Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
- Impact of COVID-19 on cookies
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cookies, May 2021
- Packaged supermarket cookies lack growth momentum of other formats
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- Figure 3: Change in cookie consumption frequency – NET any planned increase, April 2021
- Bring the baking experience to packaged cookies
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- Figure 4: OreoID Instagram post and Sweet Loren’s BFY no-bake cookie dough
- Health aspirations are curbing cookie consumption
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- Figure 5: Reasons for eating cookies less often than last year, April 2021
- Sugar improvements can provide a health halo
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- Figure 6: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, April 2021
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- The category is expected to slow to 0.8% growth in 2021 after significant COVID-19 gains
- Cookie dough rises to meet the at-home baking boom
- Health aspirations will call for a change in messaging or formulations
- Competition from bakeries expected to heat up in 2021
- Scratch baking will remain a challenge
- Ecommerce adoption presents new channels for packaged cookies
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales gains settle but are projected to persist through 2021 and beyond
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
Segment Performance
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- Cookie dough is a small but potentially mighty segment
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies and cookie dough, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
Market Factors
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- Recent CDC guidelines indicate a return to normal is underway
- COVID-19 comfort eating could be coming to a close
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- Figure 10: Impact of COVID-19 on food and drink habits, July 2020
- The snacking landscape remains competitive
- Sugar content is top of mind
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- Figure 11: Approach to sugar and sweeteners in food, April 2021
- Bakeries expected to rebound in 2021
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
- Consumers are optimistic about maintaining their newfound baking habits, but burnout is seen
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- Figure 13: Change in baking frequency, January 2021
- Consumer confidence remains low, but gaining steam
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- Figure 14: Consumer sentiment index, February 2019-April 2021
- Ecommerce growth points to online opportunities
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- Figure 15: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Mondelēz holds 40% of market share; Nestlé and General Mills post strong gains
- Free-from cookies go mainstream but will need to evolve
- Strike while cookie dough is hot
- Brands draw from other desserts for flavor inspiration
- Blur the lines between homemade and packaged cookies
- Natural sweeteners can communicate health, preserve indulgence
Market Share
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- Mondelēz dominates market share and Nestlé joins the leaderboard
- Nestlé and General Mills invest in cookie dough and win
- BFY brands expand the cookie audience
- Brand power is worth the premium
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and dough, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
Competitive Strategies
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- Pillsbury launches ready-to-eat cookies and edible no-bake cookie dough
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- Figure 17: Pillsbury soft baked cookies and edible no-bake cookie dough
- Bakery favorites hit the aisle
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- Figure 18: Packaged cookie offerings from bakeries
- Free-from cookies go mainstream
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- Figure 19: Free-from cookie products
- Figure 20: Cookie claims, % change from 2019-2020
- Brands find indulgent inspiration from other desserts
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- Figure 21: Oreo flavors
- Figure 22: Chips ahoy! Instagram post
- ‘90s fan-favorite Dunkaroos gets a reboot
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- Figure 23: Betty Crocker Dunkaroos cookies and cookie dough Instagram post
Market Opportunities
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- Bring DIY to packaged cookies
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- Figure 24: OreoID Instagram post
- Figure 25: Marias Gamesa Instagram post
- Now is the time to expand dough portfolios
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- Figure 26: Crosstab, Cookie innovation to motivate trial, by types of cookies consumed, April 2021
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- Figure 27: cookie dough with unique flavors and BFY claims
- Move away from processed sugar
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- Figure 28: Cookies made with natural sweeteners and no-added sugar claims
- DTC cookies can encourage experimentation, add personalization
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- Figure 29: DTC cookie offerings
- Figure 30: Cookie driver attitudes, by age, April 2021
- Sub out plastic packaging with sustainable solutions
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- Figure 31: Cookie products made without plastic
- Figure 32: Individually packaged, sustainable cookies
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Cookies have high household penetration, but are largely occasional treats
- Packaged cookies are the most popular
- Homemade and online-purchased cookies see pandemic benefits
- BFY eating curbs cookie consumption
- Health is desired, not required
- Frequent cookie consumers are also swayed by other snacks
Types of Cookies Consumed
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- Packaged cookies dominate but disruptions are coming
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- Figure 33: Sweet snack consumption, April 2021
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- Figure 34: Types of cookies consumed, April 2021
- Homemade cookies give sugar-conscious consumers quality control
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- Figure 35: Types of cookies consumed, by sugar segmentation, April 2021
- Cookie doughs can bridge the income gap
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- Figure 36: Types of cookies consumed, by household income, April 2021
- Guide parents to products through occasion-specific marketing
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- Figure 37: Repertoire of types of cookies consumed, by parental status, April 2021
Cookie Consumption Frequency
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- Cookies are occasional treats
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- Figure 38: Cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
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- Figure 39: Cookie consumption frequency – frequency nets, April 2021
- Young men are the most frequent cookie consumers
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- Figure 40: Cookie consumption frequency, NET, by age and gender, April 2021
- Encourage moms to reach for cookies more often
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- Figure 41: Cookie consumption frequency, NET, parental status by gender, April 2021
Change in Cookie Consumption Frequency
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- Homemade cookies set to gain the most, but behavior remains in flux
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- Figure 42: Change in cookie consumption frequency, NET cookie types, April 2021
- Figure 43: NET change in cookie consumption frequency, NET cookie types, April 2021
- Position cookie doughs as the shortcut cookie mix
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- Figure 44: Change in home baked cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
- DTC packaged cookies can help the category avoid stagnation
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- Figure 45: Change in packaged cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
- Prepared cookies faced challenges, but are set to recover soon
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- Figure 46: Change in prepared cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
- The clock is ticking on increasing women’s engagement
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- Figure 47: Change in prepared cookie consumption frequency, NET, April 2021
Reasons for Eating Cookies More Often
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- At-home comfort eating drives increased consumption during pandemic
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- Figure 48: Reasons for eating cookies more often than last year, April 2021
Reasons for Eating Cookies Less Often
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- Health concerns drive consumers away from cookies
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- Figure 49: Reasons for eating cookies less often than last year, April 2021
Cookie Motivations
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- Cookies still have to be indulgent, craveable
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- Figure 50: Cookie motivations, April 2021
- Get portable and functional for younger consumers
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- Figure 51: Cookie motivations, by age, April 2021
- Figure 52: Cookie product examples
- Women driven to cookies for fun, men for function
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- Figure 53: Cookie motivations, by gender, April 2021
Cookie Attitudes
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- Health isn’t an expectation, but it is desired
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- Figure 54: Cookie health attitudes, April 2021
- Parents are mindful about cookie health
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- Figure 55: Cookie health attitudes, by parental status, April 2021
- LTOs may be worth the investment
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- Figure 56: Cookie driver attitudes, April 2021
- Figure 57: Product examples of limited time cookie offerings
Cookie Replacement
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- Consumers are open to swapping sweet treats for nature’s candy
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- Figure 58: Cookie replacement, April 2021
- Frequent cookie eaters swayed by other snacks
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- Figure 59: Cookie replacement, by cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
Cookie Innovation to Motivate Trial
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- Pair exciting flavors with BFY ingredients
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- Figure 60: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, April 2021
- Salty flavors can add adventure and reduce the sugar
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- Figure 61: Cookies with salty ingredients
- Figure 62: TURF Analysis – cookie innovation to motivate trial, April 2021
- Many routes to enticing core users
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- Figure 63: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, by cookie consumption frequency segmentation, April 2021
- Women are motivated by BFY improvements
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- Figure 64: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, by gender, April 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- TURF methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Sugar Segmentation
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- Indifferent Eaters
- Natural Sweet Tooths
- Sugar Avoiders
- Low/No Seekers
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- Figure 65: Sugar segmentation, April 2021
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 67: Average household spending on cookies and cookie dough, 2016-21
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie dough, by segment, at current prices, 2019 and 2021 (est)
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by value and volume, 2016-20
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by value and volume, 2016-20
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 75: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie dough, by channel, at current prices, 2016-21
- Figure 76: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie dough, by channel, at current prices, 2019 and 2021 (est)
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- Figure 77: US supermarket sales of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-21
- Figure 78: US sales of cookies and cookie dough through other retail channels, at current prices, 2016-21
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Appendix – Brand and Company
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- Figure 79: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
- Figure 80: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
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