Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data collection
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- Market at a glance
- Fresh bread—the biggest segment exhibits less than promising sales growth
- Top six manufacturers account for nearly half the sales
- Supermarkets continue to sell the most bread in the U.S.
- Bread consumers
- Household bread usage by type
- Household frequency of using fresh bread
- Forms of bread used in households
- Choice of retail channels for purchases in the past two weeks:
- Changes in buying behavior
- Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer loyalty in purchasing bread
- Willingness to try new products
- Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
- Future trends
- Bread industry is positioned for more profitable operation
- Bread marketers are meeting consumer expectations
Market Drivers
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- Bread is a mature market
- Household consumption of bread on decline
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- Figure 1: Frequency of household consumption of bread, 2002-06
- Eating out trends negatively impact bread usage
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- Figure 2: Spending on dining out, by age, 2001-05
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- Figure 3: U.S. sales of QSR sandwich restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
- Growing diversity of U.S. diet results in fewer bread purchases
- Growing incidence of obesity unravels the bond between people and bread
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- Figure 4: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
- Consumers seek bread that tastes good and is good for them
- Consumers replace white bread with whole grain bread
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- Figure 5: Household use of types of bread, 2002-06
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- Figure 6: Response to various bread claims, June 2007
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- Figure 7: Reasons for eating more whole grain bread than last year, June 2007
- Bread makers reformulate breads to meet both health and taste concerns
- Natural and organic bread gain popularity
- Demographic influences
- Households with children influence the market
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- Figure 8: Incidence of household consumption of bread, by presence of children, 2006
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- Figure 9: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by presence of children, 2006
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- Figure 10: Number of children in households, 2001 and 2006
- Growing population diversity positively influences the market
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- Figure 11: Incidence of household consumption of bread, by race/ethnicity, 2006
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- Figure 12: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by race/ethnicity, 2006
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- Figure 13: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2002-12
- Bread sales through in-store bakeries experience growth
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- Figure 14: Sales of ISB bread and bagels/muffins/croissants, 2001-06
Market Size and Trends
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- Market size
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- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Wal-Mart estimate
- Market trends
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- Figure 16: New product releases, 2002-07*
- Figure 17: New bread product claims, 2002-07*
Market Segmentation
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- Introduction
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- Figure 18: FDM* sales of bread, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
- Fresh bread
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- Figure 19: FDM* sales of fresh bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
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- Figure 20: FDM* sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Tortillas/taco shells
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- Figure 21: FDM* sales of tortillas/taco shells, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Bagels/English muffins
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- Figure 22: FDM* sales of bagels/English muffins, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Refrigerated/frozen bread
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- Figure 23: FDM* sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
Supply Structure
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- A fragmented market
- A mega market without a megabrand
- Bread production is a local business
- Large bread companies created through consolidation
- The DSD system
- Difficult environment for bread producers
- Excess capacity
- Price competition
- Increasing cost pressures
- Companies and brands
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- Figure 24: Manufacturer sales of bread in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Fresh bread
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- Figure 25: Selected brand sales and market share of fresh bread at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
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- Figure 26: Selected brand sales and market share of fresh rolls/buns/croissants at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Tortillas/taco shells
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- Figure 27: Selected brand sales and market share of tortillas/taco shells at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Refrigerated/frozen bread
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- Figure 28: Selected brand sales and market share of refrigerated/frozen bread at FDM* in the U.S.,
- Bagels/English muffins
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- Figure 29: Selected brand sales and market share of bagels/English muffins at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
Advertising and Promotion
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- Interstate Brands Corporation
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- Figure 30: Wonder Whole Grain White—TV ad, 2006
- Sara Lee Bakery
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- Figure 31: Sara Lee range of whole grain white breads—TV ad, 2006
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- Figure 32: Sara Lee Thick Hearty Sandwich breads—TV ad, 2006
- Bimbo Bakeries USA
- Mrs Baird’s
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- Figure 33: Mrs Baird’s bread—TV ad, 2006
Retail Distribution
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- Introduction
- Main competition is between supermarkets and mass merchandisers
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- Figure 34: Outlets at which consumers purchase bread, June 2007
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- Figure 35: U.S. retail sales of bread, by channel, 2005 and 2007
- Supermarkets and Wal-Mart offer consumers different selling propositions
- Supermarkets
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- Figure 36: U.S. supermarket sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Mass merchandisers and other
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- Figure 37: Mass merchandisers sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
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- Figure 38: Wal-Mart store growth, 2001-06
The Consumer: Usage, Frequency of Use and Types of Bread Used
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- Summary
- Household bread usage by type
- Household frequency of using fresh bread
- Forms of bread used in households
- Choice of retail channels:
- Changes in buying behavior
- Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer loyalty in purchasing bread
- Willingness to try new products
- Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
- Household bread use
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- Figure 39: Use of bread, January-October 2006
- Bread use by type
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- Figure 40: Household use of types of bread, 2002-06
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- Figure 41: Household use of bread, by type, by age of the head of household, January-October 2006
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- Figure 42: Household use of bread, by type, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
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- Figure 43: Household use of bread, by type, by presence of children in the household, January-October 2006
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- Figure 44: Household consumption of bread, by type, by region, January-October 2006
- Bread usage analysis by cohorts
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- Figure 45: Types of bread used, comparison of working class couples and affluent couples,
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- Figure 46: Types of bread used, comparison of affluent couples with and without kids, January-October 2006
- Frequency of use
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- Figure 47: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, 2002-06
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- Figure 48: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by demographic characteristics of household, January-October 2006
- Forms of bread used
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- Figure 49: Forms of bread used by household, 2002-06
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- Figure 50: Forms of bread used by households, by age, January-October 2006
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- Figure 51: Forms of bread used by households, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
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- Figure 52: Forms of bread used by households, by presence of children, January-October 2006
- Household bread usage by brands
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- Figure 53: Brands of breads used, by age, January-October 2006
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- Figure 54: Brands of breads used, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
The Consumer: Choice of Retail Channels to Purchase Bread
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- Where consumers buy bread
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- Figure 55: Choice of retail channels to purchase bread, by age, June 2007
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- Figure 56: Choice of retail channels to purchase bread, by household income, June 2007
The Consumer: Attitudes and Behavior
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- Changes in buying behavior
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- Figure 57: Purchase of bread with various health and information claims, by age, June 2007
- Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer habit in purchasing bread
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- Figure 58: Attitude and behavior when purchasing bread, by age, June 2007
- Willingness to try new products
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- Figure 59: Interest in trying bread with various ingredients added, by presence of children in household,
- Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
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- Figure 60: Reasons for eating more whole grain bread than last year, by age, June 2007
Future and Forecast
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- Future trends
- Significant growth in demand for bread is unlikely
- Bread industry is positioned for more profitable operation
- Bread marketers are meeting consumer expectations
- Bread makers position vis-à-vis retailers is improving
- Demographic trends are favorable
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- Figure 61: Projected population of the United States, by age, 2000-20
- Market forecast
- Bread
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- Figure 62: Forecast of total U.S. sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Fresh bread
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- Figure 63: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of fresh bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
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- Figure 64: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Tortillas and taco shells
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- Figure 65: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of tortillas and taco shells, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Bagels and English muffins
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- Figure 66: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of bagels and English muffins, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Other bread
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- Figure 67: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of other bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Forecast factors
Appendix: Trade Associations
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