Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
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- Definitions
- Research methodology
- Consumer research
- ACORN
- Other research
- Abbreviations
Premier Insight
Executive Summary
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- Christmas 2005 – a surprise present for retailers
- Economy sound but rising unemployment a concern
- Christmas an important trading period for retailers
- High consumer activity at Christmas but not everyone enjoys gift shopping
- Consumers are canny and some defer purchasing until January
- Issues for Christmas 2006
- Inquests must be thorough and address fundamental issues
- Consumer spending forecasts
- Embracing a multichannel future
- Markets change and so must retailers
- Operating and occupancy costs rising – retail selling prices falling
- Did the adspend produce the expected results?
Review of Christmas Trading 2005
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- National Statistics sales data
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- Figure 1: Percentage change in December retail sales, 2004-05
- Category reviews
- Predominantly food retailers – includes all food, drink and tobacco specialists
- Predominantly non-food retailers
- Mixed goods – non-specialised non-food stores
- Clothing and footwear stores
- Household goods stores
- All other non-food specialists
- Booksellers and stationers
- Health and beauty
- Garden centres
- Jewellers
- Sports and leisure
- Other specialists
- Non-store retailing
Market Factors
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- PDI and consumer expenditure trends and outlook
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- Figure 2: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 2000 prices, 2000-10
- Mortgage equity withdrawal
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- Figure 3: MEW as % of post-tax income, by quarter, 2000-05
- House price growth continues
- Personal debt rising
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- Figure 4: Monthly net lending to individuals, seasonally adjusted, November 2004-November 2005
- Figure 5: Monthly net lending to individuals, seasonally adjusted, November 2004 and November 2005
- Unemployment rising
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- Figure 6: Structure of the working population, by gender, 2000-10
- Changing household patterns
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- Figure 7: UK households and one-person households, 2000-10
- Ageing population
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- Figure 8: Trends and projections in UK population, by age group, 2000-10
- Socio-economic factors
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- Figure 9: UK adult population (aged 15+), by socio-economic group, 2000-10
- Competing for consumer spend
- Conclusions and prospects for 2006
The Significance of Christmas to Retail Businesses
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- Retail sales growth
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- Figure 10: All retail sales, at current and constant 2000 prices, 2000-05
- Performance by sector in 2005 compared to 2004
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- Figure 11: Annual change in sales value, by sector, 2003-04 and 2004-05
- Performance by sector – Q4 2005 compared to Q4 2004
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- Figure 12: Q4 year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2003-04 and 2004-05
- Performance by sector – December 2005 compared to December 2004
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- Figure 13: December, year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2003-04 and 2004-05
- The relative importance of Q4 sales
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- Figure 14: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value – proportion of sales taken in Q4, by sector, 1995-2005
- The relative importance of December sales
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- Figure 15: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value – proportion of sales taken in December, by sector, 1995-2005
- Conclusions and implications
The Consumer
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- Key consumer findings
- Items bought as Christmas gifts – intended against actual purchase
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- Figure 16: Which items consumers thought they would buy and actually bought as Christmas gifts, October 2005 and January 2006
- Items bought as Christmas gifts – comparison of purchasing levels in 2005 compared to 2004
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- Figure 17: Comparisons of items bought as Christmas gifts, 2004 and 2005
- Encouraging more indulgent clothing purchases
- Toys and games losing out to electronic games
- Books and music specialists suffering from changing channels
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- Figure 18: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Men below-average purchasers in every category except electrical goods and computer software/games software
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- Figure 19: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Spending on Christmas relative to anticipated trends in spend
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- Figure 20: How much consumers antcipated they would spend and what they think they spent on Christmas gifts this year compared to the previous year, summary, October 2005 and January 2006.
- Youngsters have the freedom and flexibility to spend
- Middle-aged mavericks
- Affluent twentysomethings feeling the pinch
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- Figure 21: Amount spent on Christmas relative to the previous year, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- How much people thought they spent on gifts at Christmas
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- Figure 22: Amount consumers thought they would spend and what they think they actually spent this Christmas on gifts for close family and friends, October 2005 and January 2006
- Wealth not a factor on expenditure levels
- Hang the expense, let’s celebrate
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- Figure 23: Actual amount spent on Christmas gifts for close family and friends, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Average amount spending on Christmas gifts
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- Figure 24: Average anticipated and actual spending on Christmas gifts for close family and friends, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, October 2005 and January 2006
- Purchasing repertoires, expenditure levels and expenditure trends
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- Figure 25: Repertoire of categories purchased and average amount spent on gifts, January 2006
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- Figure 26: Average amount spent on gifts, by perception of spending relative to last year, January 2006
The Consumer – Detailed Consumer Demographics
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- Figure 27: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 28: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 29: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 30: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 31: Amount spent on Christmas relative to the previous year, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 32: Amount spent on Christmas relative to the previous year, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 33: Actual amount spent on Christmas gifts for close family and friends, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 34: Actual amount spent on Christmas gifts for close family and friends, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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Consumer Attitudes and Typologies
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- Key consumer findings
- Attitudes towards Christmas shopping
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- Figure 35: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, summary, January 2005 and January 2006
- Love/hate relationship with Christmas shopping
- Financial considerations generally neutral
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- Figure 36: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Sales strategy
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- Figure 37: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Unwanted gifts can be avoided
- Shopping habits
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- Figure 38: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, summary, January 2006
- Men are last-minute shoppers and likely to use supermarkets
- Women plan and shop early
- Spreading the cost of Christmas
- Bargain hunters
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- Figure 39: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Sale days and promotions attract spend from a broad range of consumers
- Recycling unwanted gifts has broad appeal
- TV ads achieve good reach
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- Figure 40: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Use of the Internet for Christmas shopping
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- Figure 41: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, summary, January 2006
- Men more likely to use the Internet
- More affluent more likely to be Internet shoppers
- Younger adults more likely to be Internet browsers
- Younger adults above-average users of auction sites
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- Figure 42: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Service standards of critical importance to ABs
- Printed catalogues an important element of multichannel proposition
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- Figure 43: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, by gender, age, socio-economic group and region, January 2006
- Identifying targets
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- Figure 44: Christmas consumer typologies, January 2006
- Eager and Waiting (39%)
- Last-minute Loans (16%)
- Christmas Bores (45%)
- Christmas shopping clusters by demographics
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- Figure 45: Christmas shopping typologies, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
Consumer Attitudes and Typologies – Detailed Consumer Demographics
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- Figure 46: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 47: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 48: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 49: Consumer agreement with statements about shopping this Christmas, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 50: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 51: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 52: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 53: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding Christmas shopping, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 54: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 55: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2006
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- Figure 56: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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- Figure 57: Consumer agreement with attitudes regarding use of the Internet for Christmas shopping, by source of regular grocery shopping, January 2006
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Issues for Christmas 2006
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- Inquests must be thorough and address fundamental issues
- Consumer spending forecasts
- China crisis?
- Embracing a multichannel future
- Food retailers caught in online trap
- Markets change and so must retailers
- Operating and occupancy costs rising – retail selling prices falling
- Did the adspend produce the expected results?
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