Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
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- Main issues
- Definition
- Abbreviations
Market in Brief
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- Market set to dip as ban and economy bite
- Cost pressures increase
- Increased emphasis on value
- Operators forced to look to new revenue streams
- Leased/tenanted pub operators dominate industry
- Managed sector holds its own
- Consolidation process continues apace
- Entertainment is the key
Insights and Opportunities
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- Sup and shop?
- Meeting needs?
- Pub as the hub?
Fast Forward Trends
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- Trend 1: Third Place
- What’s it about?
- What’s it mean
- What next?
- Trend 2: Style Returns
- What’s it about?
- What’s it mean
- What next?
- Trend 3: Trial Without Error
- What’s it about?
- What’s it mean
- What next?
- What is Fast Forward Trends?
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Fewer people drinking in pubs…
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- Figure 1: Pub/bar visiting for a drink or a meal in the last 12 months, 2003-07
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- Figure 2: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink only, 2003-07
- …and declining beer sales
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- Figure 3: Volume sales of beer, by channel, 2003-08
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- Figure 4: Distribution of beer sales, by volume, by channel, 2003-08
- Attitudes towards drinking and going out
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- Figure 5: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding drinking, 2003-07
- The ties that bind?
- Rising cost base ratchets up pressure
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- Figure 6: Trends in retail prices for selected items, 2003-08
- Drink-related disorder
- The REIT stuff?
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Disposable income and spending take a knock from the credit crunch
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- Figure 7: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, 2003-13
- Consumer confidence hit but shows slight signs of recovery
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- Figure 8: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, August 2007-August 2008
- Demographic issues for the pub trade
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- Figure 9: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2003-13
- Pre-/no family lifestage growth underpins market but opportunities elsewhere
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- Figure 10: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2003-13
- Growing youth population will boost market
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- Figure 11: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2003-13
- Growth in flexible working
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- Figure 12: Working status of adults aged 18+, 2003-07
- Less time on chores = more time for leisure?
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- Figure 13: Amount of time spent on household chores on an average working day, 2003-07
Campaigns Affecting Pubs
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- Key points
- Fair Pint
- Proud of Pubs
- The Pub is the Hub
- Best Bar None
- Challenge 21
Legislation Affecting Pubs
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- Key points
- Licensing Act – kill or cure?
- Cost or benefit: opinions differ
- Apocalyptic predictions prove unfounded
- Mixed impact
- The smoking ban
- All smoke no fire?
- Budget duty increases pile on the pressure – and more to come
- Minimum wage burden increases
- Statutory holiday pay and other benefits
- Alcohol Disorder Zones (ADZs): making pubs pay the price?
- One rule for one industry?
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Priority attached to eating and drinking out drops
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- Figure 14: Expenditure priorities, 2007 and 2008
- Distinctions between different types of outlet becoming ever more blurred
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- Figure 15: Forecast of the UK market for eating out, 2003-13
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- Figure 16: Market size of sectors competing with pubs, 2003-08
- Competition intensifies from home drinking
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- Figure 17: Volume sales of alcoholic beverages, by distribution channel, 2002-07
Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
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- Strengths
- Choice
- It’s all about experience
- Role in the community
- Unique atmosphere
- Popular choice for value meals
- Weaknesses
- Increased competition from other out-of-home venues
- Increased competition from supermarkets
- Consumer confidence
- Pressure on margins
- Saturated market
Who's Innovating?
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- Key points
- Sakura typical of convergence trend
- Queues a thing of the past?
- A better alternative to waiting at the bus stop
- All-weather measures for smokers
- Free Wii hits the spot
- Technology gives brand point of difference
- M&B shakes up draught carbonates
Market Size and Forecasts
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- Key points
- Closures and consolidation
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- Figure 18: Total pub outlets, 2003-08
- Deteriorating trading conditions
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- Figure 19: UK pub industry market size trends, 2003-13
- Tough trading conditions prevail
- Only the strong will survive
- Factors used in the forecast
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Steady shift away from wet revenues
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- Figure 20: UK pub industry turnover, by sector, 2003-08
- Is food the answer to the industry’s prayers?
- Soft drinks buck the market
- Other revenue increases in importance
- Hot beverages boost
- Machine revenues hit by smoking ban
- Cigarette vending under threat but other opportunities exist?
Market Share
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- Key points
- Mitchells & Butlers leads on sales
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- Figure 21: Leading pub operators in the UK, by turnover, 2007
- Punch and Enterprise dominate outlet numbers
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- Figure 22: Leading pub operators in the UK, by outlet numbers, 2008
Companies and Products
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- Key points
- Major players
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- Figure 23: Leading operators and brands in the pub market, 2008
- Admiral Taverns Ltd
- Financial performance
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- Figure 24: Key financial indicators for Admiral Taverns Ltd, 2007
- New developments
- Enterprise Inns plc
- Financial performance
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- Figure 25: Key financial indicators for Enterprise Inns, 2003-08
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- Figure 26: Enterprise Inns turnover, by sector, 2006 and 2007
- Responding to smoking ban threat
- Licensee profits up
- REIT conversion on hold as market weakens
- Greene King plc
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- Figure 27: Greene King plc pub estate profile, 2008
- Financial performance
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- Figure 28: Key financial indicators for Greene King plc, 2004-08
- Figure 29: Greene King plc revenue, by division, 2007 and 2008
- Managed business more than holds its own
- Pub Partners improves profitability
- Belhaven booms
- New developments
- JD Wetherspoon plc
- Coming to a high street near you
- Financial performance
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- Figure 30: Key financial indicators for JD Wetherspoon plc, 2004-08
- Bar and machine takings down in wake of ban
- Food is the star
- Capex investment continues
- Cause for optimism?
- New developments
- Marston’s plc
- An acquisitive player
- Active in both managed and tenanted/leased sectors
- Financial performance
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- Figure 31: Key financial indicators for Marston’s plc, 2003-08*
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- Figure 32: Marston’s plc turnover, by division, 2006 and 2007
- Pub retailing drives company sales growth
- Food contribution grows
- Wines and spirits up but machine take down
- Future finances looking strong
- Mitchells & Butlers plc
- Whitbread deals increase emphasis on food-led sector
- A bias towards residential pubs
- Financial performance
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- Figure 33: Key financial indicators for Mitchells & Butlers plc, 2003-08
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- Figure 34: Mitchells & Butlers plc revenue, by division, 2006 and 2007
- Food-led operations lead growth
- A well-balanced estate
- Sales mix changes significantly
- Value food does the business
- Review backs strategy
- Grounds for optimism
- Punch Taverns plc
- Financial performance
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- Figure 35: Key financial indicators for Punch Taverns plc, 2003-08
- Figure 36: Punch Taverns plc revenue, by segment, 2006 and 2007
- An evenly balanced business
- More compact managed estate increases average weekly sales
- The REIT choice?
- Recent developments
- Scottish & Newcastle Pub Enterprises
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- Figure 37: Key financial indicators for Scottish & Newcastle Pub Enterprises (Management) Ltd, 2005-06
- Whitbread plc
- Financial performance
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- Figure 38: Whitbread Plc segmental analysis, 2007/08
- Figure 39: Key financial indicators for Whitbread’s pub restaurant operations, 2007 and 2008
- Recent developments
- Other operators
- Cains Beer Company
- Food & Drink Group
- Regent Inns
- Town & City Pub Company/Bay Restaurants
Brand Elements
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- Brand map
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- Figure 40: Attitudes and usage of pub brands, June 2008
- Chef & Brewer
- What the brand is trying to achieve
- What the consumer thinks
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards the Chef & Brewer brand, June 2008
- JD Wetherspoon
- What the brand is trying to achieve
- What the consumer thinks
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards the JD Wetherspoon brand, June 2008
- O’Neills
- What the brand is trying to achieve
- What the consumer thinks
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards the O’Neills brand, June 2008
- The Slug and Lettuce
- What the brand is trying to achieve
- What the consumer thinks
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards the Slug and Lettuce brand, June 2008
- Yates’s
- What the brand is trying to achieve
- What the consumer thinks
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- Figure 45: Attitudes towards the Yates’s brand, June 2008
- Brand qualities of pub brands
- Brands tending to lack personality
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- Figure 46: Personalities of various pub brands, June 2008
- Figure 47: Personalities of various pub brands, June 2008
- Experience of pub brands
- JD Wetherspoon’s leading the pack
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- Figure 48: Consumer usage of various pub brands, June 2008
- Brand intentions for pub brands
- Consumers looking to know more about some brands
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- Figure 49: Consideration of various pub brands, June 2008
- Brand momentum for pub brands
- Yates’s in need of modernisation
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- Figure 50: Momentum of various pub brands, June 2008
- Brand motivation for pub brands
- Despite its efforts, Wetherspoon’s is still thought of as a place for a pint
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- Figure 51: Motivation for choosing various pub brands, June 2008
- Brand satisfaction for pub brands
- Pubs falling short of pleasing punters except for Smith & Jones
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- Figure 52: Satisfaction with various pub brands, June 2008
- Brand commitment to pub brands
- Lacking emotional engagement with consumers
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- Figure 53: Commitment to various pub brands, June 2008
- Figure 54: Commitment to various pub brands, June 2008
- Round up
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Managed pub operators lead the way
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- Figure 55: Expenditure on advertising, by selected brewers and pubcos, 2003-07
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- Figure 56: Expenditure on advertising, by selected brewers and pubcos, 2007/08
- Dual role for websites
- Putting on events
- Drink suppliers’ own marketing efforts
- Bacardi
- Budweiser
- Carlsberg
- Corona
- Foster’s
- Miller Genuine Draft
- Smirnoff
- WKD
How Often Do People Visit Pubs?
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- Key points
- How often do people eat and drink in pubs?
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- Figure 57: Frequency of visiting a pub to drink and eat in, 2006 and 2008
- Who are pub drinkers?
What Attracts People To Pubs?
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- Key points
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- Figure 58: Enticements for visiting pubs, 2006 and 2008
- Entertainment rocks
- Less scope now for better catering?
- Sport: men love it but big turn-off for women
- Old favourites continue to draw people in
- Appeal of table service wanes with weaker economy
- Machines – not a reason to visit in themselves
- Entertainment and sport popular among heaviest pub-goers
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- Figure 59: Most popular enticements for visiting pubs, by frequency of drinking in a pub, April 2008
- Games and specialist offerings also popular among frequent visitors
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- Figure 60: Next most popular enticements for visiting pubs, by frequency of drinking in a pub, April 2008
- Entertainment, sport and theme nights go together
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- Figure 61: Most popular enticements for visiting pubs, by enticements for visiting pubs, April 2008
- Games complement entertainment sport and themes
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- Figure 62: Next most popular enticements for visiting pubs, by enticements for visiting pubs, April 2008
What Do People Think Of Pubs?
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- Key points
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- Figure 63: Attitudes towards pubs, 2006 and 2008
- People and atmosphere promote more frequent pub-going
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- Figure 64: Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by frequency of drinking in a pub, April 2008
- Pubs play vital social role
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- Figure 65: Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by frequency of drinking in a pub, April 2008
- Horses for courses
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- Figure 66: Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by enticement to visiting a pub, April 2008
- Discerning/choosy consumers most keen on entertainment
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- Figure 67: Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by enticement to visiting a pub, April 2008
- Close association between local pubs, people and atmosphere
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- Figure 68: Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by attitudes towards pubs, April 2008
- People go to great efforts to find traditional pubs
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- Figure 69: Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by attitudes towards pubs, April 2008
What Factors Are Influencing Consumer Behaviour Relating To Pub Visiting?
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- Key points
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- Figure 70: Consumer behaviour towards pubs, April 2008
- Is the smoking ban positive for industry?
- Credit crunch bites
- Creatures of habit
- ‘Regulars’ feeling left out in the cold
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- Figure 71: Consumer behaviour towards pubs, by frequency of drinking in a pub, April 2008
- Changing nature of pubs
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- Figure 72: Consumer behaviour towards pubs, by enticements for visiting a pub, April 2008
- Tempting discouraged consumers back
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- Figure 73: Consumer behaviour towards pubs, by attitudes towards pubs, April 2008
- Smoke ban smokescreen?
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- Figure 74: Consumer behaviour towards pubs, by consumer behaviour towards pubs, April 2008
Pub Visiting Targeting Opportunities
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- Key points
- Pub visiting target groups
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- Figure 75: Pub visiting target groups, April 2008
- New Lease of Life (15% of respondents)
- Oblivious to Smoking (24% of respondents)
- Locals (22% of respondents)
- Wherever’s Convenient (15% of respondents)
- Disinterested (24% of respondents)
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- Figure 76: Pub visiting target groups, by key attitudes, April 2008
Appendix: How Often to People Visit Pubs?
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- Figure 77: Frequency of visiting a pub to drink in, by detailed demographics, April 2008
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Appendix: What Attracts People to Pubs?
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- Most popular enticements for visiting a pub, by detailed demographics
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- Figure 78: Most popular enticements for visiting a pub, by detailed demographics, April 2008
- Next most popular enticements for visiting a pub, by detailed demographics
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- Figure 79: Next most popular enticements for visiting a pub, by detailed demographics, April 2008
Appendix: What Do People Think of Pubs?
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- Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by detailed demographics
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- Figure 80: Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by detailed demographics, April 2008
- Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by detailed demographics
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- Figure 81: Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by detailed demographics, April 2008
Appendix – What Factors are Influencing Consumer Behaviour Relating to Pub Visiting?
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- Figure 82: Consumer behaviour towards pubs, by detailed demographics, April 2008
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Appendix: Pub Visiting Targeting Opportunities
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- Pub visiting target groups, by detailed demographics
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- Figure 83: Pub visiting target groups, by detailed demographics, April 2008
- Pub visiting target groups, by frequency
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- Figure 84: Pub visiting target groups, by frequency of eating and/or drinking at pubs, April 2008
- Pub visiting target groups, by attitudes towards pubs
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- Figure 85: Pub visiting target groups, by attitudes towards pubs, April 2008
- Pub visiting target groups, by consumer behaviour towards pubs
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- Figure 86: Pub visiting target groups, by consumer behaviour towards pubs, April 2008
- Pub visiting target groups, by enticements
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- Figure 87: Pub visiting target groups, by enticements towards pubs, April 2008
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