Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Ice cream remains among the fastest growing major snack categories
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- Figure 1: Total retail value sales of ice cream, China, 2016-21
- The impact from COVID-19 outbreak in 2022
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- Figure 2: Summary of Mintel’s scenario expectations and the impact on the ice cream market, 2022
- Figure 3: COVID-19 scenario value forecasts for ice cream, 2016-2026
- Companies and brands
- Leading players secured their leading positions, while new players are flooding in
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- Figure 4: Leading ice cream companies, by value share, 2020-21
- Dairy-based products dominate NPD, while dairy, beverage and floral flavours are on the rise
- The consumer
- Consumers of packaged ice cream highly overlaps with ice cream made on the spot
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- Figure 5: Consumption frequency, 2022
- Consumers are more proactive in trying less popular formats
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- Figure 6: Product usage, 2020 vs 2022
- Enhancing consumption experience beyond flavour is in demand
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- Figure 7: Choice factor, 2022
- Cone and tup/cup stand out for kid-friendly, while stick lacks a premium image
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- Figure 8: Correspondence analysis* – perception of ice cream, 2022
- Classic flavours attract most interest, while unconventional flavours can keep heavy users engaged
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- Figure 9: Interest in flavours, 2022
- Positive perception towards plant-based ice cream can warrant a higher price
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- Figure 10: Consumer behaviours – select items, 2022
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Leverage regional flavours to help consumers travel with their mouths
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 11: Product examples from Dreyer’s D Collection and Marco Sweets & Spices, Japan and US, 2021-2022
- Renovate with new formulations under heathy eating trend
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 12: TURF analysis – choice factor, 2022
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- Figure 13: New ice cream product launches, by claim category, China, 2017-21
- Figure 14: Product examples of ice cream with plus and functional claims, Australia, UK and US, 2021-2022
- Target at children with customised format and nutrition
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 15: Product examples of ice cream with children (5-12) claim, Colombia, Germany, Japan and UK, 2020-2022
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- Figure 16: Product example from Xiao Ke Miao Er, China, 2022
Market Size
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- Ice cream is among the fastest growing major snack categories
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- Figure 17: Total retail value sales of ice cream, China, 2016-21
- Figure 18: Total retail volume sales of ice cream, China, 2016-21
Market Factors
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- Fast development of ecommerce will further increase accessibility
- Trading up demand for dairy products peaks among in-home food
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- Figure 19: Trading up and down plans, 2022
COVID Influences (Including Market Forecast)
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- COVID-19 China context
- COVID-19 impact on the market and consumer
- Financial situations and spending confidence are affected by the resurgence of COVID
- Lockdown boosts demand for in-home foods
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- Figure 20: Food and drinks for stock up, 2022
- Market forecast
- Brands can capitalise consumers’ trade up interest with premiumised products under minimum-impact scenario
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- Figure 21: COVID-19 scenario value forecasts for ice cream, 2016-26
- Packaged ice cream consumption will benefit from increased at-home time under medium-impact scenario
- High-impact scenario may further stimulate the sales due to stockpiling behaviour and demand for comfort foods
Market Share
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- Leading players have secured their market shares…
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- Figure 22: Leading ice cream companies, by value share, 2020-21
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- Figure 23: Leading ice cream companies, by volume share, 2020-21
- …while brands from other categories show strong interest in the market
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- Figure 24: Product example from Snickers and Hema, China, 2022
Marketing Activities
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- Using ice cream to transport consumers under travel disruptions
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- Figure 25: Product example of Zhongjie 1949 X Singapore Tourism Board, China, 2022
- Figure 26: Product example of Magnum’s Destinations range, Australia, 2021
- Creating ethical brand image by actively promoting low carbon lifestyle
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- Figure 27: Product example of from NOC Xu Jin Huan and Hema x Oatly, China, 2022
- Pinning hope on cobranding to intrigue consumption interest
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- Figure 28: Product example of Maotai Ice Cream, China, 2022
- Figure 29: Product examples of ice creams with cobranded claim, China, 2021-2022
New Product Trends
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- Dairy-based products dominate, while plant-based ice cream is still niche
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- Figure 30: New products launches in ice cream, by subcategory, China, 2017-21
- Figure 31: Product examples of plant based ice cream from otaly, China, 2022
- Dairy, beverage and floral flavours receive growing popularity in NPD
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- Figure 32: New ice cream product launches, by top flavour component group, China, 2017-21
- Figure 33: New ice cream product launches, by top growing flavour component subgroup, China, 2017-21
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- Figure 34: Product examples of ice creams with flower, coffee, tea and citrus fruit as flavour component subgroups, China, 2021-22
- Herbal and grain ingredients with healthy halo
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- Figure 35: Product example of herbal and grain ice cream from Mengniu and Bright Dairy, China, 2022
Consumption Frequency
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- Ice cream consumers are highly overlapped
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- Figure 36: Consumption frequency, 2022
- Heavy users of packaged ice cream peak among females aged 25-29
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- Figure 37: Consumption frequency of packaged ice cream – heavy users, by gender and age, 2022
- Figure 38: Consumption frequency of packaged ice cream – heavy users, by monthly household income, family structure and city tier, 2022
- Impulse dispensed ice cream witnesses fast growing popularity
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- Figure 39: Consumption frequency – ice cream made on the spot, 2019 vs 2022
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- Figure 40: Consumption frequency of ice cream made on the spot – heavy users, by age, monthly household income and city tier, 2022
Product Usage
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- Cone and popsicles with crispy layer remain the most popular options
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- Figure 41: Product usage, 2022
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- Figure 42: Product usage, 2020 vs 2022
- Consumers become more explorative in trying less popular formats
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- Figure 43: Product usage, by gender, 2022
- Figure 44: Product usage, by monthly household income, 2022
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- Figure 45: Repertoire analysis – product usage, 2022
- Crispy layer can help increase consumption interest by enriching texture
Choice Factor
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- Consumers have higher requirements for ice cream beyond flavour
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- Figure 46: Choice factor, 2022
- Brand has a more influential role than price
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- Figure 47: Choice factor, by age, 2022
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- Figure 48: Consumer behaviours – select item, 2022
- Affluent consumers and parents have higher requirements on nutrition
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- Figure 49: Choice factor – nutrition, by monthly household income and family structure, 2022
Perception of Ice Cream
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- Tup/cup and cone are perceived as more kid-friendly formats
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- Figure 50: Correspondence analysis* – perception of ice cream, 2022
- Brands need to justify a higher price for stick format
- Sandwiches stand out for fun and premium, while bar/brick is more nostalgic
Interest in Flavours
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- Classic flavours attract most interest
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- Figure 51: Interest in flavours, 2022
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- Figure 52: Consumer behaviours – select item, 2022
- Develop dessert and snack flavour varieties for female consumers
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- Figure 53: Repertoire analysis – interest in flavours, by gender, 2022
- Figure 54: Interest in flavours, by gender, 2022
- Unconventional flavours can help keep heavy users engaged
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- Figure 55: Interest in flavours, by monthly household income, 2022
Consumer Behaviours
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- Most consumers not only eat ice cream under hot weather
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- Figure 56: Consumer behaviours – select items, 2022
- Plant-based ice cream is more associated with health than taste
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- Figure 57: Consumer behaviours – select items, 2022
- Parents are interested in products designed for children
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- Figure 58: Consumer behaviours – select item, 2022
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- Figure 59: Consumer behaviours – I always check the ingredient lists before buying ice cream, by family structure, 2022
Food Personas
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- Who are they?
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- Figure 60: Food personas, 2022
- Figure 61: Food personas, by generation, 2022
- Critical shoppers consider multiple factors, while emotional eaters care more about price
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- Figure 62: Choice factor, by food persona, 2022
- New trend explorers and popular trend followers show more interest in plant-based options
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- Figure 63: Consumer behaviours – select items, by food persona, 2022
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 64: Total retail value sales and forecast of ice cream in minimum-impact scenario, China, 2016-26
- Figure 65: Total retail volume sales of ice cream, China, 2016-21
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Appendix – COVID Scenario Forecast Methodology and Assumptions
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- Minimum-impact, medium-impact and high-impact scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Abbreviations
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