Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on national newspapers
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on national newspapers, prepared 20 February 2021
- The market
- 2020 saw a 15% decline in print circulation
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- Figure 2: Market size for UK national newspaper print circulation (prepared on 5 March 2021), 2015-25
- Battle in Australia highlights ongoing tension between tech giants and news publishers
- Some publishers criticised for cutting margins for retailers
- Companies and brands
- Introductions from tech giants offer more support to news publishers
- National newspapers expand into more media sectors
- The consumer
- Four in 10 reading online newspapers more
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- Figure 3: Change in online national newspaper readership, November 2020
- People have been buying fewer print titles
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- Figure 4: National newspaper print readership, November 2020
- Figure 5: Print national newspaper purchases, November 2020
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- Figure 6: Change in purchasing of print national newspapers, November 2020
- Altered lifestyle is the primary reason people are buying fewer print newspapers
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- Figure 7: Reasons bought fewer print national newspapers, November 2020
- Long-term impact on print purchasing is a mixed bag
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- Figure 8: Expectations of purchasing print national newspapers in the future, November 2020
- Most are satisfied with national newspaper reporting on the outbreak
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- Figure 9: Satisfaction with COVID-19 reporting in national newspapers, November 2020
- Growth in different devices used for news
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- Figure 10: Devices used for online news, November 2017-20
- BBC’s dominance boosted by pandemic
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- Figure 11: Online news sources, November 2017-20
- Many older people are open to getting a digital subscription
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- Figure 12: Online national newspaper behaviour, November 2020
- People are keeping with their print newspaper when they subscribe online
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- Figure 13: Reasons for paying for an online national newspaper, November 2020
- COVID-19 dominates the time people have spent reading online national newspapers
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- Figure 14: National newspaper topics, November 2020
Issues and Insights
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- As COVID-19 accelerates print declines, national newspaper publishers explore more multimedia opportunities
- Redefining a national newspaper
- Exploring digital subscription options
- Effectively targeting discounts
- Netflix-for-newspapers won’t work but smaller bundles could
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Print circulation declines 15% in 2020
- The digital advertising market is rebounding well but the print advertising market will continue to struggle
- More regulation expected on tech giants to help news publishers
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 hastens print decline as publishers put more focus on digital subscriptions
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- Figure 15: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on national newspapers, prepared 20 February 2021
- 2020 saw a 15% decline in print circulation
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- Figure 16: Market size for UK national newspaper print circulation (prepared on 5 March 2021), 2015-25
- Figure 17: Market size for UK national newspaper print circulation (prepared on 5 March 2021), 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 18: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast (prepared on 5 March 2021), 2015-25
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 19: Trends in total UK print national newspaper circulation, 2005-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- The CMA wants stronger regulations to be introduced to curb dominance of Google and Facebook
- Battle in Australia highlights ongoing tension between tech giants and news publishers
- What the conflict means for the UK
- Google defends algorithm
- Many titles increase cover prices
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- Figure 20: Basic UK cover price for national newspapers, December 2019-20
- Some publishers criticised for cutting margins for retailers
- Digital advertising market to rebound well
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- Figure 21: Forecast of digital advertising expenditure in the UK (prepared September 2020), 2015-25
- Advertisers invest less in print
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- Figure 22: Advertising spend on print press, 2017-20
- Newspaper deliveries boom during pandemic
- Duke and Duchess of Sussex win cases against UK newspapers
- News UK appeals to Supreme Court to claim digital newspapers should have been VAT exempt for years
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- National titles see large drops in print circulation but report strong growth in browser and subscription figures
- Tech giants make introductions offering greater support to news publishers
- National newspapers explore radio and TV
Market Share
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- Significant circulation declines across national titles
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- Figure 23: Daily print national newspapers’ average print circulation per issue, 2017-20
- Sunday titles’ circulation declines slightly better than dailies
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- Figure 24: Sunday print national newspapers’ average print circulation per issue, 2017-20
- There was significant digital growth in 2020
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- Figure 25: National newspaper digital editions/publications, Jan-Dec 2020
- Guardian still way out in front on social media
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- Figure 26: National newspapers’ social-media followings, 15 February 2020
- Results from national newspaper publishers
- Reach reports recovery in digital advertising revenue
- Mail Online a bright spot for DMGT
- The Telegraph returns furlough money as digital subscribers surge
- Guardian cuts jobs but reports growth in subscribers and contributors
- News UK’s revenue drops significantly in first half of 2020
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Introductions from tech giants offer more support to news publishers
- New Facebook News platform introduced in the UK
- Google launches curated news feed service
- National newspapers expand into more media sectors
- Times Radio launches
- News UK moves into TV as the UK’s TV news market is set for shake-up
- The Independent launches Independent TV
- Newspapers make the environment a greater priority
- Guardian
- Daily Express
- Financial Times
- Readly adds more national newspapers
- Joint digital subscription used by Financial Times to encourage new subscribers
- Newspapers introduce virtual events, which have potential beyond the pandemic
- Scottish Sun launches a children’s version highlighting potential gap in the market
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Significant drop in adspend by national newspaper publishers
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- Figure 27: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on national newspapers, 2017-20
- Figure 28: Top 10 advertisers in the national newspaper market, 2017-20
- Adspend shifted towards TV and Digital
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- Figure 29: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on national newspapers, by media types, 2017-20
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 30: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2021
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 31: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2021
- Brand attitudes: The Times is associated with quality
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- Figure 32: Attitudes, by brand, January 2021
- Brand personality: The Guardian is considered the most ethical
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- Figure 33: Brand personality – macro image, January 2021
- The Daily Mail is strongly associated with being biased
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- Figure 34: Brand personality – micro image, January 2021
- Brand analysis
- The Guardian readers are the most satisfied
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- Figure 35: User profile of the Guardian, January 2021
- The Times stands out the most to people
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- Figure 36: User profile of The Times, January 2021
- The i still has comparatively low awareness
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- Figure 37: User profile of the i, January 2021
- The Daily Telegraph has a less positive brand image than other quality titles
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- Figure 38: User profile of The Daily Telegraph, January 2021
- People are more likely to think the Daily Mail offers good value than other titles
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- Figure 39: User profile of the Daily Mail, January 2021
- The Daily Express is well behind the Daily Mail for trust
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- Figure 40: User profile of the Daily Express, January 2021
- The Sun is viewed as the most entertaining but intrusive
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- Figure 41: User profile of The Sun, January 2021
- Focus on satire could help the Daily Star to stand out
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- Figure 42: User profile of the Daily Star, January 2021
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- The pandemic has boosted online readership and most have been satisfied with reporting on the topic
- Many are willing to subscribe to national newspapers online
- People are buying fewer print newspapers but some remain committed to the format
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Four in 10 reading online newspapers more
- Daily Star’s satire likely to have been particularly appreciated
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- Figure 43: Change in online national newspaper readership, November 2020
- People have been buying fewer print titles
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- Figure 44: National newspaper print readership, November 2020
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- Figure 45: Print national newspaper purchases, November 2020
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- Figure 46: Change in purchasing of print national newspapers, November 2020
- Altered lifestyle is the primary reason people are buying fewer print newspapers
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- Figure 47: Reasons bought fewer print national newspapers, November 2020
- Long-term impact on print purchasing is a mixed bag
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- Figure 48: Expectations of purchasing print national newspapers in the future, November 2020
- Most are satisfied with national newspaper reporting on the outbreak
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- Figure 49: Satisfaction with COVID-19 reporting in national newspapers, November 2020
Online News Sources and Devices
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- Growth in online news consumption and devices used will aid multimedia expansion
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- Figure 50: Devices used for online news, November 2017-20
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- Figure 51: Repertoire of devices used for online news, November 2017-20
- BBC’s dominance boosted by pandemic
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- Figure 52: Online news sources, November 2017-20
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- Figure 53: Repertoire of online news sources, November 2020
- Collaboration with new news platforms could help increase penetration
Online National Newspaper Behaviour
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- Many older people are open to getting a digital subscription
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- Figure 54: Online national newspaper behaviour, November 2020
- Netflix-for-newspapers is unlikely to work
- Smaller bundles of newspapers could be a better option than larger news subscription services
- Reducing the gender gap in subscription figures
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- Figure 55: Online national newspaper behaviour, by gender, November 2020
- Newspapers can feel confident about making registration mandatory
- Having publisher-based, rather than title-based registration walls
Reasons for Paying for an Online National Newspaper
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- People are keeping with their print newspaper when they subscribe online
- Discounts are more important than ever
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- Figure 56: Reasons for paying for an online national newspaper, November 2020
- Many national titles likely to have built trust during the pandemic boosting subscriber numbers
- Opinion content is an important tool to get people to subscribe
National Newspaper Topics
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- COVID-19 dominates the time people have spent reading online national newspapers
- National newspapers need to be ready to lessen their COVID-19 coverage
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- Figure 57: National newspaper topics, November 2020
- Greater coverage of international elections could boost engagement
- As COVID-19 shifts people’s priorities, lifestyle content gains importance
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- Figure 58: National newspaper topics, by gender, November 2020
- For young men sport is less of a priority
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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