Table of Contents
Overview
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- Key issues covered in this Report
- Products covered in Report
Executive Summary
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- The five-year outlook for the CSDCSDs market
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- Figure 1: Category outlook, 2023-27
- The market
- Market size and forecast
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- Figure 2: Market forecast for value sales of CSDs, 2017-27
- Numerous factors driving up costs for CSDs
- Buying less CSDs in retail is most popular to save money on them
- Limited negative impact from HFSS restrictions
- Companies and brands
- Mixed performances for the Coca-Cola portfolio; Fanta is the star performer
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail CSDs market, 2019/20-2021/22
- A rise in fortified NPD in 2022; brands up the ante on adventurous flavour NPD
- Adspend doubled in 2021
- The consumer
- Overall usage of CSDs rises in 2022, helping volume sales edge up
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- Figure 4: Usage of CSDs, by type, 2020-22
- Those with less healthy finances are more frequent drinkers
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- Figure 5: Frequency of usage of CSDs, by type, 2022
- Explore textures as the next frontier for innovation; demand for natural and added-health brand extensions
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- Figure 6: Behaviours relating to CSDs, 2022
- Involvement in litter reduction and supporting DRSs will reap rewards
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards CSDs, 2022
Issues and Insights
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- Explore textures as the next frontier for innovation
- Involvement in litter reduction will reap rewards…
- …as will actively supporting the DRSs
- A need to encourage trial of CSDs made from branded concentrates
Market Size and Performance
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- 2022 volume surpasses pre-pandemic levels
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- Figure 8: Total UK value and volume sales of CSDs, 2017-22
Market Forecast
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- The five-year outlook for the CSDs market
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- Figure 9: Category outlook, 2023-27
- Volumes set to slip into decline in 2023
- Volumes to return to growth in 2025
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- Figure 10: Market forecast for value sales of CSDs, 2017-27
- Figure 11: Market forecast for volume sales of CSDs, 2017-27
- Learnings from the last income squeeze
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation and Channels to Market
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- The on-trade’s recovery gains momentum in 2022
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- Figure 12: Value and volume sales of CSDs, by channel, 2019-22
- Mixed performances across the segments in retail
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- Figure 13: Retail value and volume sales of CSDs and adult soft drinks, by segment, 2019-22
Market Drivers
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- Numerous factors driving up costs for CSDs
- Buying less CSDs in retail is most popular to save money on them
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- Figure 14: How consumers would react to having less money to spend on CSDs, 2022
- Inflation is the key concern for consumers and brands…
- …and despite government support, energy prices are still a major concern
- Rising interest rates mean that the pressure will move up to middle- and higher-income households
- High inflation and rising interest rates will compound the impact of the slowing recovery
- Consumer spending power will be curbed
- Unemployment is at a near-50-year low
- Consumers’ financial wellbeing has fallen from the highs of 2021…
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- Figure 15: Household financial wellbeing index, 2009-22
- …and most people are feeling the effects of price rises
- HFSS food and drink store location restrictions come into place in 2022
- New rules on the advertising of HFSS food and drink delayed to 2025
- Contaminants study could put people off recycled PET
- Plastic packaging tax comes into effect
- Requirements for attached caps see various brands redesign their bottles
- Scotland’s DRS to be implemented in 2023
- England, Wales and Northern Ireland all plan to introduce DRSs
- Fears grow of a ‘chaotic’ DRS roll-out across the different UK nations
Market Share
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- Mixed performances for the Coca-Cola portfolio
- Coca-Cola Zero Sugar performs strongly, Diet Coke and Coca-Cola decline
- Fanta is the star performer; Schweppes falls behind
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail CSDs market, by value and volume, 2019/20-2021/22
- Own-label is the big success story in adult soft drinks
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- Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail adult soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2019/20-2021/22
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- A surge in NPD with less than 5g sugar
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- Figure 18: Share of CSDs launches, by sugar content per 100ml, 2017-22
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- Figure 19: Share of CSDs launches, by claims relating to sugar and calorie content, 2017-22
- A rise in fortified NPD in 2022
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- Figure 20: Share of CSDs launches with a vitamins/mineral fortified claim, 2017-22
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- Figure 21: Fortified CSD launches, UK, 2022
- Brands look to support mental wellbeing
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- Figure 22: Peak botanical drinks, UK, 2022
- FUL launches sparkling spirulina drink
- Brands up the ante on adventurous flavour NPD
- Coca-Cola creates intrigue with its limited-edition flavours
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- Figure 23: Coca-Cola limited-edition launches, UK, 2022
- Fanta brings out three more mystery flavours
- More activity in berry flavours
- Candy Can launches into Sainsbury’s
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- Figure 24: Trio of Candy Can drinks launched into Sainsbury’s, UK, 2022
- More sophisticated flavour NPD in mixers and adult soft drinks
- Belvoir launches trio of botanical sodas
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- Figure 25: Belvoir Farm Botanical Sodas, UK, 2022
- Fever-Tree continues to regularly release new flavours
- M&S expands its adult soft drink range
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- Figure 26: Premium CSD launches from M&S, UK, 2022
- Many ethical claims plateau in 2022
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- Figure 27: BrewDog’s P.O.P Soda range, UK, 2022
- Figure 28: Share of CSDs launches, by claims relating to ethics and sustainability, 2017-21
- Tango teams up with The Prince’s Trust for limited-edition launch
- The shift away from the use of plastic over 2018-20 has reversed
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- Figure 29: Share of CSDs launches, by packaging material, 2017-22
- Schweppes and Cawston Press look to premium glass bottles
- Coca-Cola launches on-pack technology for visually impaired shoppers
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend doubled in 2021
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- Figure 30: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on CSDs, 2019-22
- Coca-Cola puts more focus on shared experiences
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- Figure 31: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on CSDs, 2019-22
- Coca-Cola ups spend on Diet Coke in 2022
- CCEP celebrates relaxation for Zero Sugar Zero Caffeine and Sprite brands
- Fanta champions ‘colourful’ people
- Pepsi Max and Irn-Bru put the focus on unparalleled taste
- Pepsi continues to push its strong footballing links
- Biggest campaign to date for Cawston Press
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, 2022
- Key brand metrics
- Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and Sprite see usage increase
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- Figure 33: Key metrics for selected brands, 2022
- Brand attitudes: Fever-Tree wins on perceptions of quality and innovativeness
- Weak value-for-money associations make the category vulnerable
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- Figure 34: Attitudes, by brand, 2022
- Brand personality: Fanta has the strongest fun factor
- Brands score fairly well on ethical associations
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- Figure 35: Brand personality – Macro image, 2022
- Schweppes has the most traditional image
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- Figure 36: Brand personality – Micro image, 2022
Usage of CSDs
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- Overall usage of CSDs rises in 2022, helping volume sales edge up
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- Figure 37: Usage of CSDs, by type, 2020-22
- Those with less healthy finances are more frequent drinkers
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- Figure 38: Frequency of usage of CSDs, by type, 2022
- Figure 39: Daily usage of CSDs, by age group, 2022
Behaviours Related to CSDs
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- Textures could be the next frontier for innovation
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- Figure 40: Behaviours relating to CSDs, 2022
- Take inspiration from global activity in this area
- Nitrogenated drinks can tap into interest in CSDs with a creamy foam
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- Figure 41: Examples of jelly soda drinks, China, 2022
- Inspire consumers to experiment with textures themselves
- Call out lower carbonation
- Demand for natural and added-health brand extensions
- There are challenges to overcome in these areas
- Less sweet flavours offer a natural route to cutting sugar
- Make functionality part of a holistically healthy proposition
Attitudes towards CSDs
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- Involvement in litter reduction will reap rewards
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards CSDs, 2022
- DRSs should support engagement with CSDs by combating littering
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards CSDs, by usage of CSDs, 2022
- Soda-making machines can appeal by addressing packaging waste
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards at-home soda-makers, by ownership of at-home soda-makers, 2022
- A need to encourage trial of CSDs made from branded concentrates
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Forecast Methodology
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- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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- Figure 45: Market size and forecast for total volume and value sales of CSDs, 2017-27
- Figure 46: Market forecast and prediction intervals for total value sales of CSDs, 2022-27
- Figure 47: Market forecast and prediction intervals for total value sales of CSDs, 2022-27
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 48: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail CSDs market, by value and volume, 2019/20-2021/22
- Figure 49: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail adult soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2019/20-2021/22
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