Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
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- Key themes
- Definitions
Future Opportunities
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- Twin peaks
- On the doorstep
- Entertaining at home
Market in Brief
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- Value growth bolstered by higher wheat prices
- NPD is thriving
- Demand fell
- Distribution
- The future of the market
- Comfort food and treats in the recession
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Missed breakfast…
- …does not help the bakery market
- New school regulations…
- …have opened up opportunities
- Lunchtime eating habits…
- …shape trends in bread and morning goods
- A switch from dieting to health
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- Figure 1: Attitudes towards dieting, 2006-08
- The treat factor is still important
- Prevalence of obesity in adults
- Men – the future problem
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- Figure 2: Prevalence of obesity in adults, by gender, 2003 and 2010
- Special dietary needs provide opportunities
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- Figure 3: Population suffering from food allergies, 2008
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- Figure 4: Innovation in bread and bread products suitable for special diets (% of bread launches), 2006-08
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Price of flour
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- Figure 5: UK: Consumer Price Index: bread and cereals, January 2006-November 2008
- An ageing population
- Cost-conscious 25-34-year-olds
- Younger generations influence purchasing habits
- Working women create opportunities
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- Figure 6: Working status of women, 2004-08
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- Figure 7: Working status of women, by social grade and presence of children, 2007
- Student numbers rise
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- Figure 8: Number of students in Higher Education institutions, 2000/01-2005/06
- Compact loaves for smaller households
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- Figure 9: Trends in UK household size, 2003-13
Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Own-label dominates NPD in 2008
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- Figure 10: NPD in bread and bread products, % own-label vs branded, 2003-08
- More sophisticated own-label offerings
- Value lines extended
- On the go
- Leading product positioning is additive-free
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- Figure 11: Top five ways for positioning new product launches in bread and morning goods, 2006-08
- Healthy launches by positioning
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- Figure 12: Healthy bread and morning goods launches, by positioning, 2008*
- Focus on allergen reduction and gluten intolerance
- Low-fat claims for a wider variety of products
- Specific health claims
- Organic products proliferate
- Lunchbox products
- Overseas inspiration
- All things Italian
- Size matters
- Nuts and seeds
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Total value sales up 30%
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of bread and morning goods, 2003-13
- Tapping into evolving trends
- Bread out performing morning goods
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- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of bread and morning goods, by sector, 2003-13
- The future of the market
- Forecast
- Healthy but slower growth
- Factors in the forecast
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Bread
- Volume sales of bread are slipping
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- Figure 15: UK retail volume and value sales of bread, 2003-13
- Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Trading up boosts value sales of bread
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- Figure 17: UK retail value sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Sliced white bread making a comeback
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- Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of white bread, by type, 2006-08
- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of white bread, by type, 2006-08
- Brown bread boosted by its health credentials
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- Figure 20: UK retail volume and value sales of brown bread, by type, 2006-08
- Speciality bread selling well
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- Figure 21: UK retail volume and value sales of continental and speciality bread, by type, 2006-08
- Flavour sensation
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- Figure 22: UK retail value sales of speciality/ethnic bread, by type, 2006-08
- Plant bakeries dominate
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- Figure 23: UK retail value sales of plant bread, by type, 2006-08
- Figure 24: Share of plant bread within UK retail value sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Morning goods
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- Figure 25: UK retail value sales of morning goods, 2003-13
- Plant bakers focus on morning goods
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- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of morning goods, by source, 2006-08
- Seeking solace in comfort foods
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- Figure 27: UK retail value sales of rolls, bakery snacks and foreign recipe products, by source, 2006-08
- Healthy roll out
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- Figure 28: UK retail value sales of rolls, by type, 2006-08
- Foreign recipe goods and fruited products
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- Figure 29: UK retail value sales of bakery snacks and foreign recipe products, by type, 2006-08
- Bagels bite
- Warm as toast
Brand Shares
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- Key points
- Brand shares – bread
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- Figure 30: Brand shares in plant-produced bread, 2006-08
- Investment pays off for Warburtons
- Premier Foods rescues Hovis and Nimble
- Own-label raises its game
- Brand shares – morning goods
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- Figure 31: Brand shares in plant-produced morning goods, 2006-08
- Warburtons warms up the category
- Own-label dominates NPD
- Slow growth for value brands
- Niche offerings
Companies and Products
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- Key points
- Brand map
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- Figure 32: Brand map of bread and morning goods, 2009
- Allied Bakeries
- Next steps
- Premier Foods
- Warburtons
- Others
- Frank Robert & Sons Ltd
- Braces Bakery Ltd
- Greggs plc
- The Food Doctor
- Mission Foods
- Bakehouse
- BakeMark
- Cuisine de France
- Fine Lady Bakeries
- Inter Link Foods/McCambridge
- Kitchen Range Foods
- Krispy Kreme
- Maple Leaf Foods
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend on bread and morning goods
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- Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising spend on bakery goods, 2004-08
- Low priority for advertising
- Advertising by media
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- Figure 34: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries, by media type, January-November 2008
- More extensive media coverage
- Adspend by advertiser
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- Figure 35: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries, by advertiser, 2004-08
- Allied Bakeries raises profile
- Supermarkets advertise on price
- Low priority for morning goods
- Advertising themes
- Family goodness
- Tradition
- Flavour and texture
- Discount/price
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Grocery multiples increase share at expense of smaller outlets
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- Figure 36: UK retail sales of bread and morning goods, by outlet type, 2006-08
- Grocery multiples dominate
- Craft bakers get crafty
- Bake-off heats up
- Retailer activity
- Asda
- Co-op
- Marks & Spencer
- Morrisons
- Sainsbury’s
- Tesco
- Waitrose
Consumption of Bakery Products
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- Key points
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- Figure 37: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, November 2008
- Roll over
- From continental to international recipes
- Warm as toast
- Indulgent treats are still important
- Ready-made, not part-baked
- Morning goods/bakery snacks – consumption by gender
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- Figure 38: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, by gender, November 2008
- Male/female divide
- Socio-economics divide
- Location, location, location
- Further potential for Marks & Spencer
- Morning goods – preference by age
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- Figure 39: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, by age, November 2008
Consumption of Bread
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- Key points
- Trends in consumption of bread
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- Figure 40: Frequency of eating bread, 2004-08
- Competition from other products intensifies
- White v brown
- Heavy consumption correlated with age and socio-economic group
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- Figure 41: Demographic profile of daily bread consumers, 2008
- Types of bread eaten
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- Figure 42: Type of bread eaten most often, 2004-08
- Re-evaluation of white bread
- Innovation boosts consumption
- Bread consumed in the last six months
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- Figure 43: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, November 2008
- Foreign = special
- Nutty about health
- Ethical concerns fall flat
- Sliced for convenience
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- Figure 44: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by age, November 2008
- Age – a key factor
- Socio-demographics and supermarkets
- Specialist free-from bread
Consumer Attitudes Towards Bread
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- Key points
- Attitudes towards bread
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- Figure 45: Attitudes towards bread, November 2008
- Eating bread for health reasons
- Money is less of an issue
- Dichotomy over branding
- Attitudes – key demographics
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- Figure 46: Attitudes towards bread, by key demographics, November 2008
- Health vs cost
- Who shops where?
Further Analysis
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- Key points
- Number of types of bread
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- Figure 47: Number of types of bread eaten in the last six months, November 2008
- Seeking variety
- Varied buying habits
- Number of types of bread, by type
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- Figure 48: Number of types of bread eaten in the last six months, by type, November 2008
- Health v authenticity
- Number of types of morning goods
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- Figure 49: Number of types of bakery products and morning goods eaten, November 2008
- Wide variety in diet
- All or nothing?
- Number of types of bakery products – by type
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- Figure 50: Number of types of bakery products eaten, by type, November 2008
- A roll and a crumpet
- Target groups
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- Figure 51: Target groups on attitudes towards bread, November 2008
- Who are they?
- Apathetic/Habitual buyers (34%)
- Price conscious (20%)
- Health motivated (28%)
- Quality concerned (18%)
- Gender debate
- Target groups – by attitudinal statements
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- Figure 52: Target groups, by attitudinal statements, November 2008
- What characterises buyer type?
- Target groups – by type of bread
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- Figure 53: Target groups, by types of bread eaten in the last six months, November 3008
- Buyer types and their preferences
- Target groups – by type of bakery product
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- Figure 54: Target groups, by bakery products (not including sliced bread) eaten, November 2008
- Conforming to type
- Target groups – by number of types of bread
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- Figure 55: Target groups, by number of types of bread eaten in the last six months, November 2008
- Shopping around
- Target groups – by number of types of bakery products
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- Figure 56: Target groups, by number of types of bakery products/morning goods eaten, November 2008
- Apathy limits choice
Appendix
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- Consumer research
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 57: Population suffering from food allergies, by demographics, 2008
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Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 58: Trends and projections in UK household size, 2003-13
- Figure 59: Trends and projections in UK population, by age group, 2003-13
- Figure 60: Trends and projections in UK population, by socio-economic group, 2003-13
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Appendix – Consumption of Bakery Products
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- Figure 61: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
- Figure 62: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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- Figure 63: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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Appendix – Consumption of Bread
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- Figure 64: Frequency of any bread consumption, by demographics, 2008
- Figure 65: Consumption of bread in the last six months, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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- Figure 66: Consumption of bread in the last six months, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Bread
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards bread, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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- Figure 68: Attitudes towards bread, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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Appendix – Further Analysis
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- Figure 69: Number of types of bread eaten in the last six months, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
- Figure 70: Number of types of bakery products eaten, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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- Figure 71: Target groups on attitudes towards bread, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
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