Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
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- Introduction
- Other relevant reports
- Definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Breakfast cereal market: maturity shows
- Decreasing child population challenges cereal sales
- Competition from alternative breakfasts
- Traditional cereals made portable and more convenient
- Health claims and diet trends influence sales
- Sales are “cold and hot”
- Four suppliers dominate market
- With significant shelf space, supermarkets still lead distribution
- The breakfast cereal consumer
- More of the same for future sales of breakfast cereal
Market Drivers
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- Child and teen population
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- Figure 1: American population projections, by age, 2000-2010
- Children and obesity
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- Figure 2: Incidence of being overweight, 6-19 year olds, 1976-2000
- Figure 3: Graph: Percentage of overweight children and young adults, 1976-2000
- Age 45+ population
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- Figure 4: U.S. population projections, by age, 2000-2010
- Competition from other breakfast foods
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- Figure 5: Types of breakfast food eaten in the household, 2001-2004
- Consumers are indeed “on the go” more than ever
- Encouraging a healthier America
- Government’s role
- Manufacturers answer the call with new products and packaging
- Retailers do their part
- Health claims
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- Figure 6: Food & drink new product launches, by health claim, 2002 and 2004
Market Size and Trends
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- Market size
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- Figure 7: Sales of breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
- Market trends—GNPD
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- Figure 8: Manufacturers do their part: breakfast cereal product launches, by functional claim, 2002-2005
Market Segmentation
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- Overview
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- Figure 9: FDM sales of breakfast cereal, by type and sugar content, 2003 and 2005
- Cold cereal
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- Figure 10: Sales of cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
- Cold cereal with low sugar content
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- Figure 11: Sales of low sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
- Cold cereal with medium sugar content
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- Figure 12: Sales of medium sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
- Cold cereal with high sugar content
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- Figure 13: Sales of high sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 14: Sales of hot cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
Supply Structure
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- Foreign trade
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- Figure 15: Total U.S. imports of cereal* for consumption, customs value, 2002 and 2004.
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- Figure 16: Total U.S. exports of cereal* for consumption, FAS value, 2002 and 2004
- Companies and brands
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- Figure 17: FDM sales of breakfast cereal, by manufacturer, 2004 and 2005*
- Cold cereal with low sugar content
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- Figure 18: Manufacturer brand sales of low sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2005*
- Cold cereal with medium sugar content
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- Figure 19: Manufacturer brand sales of medium sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2005*
- Cold cereal with high sugar content
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- Figure 20: Manufacturer brand sales of high sugar cold cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2005*
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- Figure 21: Manufacturer brand sales of hot cereal in the U.S., 2004 and 2005*
- Major manufacturers and brands
- Kellogg
- General Mills
- Quaker Oats Company (PepsiCo)
- Kraft
- Private label
Advertising and Promotion
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- Introduction
- General Mills
- 2005
- 2004
- Kellogg
- 2005
- 2004
- Kraft
- Quaker Foods
Retail Distribution
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- Introduction
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- Figure 22: Retail sales of breakfast cereal, by channel, 2003 and 2005
- Supermarkets
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- Figure 23: Supermarket sales of breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
- Mass merchandisers and clubs
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- Figure 24: Mass merchandiser and club store sales of breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2000-2005
The Consumer
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- Introduction
- Household consumption of cold and hot cereals
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- Figure 25: Household consumption of cold and hot cereals, by age, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 26: Usage of cold and hot cereals, by race/ethnicity, January 2004–September 2004
- Household penetration of other breakfast foods and breakfast cereals
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- Figure 27: Cross tabulation of breakfast cereal (hot and cold) and other breakfast food consumption, January 2004–September 2004
- Brands of breakfast cereal eaten
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- Figure 28: Brands of cold/hot breakfast cereal eaten, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 29: Brands of cold/hot breakfast cereal eaten, by age, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 30: Brands of cold/hot breakfast cereal eaten, by race/ethnicity, January 2004–September 2004
- Cold cereal consumers
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- Figure 31: General Mills cold breakfast cereal eaten, by cohort, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 32: Kellogg cold breakfast cereal eaten, by cohort, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 33: Post cold breakfast cereal eaten, by cohort, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 34: Quaker cold breakfast cereal eaten, by cohort, January 2004–September 2004
- Hot cereal consumers
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- Figure 35: Quaker hot breakfast cereal eaten, by cohort, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 36: Brands of hot breakfast cereal eaten, by cohort, January 2004–September 2004
- Brand loyalty of cereal consumers
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- Figure 37: Cross tabulation of manufacturers of cold breakfast cereal eaten, January 2004–September 2004
- Frequency of consumption for cereals
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- Figure 38: Portions of cold breakfast cereal eaten in last 7 days, by brand manufacturer, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 39: Portions of hot breakfast cereal eaten, by Kraft/Nabisco and Quaker, January 2004–September 2004
- Kids and cereal
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- Figure 40: Prevalence of child’s favorite cold cereal in household, January 2004–September 2004
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- Figure 41: Prevalence of child’s favorite hot cereal in household, January 2004–September 2004
- Individual adult purchase of cereal
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- Figure 42: Individual purchase of breakfast cereal, by gender, June 2005
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- Figure 43: Purchase of breakfast cereal, by presence of children, June 2005
- Most important nutritional factor in the purchase decision
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- Figure 44: Top nutritional reasons for purchasing breakfast cereal, by gender, June 2005
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- Figure 45: Top nutritional reasons for purchasing breakfast cereal, by age, June 2005
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- Figure 46: Top nutritional reasons for purchasing breakfast cereal, by presence of children, June 2005
- Purchase of breakfast cereal for children
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- Figure 47: Percentage of people that buy breakfast cereal for children, June 2005
- Factors that drive the purchase decision
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- Figure 48: Factors considered important when buying breakfast cereal for children, level of agreement by gender, June 2005
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- Figure 49: Graph: Factors considered important when buying breakfast cereal for children, level of agreement by men and women (separate graphs), June 2005
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- Figure 50: Factors considered important when buying breakfast cereal for children, level of agreement by income, June 2005
- Summary
Future and Forecast
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- Future trends
- Overview
- Diet trends and health concerns—positive institutional commitment to change, but will consumers follow?
- Health claims
- Increasing convenience and portability options
- Shifts in age groups in 2005-2010 will have a small net positive impact
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- Figure 51: U.S. population projections, by age, 2000-2010
- Market forecast
- Breakfast cereal
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- Figure 52: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2005-2010
- Low sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 53: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of low sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2005-2010
- Medium sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 54: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of medium sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2005-2010
- High sugar cold cereal
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- Figure 55: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of high sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2005-2010
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 56: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of hot cereal, at current and constant prices, 2005-2010
- Forecast factors
Appendix: Trade Associations
Appendix: Simmons Cohort Definitions
Appendix: New Product Briefs
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- Aldi: Blueberry Streusel Squares
- Arrowhead Mills: Instant Organic Oatmeal
- Kellogg’s: Corn Flakes Cereal Repackaging
- Whole Foods: Organic Cinnamon Raisin Granola Cereal
- Safeway: Marshmallow Magic Breakfast Cereal
- Quaker: Weight Control Banana Bread Oatmeal
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