Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
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- Key themes of the report
- The loaf of bread as we know it is evolving
- Brands are lighting the tunnel of innovation
- Bread consumed less frequently
- Health and premium values coincide
- Definition
- Morning Goods – UK, Market Intelligence, July 2007.
- Abbreviations
Insights and Opportunities
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- Availability is king in a promiscuous society
- Maximising freshness
- Occasions
- Underestimating rye potential
Market in Brief
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- Value growth in all market sectors
- Taste wins out over health?
- Falling volumes alongside rising values reflect two trends:
- Trading up to premium and speciality
- Healthy boost for wholegrain
- Plant bakers dominate the market
- More sophisticated and younger adults are influencing changes
- Future outlook
Fast Forward Trends
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- Trend 1: Purity
- Definition
- Context – general observations
- Market touchpoints/implications
- Trend 2: Idol Worship
- Definition
- Context – general observations
- Market touchpoints/implications
- Trends from Mintel Inspire – an explanation
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Trading-up and higher prices
- Provenance and sophistication
- Ready to eat sandwiches remain a popular out of home option
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- Figure 1: Retail sales of sandwiches, 2000-05
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points:
- Economic background
- Shifting population and household structure
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- Figure 2: UK population by age, 2001-11
- Health – a central concern in the bread market
- Labelling
- Functional focus
- Force-fed folic acid?
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Competitive Context
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- Neighbouring bread markets grow faster than in the UK
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- Figure 3: Comparative bread markets, by volume and indexed growth rate, 2001-06
- Bread substitutes prove more popular
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- Figure 4: Competitive markets, by value growth rate, 2001-06
- Bread competes with cereal options at breakfast time
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- Figure 5: trends in retail sales of cereal bars and breakfast cereals*, 2001-06
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points:
- No crusts for kids (or on party sandwiches)
- Interest in all things healthy
- Premium quality
- Omega-3 in milk, dairy spread and eggs…now in bread too
- Packaging
- Size matters
- Functionality
- Ciabatta and wraps top the new product ranking
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- Figure 6: Top ten new product launches in each category, Feb-Dec 2006
Market Value and Forecast
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- Key points:
- Give us less of our daily bread
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- Figure 7: UK retail sales of bread, by volume, 2001-11
- On the wrong side of the diet track?
- Give us better bread…
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- Figure 8: Forecast of UK retail sales of bread, by value, 2006-11
- …and we’ll pay more for it
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- Figure 9: Average price per kilo at rsp, 2001-06
- Future trends
- Premium taste and health come hand-in-hand
- Speciality bread has more potential
- Greater consumer choice in half size loaves
Segment Performance
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- Key points:
- Volume sales down across all sectors…
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- Figure 10: UK retail sales of bread, by volume, by type, 2002-06
- …yet value sales up across all sectors
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- Figure 11: UK retail sales of bread, by value, by type, 2002-06
- White bread
- Premiumisation drives the ‘white-plus’ sector
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- Figure 12: UK retail volume and value sales of white bread, by type, 2002-06
- White plus creates new interest
- Premium white market grows
- Brown bread
- Functional benefits drive interest
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- Figure 13: UK retail volume and value sales of brown/wholemeal bread, by type, 2002-06
- The appeal of Continental and speciality breads spreads
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- Figure 14: UK retail volume and value sales of Continental and speciality bread, by type, 2002-06
- Plant bakers take a bigger slice of the bread market
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of plant bread, by type, 2002-06
- Plant bakers consolidate their dominance of the Continental/speciality bread sector
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of plant produced Continental and speciality bread, by type, 2002-06
Market Share
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- Key points:
- Top 3 dominance increases
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- Figure 17: Brand shares of plant bread, by value, 2002-06
- Warburtons and Hovis leap ahead of Kingsmill
- Regional brands hold out against the big three
- Branded bread gains ground on retailer own-label
- Brand values
Companies and Products
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- Key points
- Allied Bakeries Limited
- RHM Bread Bakeries/Premier Foods plc
- Warburtons
- Frank Roberts & Sons Limited
- Braces Bakery Limited
- Greggs plc
- Pride Valley Foods Limited
- Honeytop Speciality Foods
- Not so quiet in the own-label camp
- In-store bakeries
- Craft Bakers
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Three brands received 85% of main media allocation in 2006
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- Figure 18: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and bakeries*, 2001-06
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- Figure 19: Leading brand spend on main media advertising, bread and bakeries, 2003-06
Channels to Market
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- Key points:
- Plant produced bread increases its dominance over the market
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of bread, by source, 2002-06
- What are in-store bakeries doing wrong?
- Independent food retailers steal a march on their rivals
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- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of bread, by value, by type of outlet, 2002-06
The Consumer – Changing Habits
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- Key points:
- Adult population divided on bread lines
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- Figure 22: Agreement with the statement ‘I eat a lot of bread’, 2002-06
- White bread usage predominates, but is losing ground
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- Figure 23: Types of bread eaten most often, by penetration and % point change, 2004-06
- A health statement in itself
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Purchasing
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- Key points:
- In store bakery ranges are a major attraction
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- Figure 24: Attitudes towards bread, November 2006
- Who’s cutting back on bread?
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- Figure 25: Agreement with the statement ‘I make a conscious effort to eat less bread than I used to’*, November 2006
- Brand loyalties
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- Figure 26: Attitudes towards brands in the bread market, November 2006
- A clear overlap between premium and health
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- Figure 27: Types of bread purchased, November 2006
- Bread expectations
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- Figure 28: Types of bread purchased, by age group, November 2006
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- Figure 29: Cross-analysis of attitudes towards bread and types of bread purchased, November 2006
The Consumer – Further Analysis
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- Key points:
- Enthusiasm for different types of ‘added-value’ bread
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- Figure 30: Repertoire of types of bread, November 2006
- Consumer typologies and their bread buying habits
- Brand extensions the key to growth
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- Figure 31: Consumer typologies according to bread-related attitudes, November 2006
- Careful Chooser (16% of sample)
- Who are they?
- Next steps
- Standard Branders (50% of sample)
- Who are they?
- Next steps
- Premium Specialists (15% of sample)
- Who are they?
- Next steps
- Any Brand Will Do (19% of sample)
- Who are they?
- Next steps
Appendix
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- Introduction
- Consumer research
- ACORN
- Advertising data
- Internal market environment
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- Figure 32: Types of snacks eaten on the go most commonly, January 2006
- Broader market environment
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- Figure 33: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2001-11
- Market Value and Forecast
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- Figure 34: UK retail sales of bread, by volume, 2001-06
- Figure 35: UK retail sales of bread, by value, 2001-06
- Factors used in the forecast
- Market segmentation
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- Figure 36: Average rsp per kilo, by type, 2002-06
- Consumer 1 – Detailed Demographics
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- Figure 37: Consumption of branded vs supermarket own-label bread, 2006
- Figure 38: Types of bread eaten most often, 2002-06
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- Figure 39: Consumption of bread in the last 12 months, 2002-06
- Figure 40: Consumption of bread in the last 12 months, by demographic sub-group, 2006
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- Figure 41: Consumption of white bread in the last 12 months, by demographic sub-group, 2006
- Figure 42: Consumption of brown bread in the last 12 months, by demographic sub-group, 2006
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- Figure 43: Agreement with the statement ‘I eat a lot of bread’, by demographic sub-group, 2006
- Figure 44: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet & health, 2002-06
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- Figure 45: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet & health, by frequency of consumption of bread, 2006
- Figure 46: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet & health, by frequency of consumption of white & brown bread, 2006
- Consumer 2 – Detailed Demographics
- 2004 data
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards bread and bakery products, October 2004
- Figure 48: Attitudes towards bread, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage and detailed lifestage, November 2006
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- Figure 49: Attitudes towards bread, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage and detailed lifestage, November 2006
- Figure 50: Types of bread purchased, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage and detailed lifestage, November 2006
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- Figure 51: Types of bread purchased, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage and detailed lifestage, November 2006
- Figure 52: Types of bread purchased, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage and detailed lifestage, November 2006
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- Figure 53: Cross-analysis of attitudes towards bread and types of bread purchased, November 2006
- Figure 54: Cross-analysis of attitudes towards bread, November 2006
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- Figure 55: Cross-analysis of attitudes towards bread, November 2006
- Figure 56: Cross-analysis of attitudes towards bread, November 2006
- Consumer 3 – Detailed Demographics
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- Figure 57: Repertoire of types of bread, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage and household size, November 2006
- Figure 58: Repertoire of types of bread purchased by attitudes towards bread and consumer typologies, November 2006
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- Figure 59: Repertoire of types of bread purchased, November 2006
- Consumer typologies
- Definition of cluster analysis
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- Figure 60: Consumer typologies by demographics, by gender, age group, social grade, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Special Groups, working status, ITV region, ACORN group, technology usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage and household size, November 2006
- Figure 61: Consumer typologies by attitudes towards bread, November 2006
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- Figure 62: Consumer typologies by types of bread purchased, November 2006
- Figure 63: Correlation of attitudes towards bread and types of bread purchased, November 2006
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- Figure 64: Correlation of attitudes towards bread, November 2006
- Figure 65: Correlation of types of bread purchased, November 2006
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