Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on household care
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on household care, 20 April 2021
- The market
- The pandemic provides a major boost for household care
- The future of the market depends on rate of return to normality
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- Figure 2: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the household care sector (prepared on 12 April 2021), 2015-25
- The consumer
- Consumers have sought to take control of their home
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- Figure 3: Changes in behaviours as a result of COVID-19, March 2021
- The virus encourages higher spend on individual products
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- Figure 4: Change in price paid for household care products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- A longer-term cleaning boost from the pandemic
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- Figure 5: Expectations of future behaviour after the pandemic, March 2021
Category Winners and Losers
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- People protect themselves with germ-killing cleaners
- Consumers forced to clean dishes more often
- Kitchen roll’s hygiene and versatility drives sales
- Big-name brands leverage their trust
- Laundry detergents struggle to create the same growth
COVID-19 Consumer Timeline
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- Phase 1 – January-March: Consumers go into lockdown
- Phase 2 – March-June: Adapting to life in lockdown
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- Figure 6: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 30 January-31 August 2020
- Phase 3 – Emerging from the initial lockdown
- Phase 4 – Rise of the next wave
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- Figure 7: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, 30 January 2020-28 March 2021
- Phase 5 – January-March: Winter lockdown and vaccine roll-out
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- Figure 8: Cumulative number of first and second vaccines delivered in the UK, 10 January-7 April 2021
- Phase 6 – March onwards: The roadmap out of lockdown
The Post-Pandemic Outlook for Household Care
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- Household care will still be a need-based category for most
- Household care brands will branch further away from functionality
- The importance of the home has been elevated
- Promote productivity in the home environment
- Non-hygiene health concerns will re-emerge
- Focus on air quality will shape product purchases
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- Figure 9: Examples of household care launches with VOC-free claims, 2019-21
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- Figure 10: SC Johnson Glade Spring limited-edition launches, 2021
- Consumers are more educated and engaged than ever
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- Figure 11: Change in behaviours since the COVID-19 outbreak, August 2020
- Brands have built a position of authority to enact change
- A willingness to shop online will create opportunities
- Conscious consumerism will influence purchases
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards sustainability in household care, March 2021
The Economic Impact
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- A record drop in economic activity…
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- Figure 13: Annual percentage change in GDP (forecast), 2007-25
- …as COVID-19 restrictions caused a severe fall in spending
- Consumer spending is heavily dependent on the path of the pandemic
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- Figure 14: Household consumption index (scenario forecasts), 2019-25
- Furloughs have saved millions of jobs…
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- Figure 15: Number of employments furloughed, time series, March 2020-February 2021
- …but unemployment is forecast to rise when state support ends
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- Figure 16: Quarterly unemployment rate (forecast), Q1 2008-Q1 2026
- Under-25s have taken the brunt of COVID-19 job losses
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- Figure 17: Change in number of employees on payroll, by age, February 2021 vs February 2020
Market Size and Performance
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- Impact of COVID-19 on household care
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- Figure 18: Impact of COVID-19 on household care market, in short, medium and long term, 20 April 2021
- The pandemic provided a major boost for household care
- Consumers followed a two-stage process
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- Figure 19: Value of the UK household care market (prepared on 12 April 2021), 2015-20
- Brands adapted well to meeting product demand
- The majority of categories experienced sales growth
Market Forecast
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- 2020 is highly likely to be the peak for household care sales
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- Figure 20: UK forecast for the value of the UK household care market, at current prices (prepared on 12 April 2021), 2015-25
- A gradual return to near pre-pandemic levels
- Pandemic will have a long-lasting impact on the market
- Decline will level off by 2024
COVID-19 Scenario Performance
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- Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
- Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
- More disruption could increase sales beyond 2020 numbers
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- Figure 21: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the household care sector (prepared on 12 April 2021), 2015-25
- Extended disruption will lead to increased sales for longer
- Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario and central scenario converge by 2022
- A shift back to growth by 2024 in all scenarios
- COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
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- Figure 22: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the household care market, April 2021
Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Health
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- Exposure anxieties align with case numbers
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- Figure 23: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Exposure anxiety typically higher among over-55s
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- Figure 24: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) towards being exposed to the coronavirus, by age, 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
- Middle-age band fear transmitting virus
Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Lifestyles
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- Concerns about lifestyles impact outweigh exposure fears
- Consumers react to unprecedented lifestyle restrictions
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- Figure 25: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
- Lifestyle impact concerns high across all age groups
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- Figure 26: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) about how the outbreak could impact their lifestyle, by age, 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
Impact on Household Finances
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- Financial wellbeing has hit new heights despite the crisis…
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- Figure 27: The financial wellbeing index, January 2015- February 2021
- …but many still feel worse off than a year ago
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- Figure 28: Changes in household finances, January 2015- February 2021
- One in six have been furloughed at least once
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- Figure 29: Impact of COVID-19 on employment and working patterns, February 2021
- Income trends point to a two-track crisis and recovery
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- Figure 30: Impact of COVID-19 on personal income, February 2021
- Cuts to discretionary spending have kept household finances afloat…
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- Figure 31: Impact of COVID-19 on household debts and spending, February 2021
- …and led to a record savings boost
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- Figure 32: Impact of COVID-19 on the value of savings in different products, February 2021
- Most are optimistic about the year ahead…
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- Figure 33: The financial confidence index, January 2015-February 2021
- …and looking forward to getting back to experiences
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- Figure 34: Financial priorities when COVID-19 is no longer a concern, February 2021
How the Pandemic Shaped Consumer Behaviour
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- Using more household care products
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- Figure 35: Change in frequency of cleaning tasks since the outbreak of COVID-19, September 2020
- A prolonged increased spend on household care products
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- Figure 36: Spending on different categories compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, 1-12 April 2021
- Antibacterial still in demand despite the virus threat
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- Figure 37: Preferred cleaning product attributes, March 2021
- Consumers have begun prioritising health
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- Figure 38: Planned changes to behaviours after the pandemic, March 2021
Changes in Household Care Behaviours from COVID-19
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- Consumers have sought to take control of their home environment
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- Figure 39: Changes in behaviours as a result of COVID-19, March 2021
- Build on the involvement of children in chores
- Reassert focus on the gender gap, but support everybody
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- Figure 40: Consumers feeling overwhelmed with chores, by gender and age, March 2021
- Tap into the new appreciation of the home
- Build on the trust in household care brands
Spend on Household Care Products
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- The virus encourages higher spend on individual products
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- Figure 41: Change in price paid for household care products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- Greater focus on efficacy during the pandemic
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- Figure 42: Consumers spending more on household care products, by level of concern about being exposed to the virus, March 2021
- Financial priorities have shifted towards homecare
- A window of opportunity to engage more experimental youth
Expectations of Future Household Care Behaviours
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- A longer-term cleaning boost from the pandemic
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- Figure 43: Expectations of future behaviour after the pandemic, March 2021
- Development of germ-management techniques
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- Figure 44: SC Johnson’s Mr Muscle Probiotic drain cleaner, 2021
- The shift online will be permanent for some
- Prepare for a return to the eco drive
- Own-label has some work to do to turn things around
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology
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- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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- Figure 45: Forecast for the value of the UK household care market, 2020-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 46: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast (prepared 12 March 2021), 2020-24
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions
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- Scenario performance
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- Figure 47: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK household care market, 2015-25
- Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
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