Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- Market at a glance
- Households with children and Hispanic households sustain the market
- Most segments exhibit decline at FDM
- Private labels—the biggest supplier in the market
- Channel changing—milk declines in supermarkets but grows in mass and convenience
- Advertising—milk as a weight loss option
- The consumer
- Nearly every household drinks milk
- Low-fat the favorite, but whole not far behind
- Types of milk consumed vary by race/ethnicity
- Parents recognize the benefit of milk, but don’t always practice what they preach
- Consumption with cereal the most likely use of milk
- Supermarkets the top source of milk purchases, but Wal-Mart not far behind
- Consumers concerned about growth hormones, but unlikely to change purchase behavior
- A third of infrequent drinkers just don’t like milk
- Functional milk—an effective strategy to compete with other beverages
- Future—increasing milk prices again?
Market Drivers
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- Mature market
- Decrease in per capita consumption suppresses growth
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- Figure 1: Per capita consumption of milk in the U.S., by type, 2000-05
- Growth in population
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- Figure 2: U.S. population and projections, by age, 2001-11
- Increased penetration in under-penetrated channels
- Quick-service restaurants contribute to the popularity of single-serve milk
- Milk growth in convenience stores and vending channel
- School policies discourage milk growth in schools
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- Figure 3: Prevalence of obesity among children aged 6-19 years, 1976-2004
- Organic milk drives growth
- Competition from other non-alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 4: Per capita consumption of carbonated beverages, bottled water and sports drinks, 2000-05
- Competition from yogurt
- Households with children influence milk market
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- Figure 5: Volume of milk consumed, by presence of children in the household, January-October 2006
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- Figure 6: Number of children in households, 2001-06
- Children gravitate towards other RTD non-carbonated beverages
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- Figure 7: Volume of milk consumed, by presence of children in the household, 2002 and 2006
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- Figure 8: Kids’ preference for milk, 2002, 2004 and 2006
- Hispanic households drive growth, but black and Asians also important
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- Figure 9: Volume of milk consumed, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
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- Figure 10: Average household size, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2001 and 2006
Market Size and Trends
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- Market size
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Figure 12: FDM* volume sales and prices of milk, 2001-06
- Wal-Mart estimate
- Market trends
- New product introductions on the rise
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- Figure 13: New milk product introductions, 2001-07
- Flavor trends
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- Figure 14: Number of new milk introductions, by flavor, 2001-07
Market Segmentation
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- Introduction
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- Figure 15: FDM sales of milk, by type, 2004 and 2006
- Refrigerated low-fat/non-fat
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- Figure 16: FDM sales of refrigerated low-fat and non-fat milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
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- Figure 17: FDM volume sales and prices of low-fat and skim milk, 2001-06
- Refrigerated whole milk
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- Figure 18: FDM sales of refrigerated whole milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Figure 19: FDM volume sales and prices of whole milk, 2001-06
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- Figure 20: Household consumption of milk by type, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
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- Figure 21: FDM sales of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Kefir/milk substitutes/soymilk
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- Figure 22: FDM sales of kefir/milk substitutes/soymilk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
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- Figure 23: Attitude towards milk and milk alternatives, by age, April 2007
- Evaporated/condensed milk
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- Figure 24: FDM sales of evaporated/condensed milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Milkshakes/non-dairy drinks
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- Figure 25: FDM sales milkshakes/non-dairy drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Supply Structure
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- Companies and brands
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- Figure 26: FDM sales of major manufacturers in the milk market in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Refrigerated low-fat/non-fat
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- Figure 27: Selected brand sales and market share of refrigerated low-fat and non-fat milk at FDM in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Refrigerated whole milk
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- Figure 28: Selected brand sales and market share of refrigerated whole milk at FDM in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
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- Figure 29: Selected brand sales and market share of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk at FDM in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Kefir/milk substitutes/soymilk
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- Figure 30: Selected brand sales and market share of kefir/milk substitutes/soymilk at FDM in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
Advertising and Promotion
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- National processors’ organizations
- Body by Milk—teens encouraged to trade soda for milk
- Got milk?—a message to mom about childhood obesity
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- Figure 31: Got Milk?, TV ad, 2006
- 24/24 milk
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- Figure 32: 2424 milk and weight loss, TV ad, 2006
- Suppliers
- White Wave Foods Company
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- Figure 33: Silk Soymilk, TV ad, 2006
- HP Hood
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- Figure 34: Hood hormone-free milk, TV ad, 2006
Retail Distribution
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- Introduction
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- Figure 35: U.S. retail sales of milk, by channel, 2004 and 2006
- Supermarkets
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- Figure 36: U.S. supermarket sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Mass and other
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- Figure 37: U.S. mass and other* channels sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
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- Figure 38: Number of regular stores and supercenters opened by Wal-Mart, FY 2001-06
- Convenience stores
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- Figure 39: U.S. convenience stores sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Drug stores
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- Figure 40: U.S. drug stores sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Vending
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- Figure 41: U.S. vending sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Natural channel/SPINS
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- Figure 42: Natural product supermarket retail sales of milk and milk substitutes, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 43: Natural product supermarket retail sales of milk, by segment, 2004-06
- Organic leads non-organic
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- Figure 44: Natural product supermarket retail sales of dairy milk by organic/non-organic, 2004-06
- Shelf stable losing lead over refrigerated
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- Figure 45: Natural product supermarket retail sales of non-dairy beverages, by storage, 2004-06
- Manufacturers and brands
- Brand sales: milk
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- Figure 46: Manufacturer and brand sales of milk in natural supermarkets, 2004 and 2006
- Brand sales: non-dairy beverages
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- Figure 47: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of non-dairy beverages, 2004 and 2006
The Consumer—Household Consumption of Milk
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- Introduction
- Summary
- Household consumption
- Household usage of milk
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- Figure 48: Household consumption of milk, 2002, 2004 and 2006
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- Figure 49: Household consumption of milk, by household size, January-October 2006
- Types of milk consumed
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- Figure 50: Types of milk consumed, 2002, 2004 and 2006
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- Figure 51: Household consumption of milk by type, by presence of children in household, January-October 2006
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- Figure 52: Household consumption of milk by type, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Volume of milk consumed
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- Figure 53: Volume of milk consumed, 2002, 2004, and 2006
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- Figure 54: Volume of milk consumed, by age of head of household, January-October 2006
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- Figure 55: Volume of milk consumed, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Household use of milk flavorings
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- Figure 56: Household use of milk flavoring, 2002, 2004 and 2006
- Volume of flavored milk consumed
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- Figure 57: Volume of flavored milk consumed, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Brands of milk flavoring used
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- Figure 58: Brands of milk flavoring used, by presence of children in the household, January-October 2006
The Consumer—Adult Consumption of Milk
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- Introduction
- Summary
- Adult incidence of drinking milk
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- Figure 59: Adult consumption of milk, by selected demographics, April 2007
- How milk is used
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- Figure 60: How milk is used, by gender, April 2007
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- Figure 61: How milk is used, by gender, April 2007
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- Figure 62: How milk is used, by age, April 2007
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- Figure 63: How milk is used, by race/ethnicity, April 2007
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- Figure 64: How milk is used, by presence of children in the household, April 2007
The Consumer—Kids’ and Teens’ Consumption of Milk
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- Introduction
- Summary
- Kids’ preference for milk and milk alternatives
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- Figure 65: Kids’ preference for milk and milk alternatives, 2002-06
- Kids’ usage of milk flavorings
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- Figure 66: Kids’ milk flavoring usage frequency, 2002-06
- Teens’ use of milk flavorings
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- Figure 67: Teens’ use of milk flavorings, 2002-06
- Teens’ frequency of using milk flavorings
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- Figure 68: Teens’ milk flavoring usage frequency, 2002-06
- Parents’ attitudes and behaviors regarding milk consumption for children
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- Figure 69: Parents’ attitudes and behaviors regarding milk, April 2007
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- Figure 70: Parents’ attitudes and behaviors regarding milk, by race/ethnicity, April 2007
The Consumer—Where Milk is Bought
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- Introduction
- Summary
- Choice of primary and secondary channels to purchase milk
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- Figure 71: Where milk is bought, April 2007
- Where milk is usually bought
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- Figure 72: Where milk is usually bought, by age, April 2007
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- Figure 73: Where milk is usually bought, by household income, April 2007
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- Figure 74: Where milk is usually bought, by presence of children in the household, April 2007
- Where milk is also bought
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- Figure 75: Where milk is also bought, by presence of children in the household, April 2007
The Consumer—Attitudes, Behaviors and Concerns
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- Introduction
- Summary
- Incidence of trying functional and milk-based beverages
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- Figure 76: Incidence of trying selected functional and milk-based beverages, April 2007
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- Figure 77: Incidence of trying selected functional and milk-based beverages, by age, April 2007
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- Figure 78: Incidence of trying selected functional and milk-based beverages, by race/ethnicity, April 2007
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- Figure 79: Incidence of trying selected functional and milk-based beverages, by presence of children in the household, April 2007
- Concerns about growth hormones
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- Figure 80: Incidence of being concerned about growth hormones, by race/ethnicity, April 2007
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- Figure 81: Incidence of being concerned about growth hormones, by presence of children, April 2007
- Growth hormones and media attention
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- Figure 82: Growth hormone awareness and reaction, by age, April 2007
- Attitudes and behaviors regarding milk
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- Figure 83: Attitudes and behaviors regarding milk, by age, April 2007
- Hormone-free more appealing than organic in terms of price
- Most milk drinkers can tell the difference between brands
- Longer-lasting product might attract infrequent drinkers
- Benefit of soy does not appear to be reaching those most at risk for heart disease
- Respondents appear open to cloned product
- Milk competing with yogurt drinks among younger respondents
- Older respondents less willing to paying more for organic
- Younger respondents trying out new formats
- Reasons for drinking milk
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- Figure 84: Reasons for drinking milk, by age, April 2007
- Reasons for not drinking milk
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- Figure 85: Reasons for not drinking milk, by gender, April 2007
Future and Forecast
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- Future trends
- Functional milk positioned to compete with other beverages
- Omega-3 fatty acids appearing more often
- Organic milk—continued strong demand met by oversupply
- Hormone-free non-organic milk promises future growth
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- Figure 86: Oberweis hormone-free milk, TV ad, 2006
- A new product boasts the taste of whole milk with none of the fat
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- Figure 87: SunMilk, TV ad, 2006
- Inflationary pressure on milk prices
- Market forecast
- Milk market
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- Figure 88: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Refrigerated low-fat/non-fat milk
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- Figure 89: Forecast of U.S. FDM* sales of refrigerated low-fat and non-fat milk, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Refrigerated whole milk
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- Figure 90: Forecast of U.S. FDM* sales of refrigerated whole milk, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
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- Figure 91: Forecast of U.S. FDM* sales of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Kefir/milk substitutes/soy milk
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- Figure 92: Forecast of U.S. FDM* sales of kefir/milk substitutes/soy milk, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Evaporated/condensed milk
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- Figure 93: Forecast of U.S. FDM* sales of evaporated/condensed milk, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Milkshakes/non-dairy drinks
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- Figure 94: Forecast of U.S. FDM* sales of milkshakes/non-dairy drinks, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Forecast factors
Appendix: Trade Associations
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- National and international associations
- Regional associations
- State associations
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