Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Bread market reached $18.5 billion in 2007
- Rising prices may lead to bargain hunting
- Fragmented market
- Innovation focused on healthy and premium offerings
- Bread consumers want it all—nutrition, taste, and value
- Nutrition and health
- Taste
- Price
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- Not just for sandwiches anymore
- Can private label fill the gap?
- Clear up the confusion
- Half baked
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- Figure 1: Households, by size, 1996-2006
Fast Forward Trends
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- Trend: Authenticity
- What is it?
- How does authenticity relate to bread?
- Bread is comfort
- Bread is convenience
- Bread is connection
- How are bread manufacturers doing?
- What should bread manufacturers do?
- Trend: Foodphobia
- What is it?
- How does foodphobia relate to bread?
- The silver lining hidden in the low-carbohydrate fad
- Consumers are confused
- What should bread manufacturers do?
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Bread still recovering from low-carbohydrate diet fad
- Sales gains driven by higher prices
- Bread forecast
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2002-12
- Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Wal-Mart sales
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Increase in dollar sales driven by price increases
- Impact of low-carbohydrate diet fad is twofold
- Expanded meal options both in and outside of the grocery store
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- Figure 4: FDMx volume and dollar sales of fresh bread, 2002-07
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- Figure 5: U.S. FDM sales of refrigerated foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-07
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Wholegrain movement rolls into new segments
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- Figure 6: New bread products with “wholegrain” claims, 2002-07
- Figure 7: FDMx U.S. sales and forecast of bread at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
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- Figure 8: FDMx U.S. sales of bread, by segment, 2005 and 2007
Segment Performance—Fresh Sandwich Bread
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- Key points
- Volume sales continue to decline while bread prices skyrocket
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- Figure 9: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of fresh sandwich bread, 2002-07
- Figure 10: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of fresh sandwich bread, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
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- Key points
- Volume declines turn around in 2007
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- Figure 11: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, 2002-07
- Figure 12: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Tortillas and Taco Shells
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- Key points
- Product innovation and popularity of Mexican cuisine drive growth
- Diet trends have lesser impact compared to other types of bread
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- Figure 13: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of tortillas and taco shells, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Bagels and English Muffins
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- Key points
- Sales rebound, thanks to end of low-carbohydrate diet craze and innovation
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- Figure 14: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of English muffins, 2002-07
- Figure 15: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of bagels/bialys, 2002-07
- Figure 16: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of fresh bagels/bialys and English muffins, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Frozen and Refrigerated Breads
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- Key points
- Frozen fresh-baked bread drives growth
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- Figure 17: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of frozen and refrigerated bread, 2002-12
Retail Channels
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- Key points
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- Figure 18: Bread purchases in the last two weeks, by channel, May 2008
- Figure 19: FDMx U.S. sales of bread, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Economic uncertainty provides opportunity for store brands
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- Figure 20: U.S. sales of bread in supermarkets, 2002-07
Retail Channels—Natural Food Stores
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- Key points
- Natural channel relies on niche, quality brands
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- Figure 21: Natural product supermarket retail sales of bread, at current and inlfation-adjusted prices, 52 weeks ending April, 2006-08
Market Drivers
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- Grocery prices are rising
- Private label is growing
- Economic uncertainty leads to more meals at home
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- Figure 22: Spending at restaurants compared to last year, by age, January 2008
- Aging population seeks healthier, pricier products
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- Figure 23: Population, by age, 2002-12
- Smaller households result in lower bread sales
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- Figure 24: Households, by size, 1996-2006
- Consumers turning to healthier products
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- Figure 25: Purchasing of bread with health claims in the last year, May 2008
Leading Companies
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- George Weston Bakeries leads market in sales
- Sara Lee fights to grow market share
- Interstate Bakeries Corp. seeks a buyer
- Flowers Foods watches sales blossom
- Bimbo USA leverages healthy eating trend
- Campbell’s Pepperidge Farm outpaces the competition
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- Figure 26: Sales of leading bread companies, 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Fresh Bread
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- Key points
- Product innovation is key to success
- Private label poised for growth
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- Figure 27: FDM brand sales of sandwich bread in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
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- Key points
- Whole grains hit the segment in full force
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- Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of fresh rolls in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Tortillas and Taco Shells
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- Key points
- Leading brands drive innovation
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- Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of tortillas in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—English Muffins, Bagels and Bialys
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- Key points
- George Weston Bakeries dominates the segment and continues to grow
- Small player Oroweat makes huge gains
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- Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of English muffins and bagels/bialys in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Frozen and Refrigerated Bread
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- Key points
- Private label makes strong gains
- Share shifts among leading suppliers
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- Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of frozen and refrigerated bread in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Qualities
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- Pepperidge Farm
- Sara Lee
- Nature’s Own
- Oroweat
Innovation and Innovators
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- Key points
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- Figure 32: Top ten companies, ranked by number of new bread and bread products, 2006-May 2008
- Wholegrain leads new products
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- Figure 33: New bread and bread products featuring “wholegrain” claim, 2003-08
- Functional bread is here
- Natural and organic bread
- Portion control arrives
- Private Label
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- Figure 34: New product claims for bread and bread products, 2006-08
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- Nature’s Own
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- Figure 35: Nature’s Own television ad, 2007
- Figure 36: Nature’s Own television ad, 2007
- Healthy Life
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- Figure 37: Healthy Life television ad, 2007
Bread Usage
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- Key points
- Usage of bread products
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- Figure 38: Usage of bread products, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
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- Figure 39: Usage of bread products, by presence of children in household, January-November 2007
- Trended usage of bread products
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- Figure 40: Usage of bread products, 2003-07
- Types of bread used
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- Figure 41: Types of bread used, 2003-07
Amount of Bread Used in Household
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- Key points
- Trended frequency of use
- Volume of bread used in household by key demographics
- Households with children eat more loaves of bread per week
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- Figure 42: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by presence of children in household, January-November 2007
- Black and Hispanic consumers eat more bread per week than average
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- Figure 43: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
- Lower-income households are heavy bread consumers
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- Figure 44: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by household income, January-November 2007
Brand Preferences for Bread
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- Key points
- Popularity of bread brands
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- Figure 45: Use of bread brands, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
Brand Preferences for English Muffins
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- Key points
- Popularity of English muffin brands
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- Figure 46: Use of English muffin brands, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
Attitudes and Motivations
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- Key points
- Purchase of bread with health claims
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- Figure 47: Types of bread purchased in the last year, by age, May 2008
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- Figure 48: Types of bread purchased in the last year, by region, May 2008
- Price is a barrier for BFY products
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- Figure 49: Types of bread purchased in the last year, by household income, May 2008
- What bread consumers want
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- Figure 50: Most important qualities when purchasing bread, May 2008
- Perceptions of brand names vs. Private label bread
- What are consumers buying? Private label or name brand?
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- Figure 51: Types of bread purchased in last year, by age, May 2008
- Value drives private label bread purchases
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- Figure 52: Perceptions of branded and private label bread, May 2008
- Consumers see prices increasing and are cutting back on spending
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- Figure 53: Perceptions of branded and private label bread, May 2008
- Consumer attitudes about health and nutrition
- Americans are trying to eat better but many are confused
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward health/nutrition of bread, May 2008
Cluster Analysis—Healthy Choicers, Penny Pinchers, and Brand Loyal but Apathetic
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- Overview
- Key points
- Health Focused Healthy Choicers
- Penny Pinchers
- Brand Loyal but Apathetic
- Demographic and attitudinal tables
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- Figure 55: Bread clusters, May 2008
- Figure 56: Types of bread purchased in the last two weeks, by clusters, May 2008
- Figure 57: Beliefs and habits, by clusters, May 2008
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- Figure 58: Beliefs and habits, by clusters, May 2008
- Figure 59: Purchasing qualities of consideration, by clusters, May 2008
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- Figure 60: Beliefs and habits, by clusters, May 2008
- Figure 61: Bread clusters, by gender, May 2008
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- Figure 62: Bread clusters, by age, May 2008
- Figure 63: Bread clusters, by income, May 2008
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- Figure 64: Bread clusters, by race, May 2008
- Figure 65: Bread clusters, by Hispanic origin, May 2008
- Methodology
- Purchase behaviors
- Attitudes about bread and nutrition
- Attitudes about bread and shopping
IRI/Builders Panel Data
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- Fresh bread
- Brand leaders by household penetration
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- Figure 66: Household sales of top 15 brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, for the 52 weeks ending 06/24/07.
- Tortillas
- Shelf-stable tortillas
- Brand leaders by household penetration
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- Figure 67: Household sales of top ten brands of shelf-stable tortillas, by household penetration, for the 52 weeks ending 06/24/07.
- Refrigerated tortillas
- Brand leaders by household penetration
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- Figure 68: Household sales of top ten brands of refrigerated tortillas, by household penetration, for the 52 weeks ending 06/24/07
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Trended bread consumption in the last week
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- Figure 69: Mean number of loaves consumed by household in last week, 2002-07
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- Figure 70: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by age, January-November 2007
- Types of bread used
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- Figure 71: Types of bread used, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
- Brands of bread used
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- Figure 72: Use of bread brands, by income, January-November 2007
Appendix: Trade Associations
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