EUK, part of Woolworths
- New opportunities in online
- HMV capitalises on zavvi break up and acquires Gamerbase
- JJB struggling for survival
- Rivals bailing out JJB through share purchase
- Tesco’s acquisition of Dobbies complete
- Job losses as companies look to cut costs
- Diamonds and Pearls goes under
- Services business fails
- Emerging multiples and ‘ones to watch’
- The Entertainer gearing up for multi-channel expansion
- Games Workshop consolidating its UK store network
- Hamleys of London
- Smyths Toys continuing to expand
- Hawkins Bazaar doubles in size
- Belgian toy brand expanding into the UK
- Build-A-Bear sees further growth potential
- Play.com expanding into clothing
- MandM Direct stretching out in the recession
- JD Sports Fashion aims to gain from online discounting
- Bite heading south
- Sweaty Betty flexing its muscles
- Go Outdoors getting going
- Nevisport to climb back
- Golf Town to hit UK fairways in 2009
- Jack Wolfskin to develop standalone chain
- Just for Pets leading the way
- Jewellery Channel poised for profit
- New to UK brand fronted by familiar face
- Azendi expects to sparkle
- Folli Follie set to grow
- Italian jewellers arrive in London
- Theo Fennell looking to grow
- Sales trends
- Strong year for growth in 2007/08
- Games and entertainment leading the way
- Evans Cycles developing its niche
- Dobbies doing well before full impact of Tesco acquisition takes effect
- Niche businesses doing well
- Jewellers feeling the pinch
- Sports Direct rues England’s football failure
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- Figure 47: Sales growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Sports goods retailers suffering most
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- Figure 48: Headline sales, at interim stage and Christmas trading, 2008/09
- Profit and margin trends
- Profit trends generally positive
- Game’s profits surge on strong sales
- Rising costs eat into profits
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- Figure 49: Operating profit growth, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Costs have to be cut
- Jewellers doing well to maintain their bottom line
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- Figure 50: Operating margin, top five gainers and trailing, 2006/07-2007/08
- Insights and opportunities
- Jewellers under pressure
- Exploiting gifting potential in music and entertainment retailing
- Computer and video games retailing largely supply driven
- Emphasis on active participation to help sports and leisure retailers
- Toys retailing needs to be more fun
- Think bike
- Opportunities in niche categories
- Garden centres contributing to greener lifestyles
Consumer Outlook
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- Key points
- Increased impact of recession
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- Figure 51: Change in people’s concerns, February 2008-January 2009
- Young are most worried about job prospects
- Affluent middle agers to kick start recovery
- Older people less worried but likely to over react
- Expenditure priorities for 2009
- Fewer holidays as debt dumping takes precedence
- Financial prudence to reduce spend available to retailers
- Spend on major renovations, minor repairs and garden projects to decline in 2009
- Demand for clothing, durables, furnishings and cars holding up well
- Out of home spend holding up well
- It’s all bad news so let’s celebrate
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- Figure 52: Expenditure priorities, 2007-09
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- Figure 53: The ten most important spending priorities for 2009, January 2009
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- Figure 54: The next 16 most important spending priorities for 2009, January 2009
- Debt dumpers and new prudents directing spend away from retailers
- Cars, clothes and going out – younger adults want to spend
- Who can still afford to repair and spend on the garden?
- Furniture and furnishings
- Few families going out…
- …or taking holidays
- Special occasions not being stinted on
- Charities and retailers to work together
Appendix – Market in Context
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- Figure 55: Companies reporting operating losses, in both 2006/07 and 2007/08
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Appendix – Food and Drink Retailers
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- Figure 56: Food and drink retailers sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 57: Operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 58: Operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Clothing and Footwear Retailers
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- Figure 59: Clothing and footwear retailers, sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 60: Clothing and footwear retailers, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 61: Clothing and footwear retailers, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Mixed Goods Retailers
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- Figure 62: Mixed goods retailers, sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 63: Mixed good retailers, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 64: Mixed goods retailers, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – DIY Retailers
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- Figure 65: DIY retailers sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 66: DIY retailers, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 67: DIY retailers, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Furniture and Furnishings Retailers
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- Figure 68: Sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 69: Operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 70: Operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Technology Retailers
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- Figure 71: Technology retailers, sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 72: Technology retailers, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 73: Technology retailers, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Health and Beauty Retailers
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- Figure 74: Health and beauty retailers, sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 75: Health and beauty retailers, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 76: Health and beauty retailers, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Booksellers and Stationers
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- Figure 77: Booksellers and stationers, sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 78: Booksellers and stationers, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 79: Booksellers and stationers, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Non-food Retailers
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- Figure 80: Non-food specialists, sales growth, 2006/07-2007/08
- Figure 81: Non-food specialists, operating profits growth, 2006/07-2007/08
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- Figure 82: Non-food specialists, operating margins, 2006/07-2007/08
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Appendix – Consumer Outlook
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- Further demographic breakdowns are available from Mintel upon request
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- Figure 83: How concerns of the British population have shifted, over the past year 12 months, Feb 2008-Feb 2009
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- Figure 84: Personal concerns, January 2009
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- Figure 85: Personal concerns, January 2009
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- Figure 86: Spending priorities, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, special groups, region, ACORN group, technology users, daily newspaper, commercial TV viewing and supermarket used, January 2009
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- Figure 87: Spending priorities, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, special groups, region, ACORN group, technology users, daily newspaper, commercial TV viewing and supermarket used, January 2009
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- Figure 88: Spending priorities, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, special groups, region, ACORN group, technology users, daily newspaper, commercial TV viewing and supermarket used, January 2009
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