Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
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- Main themes
- Definition
- Retail sales data
Insights and Opportunities
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- Gap between charitable thinking and action
- Breaking with tradition
- Price led advertising can exploit trust
- Green replacing white at Christmas time
Market in Brief
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- Consumer caution in December….
- …but Christmas trading is not just about December
- Spending patterns indicate higher spend than last year
- Clothing most widely purchased gift
- Home shopping won share (again)
- Trend to online maintained…
- Major grocers ahead of the average
- Christmas with a conscience
Fast Forward Trends
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- Fast Forward Trends – an explanation
- Feel-Anthropy
- Deseasonalization
- Stress Society
Internal Market Environment
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- Promotional discounts to drive footfall
- Advertising mainly price led…
- … but evidence of narrower focus of discounts
- Blanket discount days shunned
- Longer trading hours
- Extended trading hours throughout December
- … and increases security risks
- Last minute rush a feature of Christmas shopping
- Increased popularity of multi-channel shopping
- Greater confidence in online
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- Figure 1: British Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, April 2002-October 2007
- …but sizeable element still not convinced
- Greener orientation among consumers
- Greener mind set
- Increased spend on organic foods
- Safety of toys/shortage of toys
- Other factors
- Temporary shops causing concern to some occupiers
- Hamper companies kept a low profile
- PR gaffes
- Positive PR
Broader Market Environment
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- Credit crunch weakens consumer confidence
- December retail sales growth dipped badly
- Northern Rock crisis a wake up call for lenders and borrowers
- Overall indebtedness increasing
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- Figure 2: Total amount outstanding lent to individuals, May to October 2007
- Rising energy prices
- Consumer spend remained resilient until December
- Employment figures remain positive
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- Figure 3: Employment and unemployment, October to December 2003-07
- Underlying consumer spend resilient in 2007
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- Figure 4: PDI and consumer expenditure, at constant 2002 prices, 2002-12
- EHT category delivering strong product stream of ‘must have’ gadgets
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- Figure 5: UK population, by socio-economic group, 2002-12
- Population growth expanding the gifting market
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- Figure 6: Crude birth and death rates, 1996-2006
- Life expectancy increasing contributing to extended gifting networks
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- Figure 7: Trends and projections in UK population (‘000s), by age group, 2002-12
Market in Context
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- Key points
- Christmas comes but once a year
- Weakening of December contribution
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- Figure 8: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value – proportion of sales taken in December, by sector, 1995-2007
- Fourth quarter gaining in importance
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- Figure 9: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value – proportion of sales taken in fourth quarter, by sector, 1995-2007
Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses – inhibiting growth
Who’s Innovating?
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- Tech Guys on 24 hour call
- New take on advent calendars
- E-cards – green pros, emotional cons
- Online live tree ordering
- The butler did it!
Review of Christmas Trading 2007
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- Key points
- 2007 – cautious forecasts were over optimistic
- Out-turn worse that predicted
- Home shopping the biggest winner
- Household goods retailers struggled badly
- Food retailers and non-food specialists gained share
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- Figure 10: December: Year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2005/06-2006-07
- Strong fourth quarter for home shopping
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- Figure 11: Fourth quarter year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2005/06-2006/07
- December gloom but overall a good year for retail sales
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- Figure 12: Retail sales monthly change by value not seasonally adjusted, January 2006-December 2007
- Non-food retailers fought back in 2007
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- Figure 13: Annual change in retail sales value, by sector, 2005/06-2006/07
Christmas Spending Patterns
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- Key points
- Spending patterns higher than last year
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- Figure 14: Perceptions of spending compared to last year, Pre and Post-Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
- Intention not to spend did not hold
- Who spent more than planned?
- Financing over spend through debt?
- Who spent what?
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- Figure 15: Amount spent at Christmas on gifts for close friends and family, January 2007 and January 2008
- Young children get indulged at Christmas
- AB families spend over £500 as do other families
- Pre-family adults among lowest spenders
- Underestimation of what Christmas really costs?
- High spenders on Christmas gifts
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- Figure 16: Average Christmas spending on gifts, January 2008
- Who spent more than planned?
- Internet benefited from higher than anticipated expenditure
Christmas Gifting Patterns
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- Key points
- What were the most popular gifts?
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- Figure 17: Comparison of purchasing of gifts, January 2007 and January 2008
- Video games a big winner compared to 2006
- Intended and actual gifts bought
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- Figure 18: Comparison of purchasing intentions with items actually bought this Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
- Who bought what
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- Figure 19: Profile of those buying the top 5 gifts at Christmas, January 2008
Christmas Shopping Attitudes and Behaviour
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- Key points
- Attitudes and behaviour when gift shopping
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- Figure 20: Agreement with statements about Christmas shopping, January 2008
- Christmas a good time for charity appeals?
- Greener behaviour strongly in evidence
- Keener interest in discounts and deals
- Early bird behaviour and the last minute
- Spreading the cost of Christmas
The Consumer: Paying for Christmas
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- Key points
- Gift buying experience improved in 2007
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- Figure 21: Enjoyment and paying for Christmas, January 2008
- No evidence of financial constraints
- Significant and growing influence of the sales
- Who hates gift shopping and who loves it?
- Who are the bargain hunters?
- Prudence pays the thrifty
- Live now pay later youngsters…
- Danger signs for 2008
- Shopping in the sales
- Low spenders cut back but high spenders enjoy it
- Consumer typologies
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- Figure 22: Christmas shopper typologies, January 2008
- Xmas Lovers (25%) – spend, spend, spend
- Savvy gift buyers (35%) – an eye for bargain, and always at Christmas
- Scrooges (40%) – Guarding every pound
Impact of the Internet on Christmas Shopping Behaviour
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- Key points
- Online shopping continuing to grow in importance
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- Figure 23: Usage of the Internet for Christmas shopping, January 2008
- Imperfect source of ideas
- Delivering a satisfactory user experience
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- Figure 24: Christmas shopping and the Internet, January 2008
- Who’s using catalogues to browse for gifts?
- Resistance to online shopping
- Searching for possibilities?
- Internet attracting the high spenders
Retail Competitor Analysis
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- Key points
- All retail sales
- Food retailers reign in sales
- Morrisons
- Somerfield
- Waitrose
- J Sainsbury’s
- Booths
- Co-operative Group (food)
- Tesco – UK only
- Thorntons – own stores
- Majestic Wine
- Marks & Spencer – food
- Aldi
- Asda
- Non-food retailers hold steady
- Mixed goods – Non-specialised non-food stores
- Selfridges
- John Lewis department stores
- Liberty
- Mothercare – UK stores
- House of Fraser
- Instore (formerly Brown & Jackson)
- Poundland
- Debenhams
- Marks & Spencer – general merchandise
- Woolworths – group
- Beales
- Clothing and footwear stores
- Primark
- Ted Baker – retail sales (including overseas)
- Burberry – retail sales (including overseas)
- Marks & Spencer – clothing
- Next
- New Look
- Peacocks
- Household goods stores
- Furniture and furnishings retailers
- Dreams
- Dunelm
- Marks & Spencer – Home
- Land of Leather
- Electrical goods retailers:
- Comet
- Carphone Warehouse – Europe
- DSG
- DIY goods retailers
- Topps Tiles
- Homebase
- All other non-food specialists
- Booksellers and stationers
- Waterstone’s
- Clinton Cards – Group (including Birthdays)
- WH Smith
- Health and beauty retailers:
- Lush
- Alliance Boots – UK retail
- Photographic retailers
- Jessops
- Other non-food specialists including jewellers and sports goods
- Jewellers
- Theo Fennell
- Signet (UK stores)
- Sports and leisure
- JD Sports
- Blacks Leisure
- JJB Sports
- Music and entertainment retailers
- HMV – UK & Eire
- Toys and games retailers
- Game – UK and Ireland
- Non-store retailing
- Home shopping and mail order companies
- ASOS – online sales
- Littlewoods Shop Direct
- Findel (home shopping)
- M and M Direct
- Ideal Shopping Direct
- Play.com
- Otto – group online sales
- N Brown
- The White Company
- Amazon
- Ocado
- Online sales performance reported by primarily store-based multi-channel retailers
- The Perfume Shop – online
- Debenhams – online
- Marks & Spencer – Direct
- John Lewis Direct
- Sainsbury’s – online
- DSG International – e-commerce division
- Waitrose.com
- Tesco.com
Appendix
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- Abbreviations
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- Figure 25: Trend data for food shopping lifestyle statements, 2003-07
- Figure 26: Profile of food shopping lifestyle statements, 2007
- Broader market environment
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- Figure 27: Net lending to individuals, August to October 2006 and 2007
- Figure 28: Total amount outstanding lent to individuals, May to October 2007
- Figure 29: Employment and unemployment, October to December 2003-07
- Figure 30: Crude birth and death rates, 1996 to 2006
- Christmas spending patterns
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- Figure 31: Perceptions of spending compared to last year, pre and post-Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 32: Comparison of those intending to spend more with those that actually spent more, pre and post-Christmas, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups October 2007 and January 2008
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- Figure 33: Perceptions of Spending compared to last year by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
- Figure 34: Spending on Christmas gift for close family and friends, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
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- Figure 35: Comparison of those intending to spend more with those that actually spent more, pre and post-Christmas, by amount spent, October 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 36: Amount spent at Christmas on gifts for close friends and family, January 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 37: Comparison of amount intended to spend with amount actually spent, this Christmas on gifts for close friends and family, pre and post Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
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- Figure 38: Average Christmas spending on gifts, January 2008
- Christmas gifting patterns: Detailed demographics
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- Figure 39: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by demographic sub-group, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
- Figure 40: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by demographic sub-group, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
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- Figure 41: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by demographic sub-group, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
- Figure 42: Profile of those buying gifts for family and friends, January 2008
- The consumer: paying for Christmas – Detailed demographics
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- Figure 43: Shopping behaviour at Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 44: Shopping behaviour at Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 45: Enjoyment and paying for Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
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- Figure 46: Enjoyment and paying for Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 47: Attitudes to gift buying by amount spent on Christmas gifts, January 2008
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- Figure 48: Gift buying typologies by socio-demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 49: Gift buying typologies by attitudes to Christmas gift buying, January 2008
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- Figure 50: Gift buying typologies by Christmas Spend compared to the previous year, January 2008
- Figure 51: Attitudinal groups by Internet usage, January 2008
- Impact of the Internet on Christmas Shopping Behaviour: Detailed Demographics
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- Figure 52: Christmas shopping and the Internet, January 2008
- Figure 53: Christmas shopping and the Internet, by demograhic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 54: Christmas shopping and the Internet, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
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- Figure 55: Internet usage by amount of money spent on gifts at Christmas, January 2008
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