Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The market needs two years to buffer out the disruption
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- Figure 1: Central forecast for value sales of bakery houses, 2015-2025
- Volume shrank to a total outlet number of around 450,000
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- Figure 2: Change in the number of bakery houses, 2019-2020
- Figure 3: Top ten cities by the number of bakery houses, 2020
- Companies and brands
- Fragmented market with leading players scrambling to secure concentration
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- Figure 4: Store numbers & volume share of the leading bakery house brands, 2019-2020
- Sight attraction prompts bakery houses to spruce up differently
- Novel dairy products and plant-based ingredients pick up the trends
- The consumer
- Fixed channel selection with an exception of O2O retailers
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- Figure 5: Purchase channel, 2020-21
- Fresh bakery dabbles in a bigger market to compete
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- Figure 6: Product preference at different channels, February 2021
- Wide compatibility with various occasions
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- Figure 7: Consumption occasion, February 2021
- Distinctive perceptions hint usage segmentation
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- Figure 8: Product perception, February 2021
- Quality ingredients with functional perks able to justify high price
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- Figure 9: Premiumisation trigger, February 2021
- Behavioural difference suggests specialised trajectory for specialty and comprehensive bakery houses
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards bakery products and bakery houses, by “I prefer bakery houses that sell specialty products over those that sell a wide range of products”, February 2021
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards bakery products and bakery houses, by “I prefer bakery houses that sell specialty products over those that sell a wide range of products”, February 2021
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Bakery houses upgrade their menus to stretch into holistic meal offering
- The facts
- The implications
- Enhance bakery houses’ function in “service” and intensify brand awareness to differentiate
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 12: DIY toast painting at POSTERN
- Figure 13: Self-toasting toast at Our Bakery
- Specialty bakery houses need to stay exuberantly proactive to survive
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 14: Collaborative toast between Daddy Sweety and Hema
- Figure 15: Saturn bird’s coffee box recycling program
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Shattered market will rebound to the pre-COVID level in the next two years
- Fresh bakery’s competition landscape broadens
- Bakery houses look at additional revenue pathways
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 magnified the challenges for the industry
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- Figure 16: Central forecast for value sales of bakery houses, 2015-2025
- The number of eliminated stores overtakes the new one
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- Figure 17: Change in the number of bakery houses, 2019-2020
- Figure 18: Top ten cities by the number of bakery houses, 2020
Market Factors
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- Short shelf-life packaged bakery poses a threat and hints transformation for fresh bakery
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- Figure 19: Hema’s Freshippo Bakery
- Bakery houses experiment with different side offerings, exploring new revenue streams
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- Figure 20: Lady Pineapple’s brunch offering
- Figure 21: Sunflour’s brunch and gelato offerings
- Figure 22: Paris Baguette’s lactobacillus tea drinks
- Rising home baking brings mixed news
- Functionality and nutrition are the key to premiumisation
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Dominant brands have secured consolidation
- Bakery houses use different styles to pique interest
- Novel dairy products applied to bakery
Market Share
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- Holiland contributed the most to leading players’ consolidation
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- Figure 23: Store numbers & volume share of the leading bakery house brands, 2019-2020
Marketing Strategies
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- Highlight nutritional add-ins to appeal to health-conscious consumers
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- Figure 24: Short shelf-life packaged bakery from Hema daily fresh product line
- Bakery houses of unique ornamental styles resonate among consumers
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- Figure 25: Bakery houses of nostalgic style
- Figure 26: Japanese-style bakery houses
- Figure 27: Examples of representative Japanese bakeries
- Sustainable disposal of leftover bakery convinces consumers of freshness and environmental awareness
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- Figure 28: Free overnight bakery giveaway at Whole Wheat
- Figure 29: Buy one and get one for free after 5 pm at Da Giuliano
New Product Trends
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- Upgraded menu of Chinese- and Western-styled bakery foods
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- Figure 30: Examples of bakery houses’ Chinese-style bakery/pastry offerings
- Fermented and plant-based dairy witnesses a rise of usage in bakery
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- Figure 31: Examples of bakery products containing fermented dairy ingredients
- Figure 32: Oat milk toast from Tous Les Jours & Oatly
- Products of regional traits hook consumers favouring exoticness
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- Figure 33: Examples of bakery products of regional traits
- Bakery houses dabble in packaged bakery offering to replicate fresh bakery eating experience
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- Figure 34: Uncle.Z Bakery ‘s online store on Taobao & WeChat
- Figure 35: Collaborative toast between Daddy Sweety and Hema
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- O2O channels cast a revolutionary impact of fresh bakery purchase
- Compatibility of bakery products gets further ramped up
- Fortified nutrients have the best shot at triggering higher spending
Purchase Channel
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- Established bakery consumption habits in the post-COVID-19 era
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- Figure 36: Purchase channel, 2020-2021
- O2O retailers squeezing the shares of fresh bakery
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- Figure 37: Consumption incidence gap in the listed channels, 2020-2021
- Growing acceptance means abundant interest and exploration while low loyalty
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- Figure 38: Purchase channel of bakery products – repertoire analysis, February 2021 & February 2020
Product Preference at Different Channels
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- Blurred boundary between fresh and packaged bakery products
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- Figure 39: Product preference at different channels, February 2021
- Unconventional buyers at bakery chains and O2O retailers
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- Figure 40: Product preference at bakery chains – “short shelf-life packaged bakery products”, by gender and age and by marital status, February 2021
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- Figure 41: product preference at O2O retailers – “fresh unsealed bakery products”, by gender and age and by marital status, February 2021
Consumption Occasion
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- Diverse usage of bakery products
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- Figure 42: Consumption occasion, February 2021
- Breakfast bakery eaters fall for “additional” instead of “minus” claims
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- Figure 43: Premiumisation trigger, by consumption occasion – “have had bakery products for breakfast”, February 2021
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- Figure 44: Consumption trends, by consumption occasion – “have had bakery products for breakfast”, February 2021
- Figure 45: Consumption trends – “eaten more or about the same”, gap between those who have had bakery products for breakfast and those who haven’t, February 2021
- Bakery products applied to more consumption occasions
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- Figure 46: Consumption occasion – repertoire analysis, February 2021 & February 2020
Product Perception
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- Toast can become a staple alternative while tarts and Swiss roll leverage indulgence
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- Figure 47: Product perception, February 2021
- Hard bread and cake are polarised in specific perceptions
- Mid-aged females & high income earners credit hard bread for healthy
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- Figure 48: Product perception – “hard bread is healthy”, by gender and age & monthly personal income, February 2021
- Mid-aged consumers & families with kids think cake is satiable in particular
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- Figure 49: Product perception – “cake is satiable”, by age & marital status, February 2021
Premiumisation Trigger
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- Resort to ingredients and thereby “additional” claims to premiumise and differentiate
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- Figure 50: Premiumisation trigger, February 2021
- Mid-aged consumers focus on ingredients while young consumers are flavour-/display-driven
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- Figure 51: Premiumisation trigger, by age, February 2021
Attitudes towards Bakery Products and Bakery Houses
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- Well-educated domestic bakery consumers with distinctive features
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- Figure 52: Attitudes towards bakery products and bakery houses, February 2021
- Attitudinal divergence between specialty store- and comprehensive store-oriented consumers
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- Figure 53: Attitudes towards bakery products and bakery houses, by “I prefer bakery houses that sell specialty products over those that sell a wide range of products”, February 2021
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- Figure 54: Attitudes towards bakery products and bakery houses, by “I prefer bakery houses that sell specialty products over those that sell a wide range of products”, February 2021
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 55: Forecast for value sales of bakery houses, China, 2015-2025
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Abbreviations
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