Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on still bottled water and sparkling water
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on bottled water and sparkling water, March 2021
- Challenges
- Interest in sustainability threatens bottled water’s future
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- Figure 3: Water attitudes, any agree, by generation, December 2020
- Success of private label water comes at the expense of mid-tier brands
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- Figure 4: Water attitudes, brand loyalty, any agree, by gender and generation, December 2020
- Pandemic reduces frequency of key bottled water consumption occasions
- Opportunities
- Pandemic makes bottled water a “must have” necessity
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- Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing more bottled water, December 2020
- Reinforce consumers’ bottled water stocking behaviors
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- Figure 6: Water stocking behaviors, bottled water vs sparkling water, among water type consumers, December 2020
- Sparkling water sales soar, product innovation will push the market to new highs
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Make water the ultra-functional beverage
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- Figure 8: Water functional benefit appeal, most appealing and any appeal, December 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- The pandemic offers short term benefits despite loss of key consumption occasions
- Psychological scars of the pandemic solidifies bottled water as a necessity
- Brands must address sustainability concerns
- Decline of national brands indicative of the market’s future
- Sparkling water encroaches on CSD consumption occasions
Market Size and Forecast
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- Water rises as pandemic rages
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on bottled water and sparkling water
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on still and sparkling water, July 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Consumers traded down and dropped out during Great Recession
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- Figure 12: Total US sales of packaged water, 2006-2011
Segment Performance
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- Bottled water’s performance points to a future slowdown
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Sparkling water market continues to bubble
- Jug water is growing sleepy category ripe for disruption
- Falling c-store sales indicates loss of impulse-driven purchases
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales of still and sparkling waters, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Market Factors
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- Panic creates a sense of needing to be prepared, benefiting the water market
- Water loses key social and travel occasions
- Sustainability takes a back seat to safety in the short term
- Innovations in home water filtration challenges the market
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- Figure 16: Total US sales of water filtration products*, at current prices, 2015-20
- Water benefits as consumers seek to lose the Quarantine-15
- Population changes pose future challenges to the bottled water market
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- Figure 17: Population by generation, 2016-26
- Prolonged economic recovery will result in more bottled water brand trading behaviors
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- Figure 18: US unemployment rate, January 2007-January 2021
- Figure 19: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007- February 2021
Market Opportunities
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- Water needs to go big
- Private label water can offer consumers more
- Water can enhance the great outdoors
- Flavor innovation keeps sparkling water interesting
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- Figure 20: Top 30 sparkling water flavors, % of product launches by year, 2017 vs 2020
- Figure 21: Experience and interest in non-alcoholic beverage flavors, November 2019
- Sustainability is a status symbol
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- Figure 22: US Water product launches, select ethical claims, % of annual product launches, 2017-20
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Bottled water market splits in two directions
- Sparkling water elicits brand loyalty
- Added functionality makes water the ultimate BFY drink
Market Share
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- Private label wins the water wars during the pandemic
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- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of convenience/pet still water, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Sparkling water soars as consumers seek flavor experiences
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- Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of seltzer/sparkling/mineral water, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies – A Focus on Functionality
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- Now: Changes in exercise activities creates new opportunities for easy-drinking water/sports drinks hybrid
- Next: Oxygenated water can build off the success of alkaline water
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- Figure 25: Recovery + Rise: Stephen Curry
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- Figure 26: Recovery + Rise: James, Frontline Transit Driver
- Now: Pandemic increases demand for immune-support waters
- Next: connect gut health with immune health
- Now: Sleep/relaxation waters offer consumers respite
- Next: botanical waters use adaptogens as a hero ingredient with catch-all benefits
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Bottled water consumers are not the same as sparkling water consumers
- Increased time at home was a double-edged sword for the bottled water market
- Positive perceptions of bottled water override environmental concerns among category users
- Leverage water’s health halo to create the ultimate functional beverage
Water Consumption
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- Lower bottled water consumption among young consumers indicates future issues
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- Figure 27: Water consumption, December 2020
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- Figure 28: Water consumption, by generation, December 2020
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- Figure 29: Water consumption, by age and HHI, December 2020
Water Stocking Behaviors
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- Bottled water is a necessity for category purchasers
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- Figure 30: Water stocking behaviors, bottled water vs sparkling water, among water type consumers, December 2020
- Sparkling water is a must-have for Millennials and high-income consumers
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- Figure 31: Water stocking behaviors, bottled water, among water type consumers, by generation, December 2020
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- Figure 32: Water stocking behaviors, sparkling water, among water type consumers, by generation, December 2020
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- Figure 33: Water stocking behaviors, bottled water, among water type consumers, by HHI, December 2020
- Figure 34: Water stocking behaviors, sparkling water, among water type consumers, by HHI, December 2020
Changes in Bottled Water Purchases and Why
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- Category purchasers are highly engaged consumers
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- Figure 35: Changes in unflavored bottled water purchases, by select demographics, December 2020
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- Figure 36: Changes in unflavored bottled water purchases, by water type consumers, December 2020
- Pandemic propels the bottled water market
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- Figure 37: Reasons for purchasing more bottled water, December 2020
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- Figure 38: Reasons for purchasing more bottled water, by age, December 2020
- Increased time at home is a double-edge sword
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- Figure 39: Reasons for purchasing less bottled water, December 2020
Water Flavor Interest
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- Make unique flavors a market differentiator
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- Figure 40: Water flavor interest, among still and sparkling water consumers, December 2020
- Core sparkling water consumers want flavor experiences
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- Figure 41: Water flavor interest, by water stocking behaviors, December 2020
- Flavor variety can make bottled water more appealing to younger consumers
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- Figure 42: Water flavor interest, by generation, December 2020
Water Attitudes
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- Consumers hold positive views of bottled water despite sustainability hesitancies
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- Figure 43: Water attitudes, any agree, December 2020
- Lower bottled water brand loyalty may result in trade-down behaviors
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- Figure 44: Water attitudes, brand loyalty, any agree, by gender and generation, December 2020
- Black consumers view bottled water in a positive light
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- Figure 45: Water attitudes, any agree, by race/ethnicity, December 2020
- Opportunity for highly sustainable sparkling waters
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- Figure 46: Water attitudes – CHAID – tree output, December 2020
Functional Benefits Interest
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- Functional benefits enhance water’s health halo
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- Figure 47: Water functional benefit appeal, most appealing and any appeal, December 2020
- Reach unique consumer groups through functional claims
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- Figure 48: Water functional benefit appeal, any appeal, by gender and age, December 2020
- Immune system support can be the foundation on which to build additional benefits
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- Figure 49: Water functional benefit appeal, any appeal, by select water type consumers, December 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of still and sparkling waters, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales of still and sparkling waters, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of convenience/pet still water, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of convenience/pet still water, by value and volume, 2015-20
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- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of jug/bulk still water, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of jug/bulk still water, by value and volume, 2015-20
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of seltzer/sparkling/mineral water, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 57: Multi-outlet sales of seltzer/sparkling/mineral water, by value and volume, 2015-20
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Appendix – Company and Brands
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- Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of still and sparkling water, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of jug/bulk still water, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- CHAID Methodology
- CHAID Results
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- Figure 60: Water attitudes – CHAID – tree table, December 2020
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