Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Resources used for consumer sections
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- A $10.5 billion market, moving very slowly
- More than 1,300 new cereal products launched worldwide in 2006
- Cereal market is driven by competition at home and away from home
- Kids and teens bring challenges to the market
- On-the-go breakfast options still a threat; snacking provides opportunity
- Dining out challenges
- Major battlegrounds: price and nutritional value
- Market segmentation by sugar content yields insights
- Kellogg’s leads market with a 30% share
- Advertising to kids is a hot-button issue
- Two thirds of sales are through supermarkets
- 87% of respondents to Mintel’s survey eat cereal
- Taste rules for adults; nutrition for kids
- Keeping the focus on breakfast
- Is it possible to fight the competition from dining out?
- Price matters
- But nutrition matters, too
Market Drivers
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- The importance of breakfast… and of breakfast styles
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- Figure 1: Weekday and weekend breakfast eating styles, September 2006
- Dining out competition
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- Figure 2: Dining out breakfast usage, July 2007
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- Figure 3: Sales of limited service breakfast, full service breakfast, and breakfast cereal, 2001-06
- Where’s the cereal on the menu?
- Competition from other breakfast foods
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- Figure 4: Types of breakfast food eaten, and eaten most often, in past three months, July 2007
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- Figure 5: Quaker Oatmeal Crunch cereal ad, “Hot or Cold,” 2007
- Portability and convenience
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- Figure 6: Sales of cereal bars, yogurt drinks, and breakfast cereal, 2002-06
- Children and teens
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- Figure 7: Children, teen, and adult population, 2002-12
- Two battlegrounds: price and nutritional value
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- Figure 8: Rating cereal attributes as “important or very important”, July 2007
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- Figure 9: Price per pound of select cold cereals (through FDM channels), full year 2006
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- Figure 10: Top cold cereal manufacturers, by sales and price per pound (through FDM channels), full year 2006
Market Size and Trends
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- Market size
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of hot and cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Market trends
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- Figure 12: Global new product introductions of hot and cold cereals, 2002-07
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- Figure 13: Top claims for global launches of hot and cold breakfast cereal,
- Figure 14: Top claims for U.S. launches of hot and cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- “In with the good”
- “Out with the bad”
- Functional cereal
- Natural, organic, ethical, kosher, and Halal products
- Kids’ cereal
- Packaging trends
Market Segmentation
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- Figure 15: FDM sales of breakfast cereal, by type and sugar content, 2005 and 2007
- Low-sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 16: Sales of low-sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Medium-sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 17: Sales of medium-sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Medium-high sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 18: Sales of medium high sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- High-sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 19: Sales of high sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Hot breakfast cereal
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- Figure 20: Sales of hot breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
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Supply Structure
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- Figure 21: Manufacturer sales of hot and cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Low-sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 22: Manufacturer brand sales of low-sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Medium-sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 23: Manufacturer brand sales of medium-sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Medium-high sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 24: Manufacturer brand sales of medium-high sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- High-sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 25: Manufacturer brand sales of high-sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 26: Manufacturer brand sales of hot cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
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Advertising and Promotion
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- Advertising to children under scrutiny
- Advertising aimed at children
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- Figure 27: General Mills Reese’s Puffs Cereal Ad, “Fantasy Building,” 2007
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- Figure 28: Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes ad, “Teamwork,” 2007
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- Figure 29: Kellogg’s Froot Loops Cereal ad, “Toucan Sam,” 2007
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- Figure 30: Kellogg’s Mini Swirlz Peanut Butter Blast ad, “Scientists,” 2007
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- Figure 31: Kellogg’s Eggo Cinnamon Toast Cereal ad, “Eggo Cinnamon,” 2007
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- Figure 32: Quaker Cap’n Crunch Cereal ad, “Cap’n Crunch,” 2007
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- Figure 33: Post Honeycomb cereal ad, “Which would you rather drop on your sister?,” 2007
- Advertising aimed at parents
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- Figure 34: Quaker Life cereal ad, “I only have eyes for you,” 2007
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- Figure 35: Kellogg’s Mini Wheats ad, “Hey, Good Looking,” 2007
- Figure 36: Kellogg’s Organic Cereal ad, “Nostalgia,” 2007
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- Figure 37: Kellogg’s Rice Krispies cereal ad, “Mother’s Day,” 2007
- Advertising aimed at adults
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- Figure 38: Kashi Go Lean ad, “Seven Whole Grains on a Mission,” 2007
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- Figure 39: General Mills Cheerios ad, “Lowering Cholesterol,” 2007
- Figure 40: General Mills Honey Nut Cheerios ad, “Wedding,” 2007
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- Figure 41: Post Honey Bunches of Oats ad, “Train Station,” 2007
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- Figure 42: Quaker oatmeal ad, “Friends,” 2007
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- Figure 43: General Mills Oatmeal Crisp cereal ad, “Surprise!,” 2007
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- Figure 44: Kellogg’s Smart Start cereal ad, “What’s Your Cereal’s IQ?”, 2007
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- Figure 45: Kellogg’s All Bran cereal ad, “Fiber,” 2007
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- Figure 46: Kellogg’s Special K cereal ad, “The Difference is K,” 2007
- Figure 47: Post Shredded Wheat cereal ad, “I’m Hungry!,” 2007
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- Figure 48: Quaker Life Chocolate Oat Crunch cereal ad, “Chocolate on the move,” 2007
Retail Distribution
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- Figure 49: U.S. retail sales of hot and cold breakfast cereal, by channel, 2005 and 2007
- Supermarkets
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- Figure 50: U.S. supermarket sales of hot and cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
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- Figure 51: Nature Valley cereal ad, “Try some!,” 2007
- Mass merchandisers and others
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- Figure 52: U.S. “mass merchandiser and other” sales of hot and cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
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The Consumer: Usage, Brand Preferences, and Purchase Venues
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- Summary
- Personal usage of breakfast cereal
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- Figure 53: Usage of cold breakfast cereal in last three months, by key demographics, June 2007
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- Figure 54: Usage of hot breakfast cereal in last three months, by key demographics, June 2007
- Amount of cold and hot cereal eaten per household per week
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- Figure 55: Amount of breakfast cereal eaten per week, January-October 2006
- Preferred brands of breakfast cereals
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- Figure 56: Breakfast cereals eaten, January-October 2006
- Teens and kids: usage and average amount used
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- Figure 57: Usage of breakfast cereal and amount eaten per month, kids and teens, January-October 2006
- Teens’ and children’s breakfast cereal preferences
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- Figure 58: Cold breakfast cereals eaten by teenagers, January-October 2006
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- Figure 59: Hot breakfast cereals eaten by teenagers, January-October 2006
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- Figure 60: Cold breakfast cereals preferred by children, January-October 2006
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- Figure 61: Hot breakfast cereals preferred by children, January-October 2006
- Purchase venues for cereal
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- Figure 62: Purchase venues for breakfast cereal, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 63: Purchase venues for breakfast cereal, by income, July 2007
The Consumer: Attitudes and Competitive Context
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- Summary
- Factors to purchasing cereal for one’s self
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- Figure 64: Rating cereal attributes as “important or very important”, by age, July 2007
- Factors to purchasing cereal for one’s children
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- Figure 65: Rating cereal attributes for cereal purchased for children as “important or very important”, July 2007
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- Figure 66: Rating cereal attributes for cereal purchased for children as “important or very important”, by age, July 2007
- Attitudes and opinions about breakfast cereal
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- Figure 67: Attitudes and opinions about breakfast cereal, July 2007
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- Figure 68: Ways of eating cereal, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 69: Ways of eating cereal, by HH income, July 2007
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward cereal value and quality, by race/ethnicity, July 2007
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward cereal convenience, by gender, July 2007
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward cereal convenience, by age, July 2007
- Cereal compared against other breakfast food choices
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- Figure 73: Breakfast choices, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 74: Breakfast choices, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2007
- Preferred breakfast foods
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- Figure 75: Breakfast preferences, by age, July 2007
- Breakfast away from home
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- Figure 76: Breakfast away from home, July 2007
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- Figure 77: Breakfast away from home, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 78: Breakfast away from home, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2007
Future and Forecast
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- Future trends
- Keeping the focus on breakfast
- Is it possible to fight the competition from dining out?
- Price matters—at the risk of brand loyalty
- But nutrition matters, too
- Market forecast
- Hot and cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 79: Forecast of total U.S. sales of hot and cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Low sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 80: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of low-sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Medium sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 81: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of medium-sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Medium-high sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 82: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of medium-high sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- High sugar cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 83: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of high sugar cold breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Hot breakfast cereal
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- Figure 84: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of hot breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Forecast factors
Appendix: Trade Associations
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